Chris Saxman: Cold Fusion-Imagine Edition
With apologies to John Lennon, who in a previous Cold Fusion was outed as a Born Again Christian Reagan Republican, the lyrics to his famous song “Imagine” follow this post in, as Jimmy Buffet would say, “a slightly different point of view.”
Okay…I’m a little sick and tired of the election just like you are, but let’s get one thing straight real quick – other than Gallup and Rasmussen, the polling being reported is bupkis.
I’m trying not to think it is intentional, but it is getting out of hand.
The race is tied. I know Rasmussen has Romney up 2 and Gallup has Obama up 1 but that just means it’s tied. I have been tracking the Rasmussen cross tabs and there is some significant changes within the polling on which the campaigns are no doubt focusing. I’ll get to some of the key numbers but first we all need to call BS on some polls.
NBC +6 for Obama? Sure thing when your sample is 32% Democrat and 25% GOP.
Pew +8 for Obama? Sure thing when your sample is 37% Democrat and 30% GOP
Pew has Obama and Romney TIED among Independents but Obama leading by EIGHT? Whiskey Tango Foxtrot.
In Virginia, recent polls have also defied logic.
Quinnipiac +4 Obama? Sure thing when your sample is 35% Democrat and 24% GOP.
Washington Post +8 Obama? Sure thing when your sample is 32% Democrat and 24% GOP.
Largely unreported is the fact that black pastors are telling their congregations not to vote. At all.
That’s kind of big deal and a lot bigger deal that what gaffe either campaign is committing or exploiting. Why? Well, Virginia’s population in 20% black, Florida’s is 16% and Ohio’s is 12%. When black pastors are telling their congregations not to vote to re-elect Barack Obama, it’s a MUCH bigger story than Romney’s 47% comment or the video of Obama saying he supports redistribution of wealth.
Gaffes and comments rarely turn elections, they typically support existing narratives.
What will determine the outcome of this election is, in my honest opinion, whether or not the Team Romney can 1) Make the case that Obama has not done what he said he was going to do 2) And that’s bad and 3) offer a CLEAR alternative to making the future better.
Inside Rasmussen cross tabs, you will find black support for Obama falling from weekly highs of 95% and daily spikes up to 99% last month now down to 87%. Other pollsters are using 2008 turnout models and if they cannot tell the difference between 95% black support for Obama in 2008 and 87% in 2012, then they have some ‘splaining to do.
Recent Rasmussen daily tracking polls have shown Mitt Romney leading in Colorado and New Hampshire, ahead in the Swing State polling and National Daily polling. If you turn on the television – and you shouldn’t – all you hear is that the race is over or Team Romney needs to get its act together because it will be over soon.
Um…no. Romney is up by two in Rasmussen and only down one in Gallup. Both are daily tracking polls and highly respected.
While Mitt Romney participated in 23 GOP primary debates, Barack Obama has gone up against Entertainment Tonight, David Letterman and four really tough interviews on The View.
So hang in there. The large majority of pundits have never run for office, never been in allocation meetings, broken down cross tabs on multi state polls and never ever have they gone head to head on live national television for the presidency of These Here States United. Right now they are filling air time. With BS polling numbers…for a reason.
Imagine there’s no polling.
It’s easy if you try
No Obama ads on YouTube
Won’t see Romney on SportsCenter
Imagine your phone not ringing for just a day.
Imagine there’s no Fundraisers
After Embassy attacks
No gaffes or out of context remarks.
And no unqualified commentators on FOX and MSNBC
Imagine all the people talking with just their friends.
You may say I am voter
But I’m not the only one
I hope some day soon you will vote
early and only once, this ain’t Chicago.
Imagine no voter fraud,
Intimidation or suppression.
No need for lies, innuendo or race baiting.
Only one man having one vote.
Imagine all the people being left alone.
You may say I am voter,
but I’m not the only one.
We hope some day you’ll be election free
And live your lives accordingly!