COVID-19 Virginia update: Data continues to trend very positively

Virginia covid-19

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The seven-day average of new COVID-19 cases in Virginia is less than half the level from three weeks ago.

COVID-19 hospitalizations are at a three-month low.

Everything is trending great, despite, again, the headlines, which are written by imbeciles.

Of course, the headlines are about other states, which you will likely hear about tomorrow when Gov. Ralph Northam updates the Commonwealth on the public health situation.

You’ve been reading or hearing plenty about rising case numbers in Florida, Texas and Arizona, though the reports are leaving out a key detail: that the average age of the new COVID-19 cases in those locales is skewing dramatically younger, into populations that don’t suffer the same level of impact as older populations.

Also being left out: the hospital systems in those three states are still operating with significant open capacity.

Arizona is the closest to capacity at this point, with 17 percent of its hospital beds currently open.

This is an increase from back on May 25, when 28 percent of that state’s hospital beds were open, and the increase in the number of beds used correlates almost 1:1 with the increase in COVID-19 patients.

Texas and Florida both still have more than a quarter of their hospital systems’ available beds still open. Texas is operating at 74.9 percent of its capacity today, meaning 25.1 percent of its beds are open, and Florida is at 72.2 percent, with 27.8 percent of its beds open.

Virginia hospitals are operating at 73.8 percent of capacity, with 26.2 percent of beds open, and a three-month low of 848 COVID-19 patients hospitalized, according to the Virginia Hospital & Healthcare Association dashboard.

That number is down 44.4 percent from the recent peak of 1,524 on May 29.

Other Virginia metrics trending positive

  • The seven-day average for new reported COVID-19 cases is 511, down 57.2 percent from the May 31 peak of 1,195.
  • Another seven-day average low, for date of symptom onset. This one dates back to June 14, since there would need to be a lag there. The number: 382 new COVID-19 cases onset on June 14, is down 61.3 percent from the May 21 peak of 988.3.

Demographics trends

COVID-19 deaths in long-term care facilities from today’s Virginia Department of Health update are at 1,005, 62.0 percent of the 1,620 total COVID-19 deaths reported in Virginia.

More than half of Virginia’s COVID-19 deaths – 828, 51.1 percent – have come among those aged 80 and older.

The case fatality rate among those under 60 is .33 percent. Using the 7:1 ratio for total projected cases for each confirmed case from the UVA Biocomplexity Institute, the infection fatality rate for those under 60 would fall at .047 percent, which translates to a survival rate of 99.953 percent.

Those numbers – the bulk of deaths coming among those over 80 and those in long-term care, and the minuscule risk of death for those under 60 – have been trending this way for the past couple of months.

Story by Chris Graham


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