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Concert Tour odds drift as former Kentucky Derby favorite loses

horse racing
(© Daren Whitaker – stock.adobe.com)

As we head into the final prep races before the 2021 Kentucky Derby the odds for this year’s favorites are shifting up and down with surprise victories, defeats and a general surprise in form for some of the horses.

In all, there will have been 46 prep races, which started back on 5 September with the Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs, spanning 24 tracks across three continents. The field will be narrowed down to 20 thoroughbred horses come 1 May based on the points they have scored over the past eight months.

Bob Baffert’s Concert Tour had been the sportsbooks’ early favorite until the weekend when he only finished third in a field of six at Oaklawn Park. The three-year-old had previously won all three career meetings and had been the 3/10 favorite starting the weekend’s race.

Hall of Fame trainer Baffert has experienced six wins at this event before, on par with Ben A. Jones from the 1930s-50s and is on a hot streak in recent years. Baffert saw his fourth victory in 2015 with American Pharoah, followed by Justify in 2018 and last year’s winner, Authentic.

Baffert won’t be panicking heading into the race at Churchill Downs next month, but his horse is now down to third favorite. A price of 8/1 may tempt many and it’s well worth reading the Kentucky Derby handicapping on twinspires.com before making your decision.

Essential Quality is now the current favorite with the sportsbooks with a price of 5/2. Brad H Cox’s horse won with a neck victory over Highly Motivated at Keeneland last weekend and is now five out of five in its career.

John W. Sadler’s Rock Your World has seen his odds drop to 11/2 as second favorite for the Kentucky Derby. The horse is a perfect three out of three in its career, winning at MSW on New Year’s Day, the Pasadena Stakes at the end of February and its final prep race, the $700,000 Runhappy Santa Anita Derby on 3 April at Santa Anita Park.

Rock Your World has run away with all three of its races and is a surprise to many punters that it’s not the favorite for the Kentucky Derby, particularly with the recent loss from Concert Tour. It had headed into its final prep race with questions as to whether his talent would translate onto dirt. He answered emphatically.

A winner outside of the three aforementioned names would come as a surprise, with Highly Motivated and Super Stock both 10/1, then re Bourbonic at 14/1 and Medina Spirit back at 16/1.

Super Stock’s odds have dropped to that price having won at Oaklawn Park, ahead of Concert Tour in third. Given it was Steven Asmussen’s horse’s first win in its sixth career race, few are expected to back it at that price.

It was only a week ago that Bourbonic was a 75/1 long shot for the event at Churchill Downs, but a recent winner of the Wood Memorial has seen the odds come down and now set to head into the Kentucky Derby just behind the favorites.


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