Bracketology: Where Virginia stands after another Top 10 win

UVA basketballVirginia beat another Top 10 team on Saturday, but the computers, being computers, not impressed.

The ‘Hoos bumped up 1.6 places in the average rating among NET, KenPom, KPI, Sagarin, and ESPN’s BPI and Strength of Record metrics.

You’re seriously better off being Minnesota with a losing record losing at home than Virginia winning eight straight and 11 of 12.

I digress.

The Cavaliers are 5-3 in Quadrant 1 games and 7-3 in Quadrant 2 games.

These seem like good records.

Duke, for instance is 5-3 in Q1 and 6-2 in Q2. Louisville: 4-6 Q1, 6-1 Q2.

Florida State: 6-3 Q1, 8-2 Q2.

The system should reward teams with good records against the best teams, right?

FSU, who celebrity bracketologist Joe Lunardi has as a two seed, is 14-5 against Q1 and Q2.

Virginia has the second most wins among the ACC teams in those games: 12-6.

Lunardi: Virginia is a six.

Duke is 11-5 against Q1 and Q2. Lunardi has Duke as a three.

Louisville is 10-7 against Q1 and Q2. Lunardi has Louisville as a four.

Whatever.

Virginia (23-7, 15-5 ACC)

NET: 41 KenPom: 44 KPI: 17 Sagarin: 22 ESPN BPI: 37 ESPN SOR: 17
AVG. RATING: 30.2 (+1.6 since Thursday)
Q1: 5-3 Q2: 7-3 Q3: 5-1 Q4: 5-0
Road: 7-4
Team Rankings Bracket Projection: 5 seed (bid probability: 100%)
Up Next: ACC Tournament (Thursday)

Story by Chris Graham


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