67 picks, 67 sentences: Zach Pereles makes his picks for the 2019 NCAA Tournament

It’s that time of year. The greatest time of year for a sports fan. The NCAA Tournament.

The premise is simple: One sentence explaining every pick, from the first game of the tournament — Louisville vs. Minnesota — to the finale three-and-a-half weeks later in Minneapolis. Let the madness begin.

EAST — ROUND OF 64

(1) Duke over (16) NC Central/N. Dakota St.: Welcome to Zion mania.

(8) Virginia Commonwealth over (9) UCF: Great, experienced guards win in March, and that’s what the Rams have in Marcus Evans.

(5) Mississippi St. over (12) Liberty: Ben Howland, with postseason experience of several great years at UCLA, steadily leads the Bulldogs, who are dancing for the first time since 2009.

(4) Virginia Tech over (13) St. Louis: The Hokies’ offense simply outscores the Billikens, who struggle shooting.

(11) Belmont over (6) Maryland: Mark Turgeon hasn’t won an NCAA Tournament game since 2016, and it stays that way thanks to the floor-spacing Bruins.

(3) Louisiana St. over (14) Yale: Pegged by many as the obvious high seed to fall thanks to off-court scandal, the Tigers prove they can still get it done where it matters: on the court.

(2) Michigan State over (15) Bradley: Tom Izzo and the Spartans make sure Bradley’s first trip to the Big Dance since 2006 is a short one.

SOUTH — ROUND OF 64

(1) Virginia over (16) Gardner-Webb: It’s not last year.

(8) Mississippi over (9) Oklahoma: Sure, the Rebels struggled down the stretch, but it’s a surprise the Sooners made it here at all.

(5) Wisconsin over (12) Oregon: Dana Altman has his Ducks quacking in March again, but a woeful Pac-12 doesn’t help their cause against the tough-minded Badgers.

(4) Kansas St. over (13) UC Irvine: It’s another popular upset pick I don’t see happening; Bruce Weber knows how to win in March, even without Dean Wade.

(6) Villanova over (11) Saint Mary’s: There’s a lot of love for the Gaels because they won their most-watched game, but Villanova is a better team and a Big East champion yet again.

(14) Old Dominion over (3) Purdue: Matt Painter’s Boilermakers showed a lot of heart in winning the Big Ten regular season crown, but their reliance on Carsen Edwards comes back to bite them against a very solid ODU squad that knocked off both VCU at home and Syracuse on the road in the non-conference slate.

(7) Cincinnati over (10) Iowa: Under Mick Cronin, the Bearcats are always a pain for opponents in March, and they’ll wear down the high-scoring Hawkeyes, who have lost five of six coming in

(2) Tennessee over (15) Colgate: The Volunteers’ physicality will be too much for the Raiders and Patriot League Player of the Year Rapolas Ivanauskas.

 

 

MIDWEST — ROUND OF 64

(1) North Carolina over (16) Iona: The Gaels are in their fourth consecutive NCAA Tournament but have only gotten past the Round of 64 once: in 1980.

(9) Washington over (8) Utah St.: Another product of the putrid Pac-12, the Huskies have the perfect stopper — all-world defender Matisse Thybulle — against Aggies star Sam Merrill.

(5) Auburn over (12) New Mexico St.: This year’s version of Chris Jans’ Aggies is worse defensively and better offensively than last year’s, but still not enough to keep up with the SEC Tournament champs.

(4) Kansas over (13) Northeastern: In a tough year for the Jayhawks, Dedric Lawson still doesn’t get enough credit.

(6) Iowa St. over (10) Ohio St.: The Cyclones can score at will and just won the Big 12 tourney, which is enough to beat a very “meh” Buckeyes team.

(3) Houston over (14) Georgia State: Ron Hunter and the Panthers memorably pulled off an upset as a 14 seed when they beat Baylor in 2015, but they haven’t made much noise since and won’t against a tough Houston team.

(10) Seton Hall over (7) Wofford: The streaky Myles Powell has a penchant for coming up big in big moments, which means trouble for everyone’s favorite Mid-Major.

(2) Kentucky over (15) Abilene Christian: Abilene Christian joined Division I in 2013 and is making its first appearance, but the Wildcats, fueled by a loss to Tennessee in the SEC Tournament semifinal, won’t provide a warm welcome.

WEST — ROUND OF 64

(1) Gonzaga over (16) Farleigh Dickinson: The ‘Zags bounce back from the St. Mary’s loss easily.

(8) Syracuse over (9) Baylor: The Bears can attack the offensive glass with the best of ‘em, especially against the Syracuse zone, but they probably can’t make enough shots over top of it to win, and Jim Boeheim’s last Round-of-64 exit was in 2006.

(5) Marquette over (12) Murray St.: The Golden Eagles have a better team surrounding their star point guard (Markus Howard) than the Racers do surrounding theirs (Ja Morant).

(4) Florida St. over (13) Vermont: Don’t underestimate the Catamounts, but the Seminoles are too much with their depth, size and athleticism.

(6) Buffalo over (11) Arizona St./St. Johns: There will be a lot of points scored in this game, but the majority of them will come from Buffalo.

(3) Texas Tech over (14) Northern Kentucky: This year’s Red Raiders are better than last year’s version, which went to the Elite Eight.

(10) Florida over (7) Nevada: Nevada crashed last year’s Sweet 16 with two impressive wins, but this year it crashes out early against an experienced and talented Florida team.

(2) Michigan over (15) Montana: The Wolverines beat the Grizzlies to open last year’s tournament, and they’ll do it again this year.

EAST — ROUND OF 32

(1) Duke over (8) VCU: The Rams’ defense will frustrate the young Blue Devils at times, but it won’t be enough.

(4) Virginia Tech over (5) Mississippi St.: With Justin Robinson back, the Hokies are primed to advance past the first weekend for the first time since 1967.

(11) Belmont over (3) LSU: The Bruins bomb away from deep led by potential NBA pick-and-pop guy Dylan Windler, and the Tigers’ poor outside shooting dooms them.

(2) Michigan St. over (7) Louisville: This is one of the best coaching jobs of Tom Izzo’s outstanding coaching career, and he beats another very good coach, Chris Mack, to get to the second weekend.

SOUTH — ROUND OF 32

(1) Virginia over (8) Mississippi: Kermit Davis has done a wonderful job in his first year with the Rebels, but their awful three-point defense comes back to haunt them here.

(5) Wisconsin over (4) Kansas St.: In a battle between two of college basketball’s most disciplined teams, the Badgers have the best player on the court (Ethan Happ) and take home the win at the end of the day.

(6) Villanova over (14) Old Dominion: The Wildcats have been up-and-down this year after losing a ton of players from last year’s national championship squad, but seniors Phil Booth and Eric Paschall can still shoulder the load when needed.

(2) Tennessee over (7) Cincinnati: I gave the American Athletic Conference tourney champs a lot of thought here, especially given Rick Barnes’ suspect of Big Dance track record, but Grant Williams and Admiral Schofield will make life too hard on AAC Player of the Year Jarron Cumberland for the Bearcats to pull the upset.

MIDWEST — ROUND OF 32

(1) UNC over (8) Washington: Washington even getting here would be a nice small victory for a Pac-12 conference that needs any good news it can get.

(5) Auburn over (4) Kansas: The Tigers, with an elite offense and a defense that leads the nation in steal percentage, will give the young Kansas backcourt nightmares.

(6) Iowa St. over (3) Houston: The Cougars are gritty and battled-tested from years past, but the Cyclones are too much offensively and played three great games defensively in their conference tourney triumph, an encouraging sign for Steve Prohm.

(2) Kentucky over (10) Seton Hall: This will be a delightful second-round matchup if it happens: The Pirates knocked off the Wildcats, 84-83, in a highly entertaining Madison Square Garden showdown in early December.

WEST — ROUND OF 32

(1) Gonzaga over (8) Syracuse: The Orange have the length to give Mark Few’s team problems, but they can’t score enough to catch the nation’s most efficient offense.

(4) Florida St. over (5) Marquette: The Seminoles will rotate big, strong bodies on Markus Howard all game long, making life miserable on the Big East Player of the Year.

(3) Texas Tech over (6) Buffalo: In a battle of the offensively minded Bulls and defensively minded Red Raiders, it’s defense — plus future lottery pick Jarrett Culver — that moves on.

(2) Michigan over (10) Florida: The Gators destroyed the Wolverines on the gridiron with a 41-15 Peach Bowl win, but on the hardwood, Jim Beilein just wins and wins in March.

EAST — SWEET 16

(1) Duke over (4) Virginia Tech: The Hokies need to be near automatic from deep to pull the shocker, and they won’t be against Duke’s outstanding defense.

(2) Michigan St. over (11) Belmont: The Cinderella story ends here for the Bruins thanks to the great play of Big Ten Player of the Year Cassius Winston.

SOUTH — SWEET 16

(1) Virginia over (4) Wisconsin: It’ll be a low-possession, low-scoring battle, but the Cavaliers are just fine with that, and they are more versatile offensively.

(2) Tennessee over (6) Villanova: The Volunteers’ offense is among the nation’s best, and the Admiral Schofield-Grant Williams duo is about as tough as they come.

MIDWEST — SWEET 16

(1) UNC over (5) Auburn: Roy Williams’ team has the combination of skill and experience to play deep into the tourney, and the improved defense plays a big role as the Tar Heels slow the Tigers’ explosive offense.

(2) Kentucky over (6) Iowa St.: The difference between this Kentucky team and recent ones that have been bounced early is senior big man Reid Travis, a steady calming force around mercurial youngsters.

WEST — SWEET 16

(4) Florida St. over (1) Gonzaga: The ‘Zags can fend off one long ACC team but not two as the Seminoles head back to the Elite Eight for the second consecutive year.

(3) Texas Tech over (2) Michigan: In a battle of two outstanding defensive teams, Jarrett Culver, Matt Mooney and sharpshooter Davide Moretti send Chris Beard to his second straight Elite Eight.

EAST — ELITE EIGHT

(1) Duke over (2) Michigan St.: The Spartans have been wonderfully resilient, and it’s hard to bet against Tom Izzo, but Duke’s length, skill and athleticism is tough to stop no matter who’s coaching.

SOUTH — ELITE EIGHT

(1) Virginia over (2) Tennessee: Two of the nation’s toughest teams feature experience and skill all over, but the Cavaliers’ three-point excellence is the difference.

MIDWEST — ELITE EIGHT

(2) Kentucky over (1) UNC: The Wildcats beat the Tar Heels at a neutral site in December and have improved greatly since, led by athletic big man PJ Washington, who, alongside Reid Travis, will hound Luke Maye and limit Carolina’s offensive rebounds.

WEST — ELITE EIGHT

(4) Florida St. over (3) Texas Tech: Leonard Hamilton took the Seminoles to the Elite Eight last year, and they are better this year, meaning they go another step closer to a national championship.

FINAL FOUR

(1) Duke over (4) Florida St.: A rematch of the ACC Tournament championship goes in the Blue Devils’ favor again because they match up well athletically and, well, Zion Williamson exists.

(1) Virginia over (2) Kentucky: The Cavaliers have the personnel across the board and have superior scoring guards — no one on Kentucky wants to chase around either Kyle Guy or Ty Jerome.

CHAMPIONSHIP

(1) Virginia over (1) Duke: The Cavaliers made the wrong type of history a year ago; they make the right type of history this year.