Turn out the lights, the party’s over. But it was a damn good run by Virginia to get thisclose to being on the bubble, wasn’t it?
That’s what a 30-foot prayer at the buzzer being answered means for Virginia.
This team, with early losses to Navy and JMU, could not stand a hiccup against another 100+ NET team.
The one thing that the Cavaliers had going for them, until Saturday’s loss, was the eye test.
Assuming Virginia had held serve and beaten Florida State and then Louisville next week, the ‘Hoos would have been 8-3 in their last 11 games, with two wins over Miami and a 1-1 record against Duke in that stretch.
Now where are eyes are, after the buzzer-beater loss to FSU, NET 107 coming into Saturday, is on the three losses in the last four games.
Virginia can still go and get a road W next weekend at NET 122 Louisville, then set its sights on making a run in Brooklyn, but it’s going to have to be a deep run, maybe – probably – all the way to Saturday night.
Win at Louisville, and Virginia is 7-4 in its last 11, still with that 3-1 record against Miami and Duke, one loss on a 30-footer at the buzzer, two losses to NCAA Tourney locks Duke and Notre Dame that weren’t decided until the final couple of seconds, another one at a bubble team, Virginia Tech, with whom Virginia had a season split.
Virginia is playing on Wednesday in Brooklyn, as either the six or seven seed. The ‘Hoos need a win against whichever double-digit seed gets past Tuesday, then an upset of the two or three seed, either Notre Dame, North Carolina, Miami or Wake Forest, on Thursday, to get to Friday.
That would earn Virginia, most likely, the other from among Notre Dame, North Carolina, Miami or Wake Forest, in the semifinals.
A win there, and you’re at three for the week, two against likely NCAA teams.
I don’t know that Virginia would then need to win the whole damn thing to guarantee a bid, because UVA would then be at no worse than 10-5 in its last 15, with five wins against NCAA Tourney teams, but it certainly wouldn’t hurt.
All of this is a nice fantasy, and yes, this Virginia team can beat any of these teams, with the possible exception of North Carolina, which plastered the ‘Hoos in Chapel Hill back in January.
Virginia has the two wins over Miami, played Wake Forest well in a loss in JPJ, played Notre Dame well in a loss in South Bend, split with Duke in a pair of scintillating games that both came down to the final seconds.
The idea that this team, with a short seven-man rotation, nothing in the way of consistent perimeter shooters, bigs who either dominate or hibernate, depending on the night and their state of mind, the two best players being undersized for their positions, can get to Saturday night in Brooklyn is the stuff of a script for a movie that not even Disney would greenlight.
This team is, at best, NIT-bound, and I say at best because, there’s two tough ones to go, at Louisville to close the regular season, and then a second-round game in the ACC Tournament against the likes of, perhaps, Clemson (which split with Virginia), Pitt (which lost a pair of tight games to the ‘Hoos), NC State (which blew out UVA in Raleigh).
The ceiling for this group is a fairy-tale run to prime time on Saturday night against Duke, and a 21-13 finish that gets the Cavaliers into the First Four or a 22-12 finish that gets them the fourth 10 seed.
The floor is losses to Louisville and on Wednesday in Brooklyn, and a 17-14 finish that probably ends there.
Reality is somewhere in between – I’m thinking a win at Louisville, a win on Wednesday in Barclays, a double-digit loss in the tournament quarterfinals, a 19-13 finish that gets the ‘Hoos a three or four seed in the NIT.
After the losses in November and December to Navy and JMU, this is the most of what we could have expected.
The win at Duke and the 18-point blowout of Providence back in November will be our highlights, and we’ll want to root like hell for both to make tourney runs so we can say, see, when our guys were at their best, they were pretty good.
And then, we set our sights to next season, which promises to be a bit more fun, with the best recruiting class since 2016 set to matriculate.
Story by Chris Graham
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