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Who has a better shot at opening weekend upset: UVA or Virginia Tech?

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uva-vt1Both UVA and Virginia Tech face tall orders in their 2015 college football season openers. The Cavs travel across the country to face #13 UCLA in the Rose Bowl on Saturday, and on Monday, the Hokies will host #1 Ohio State in Lane Stadium.

Neither are given much of a chance by the oddsmakers. Virginia is a 19- to 20-point underdog at UCLA, and Tech is a 13- to 14-point ‘dog to the defending national champion Buckeyes.

But there is hope for both. UCLA named true freshman Josh Rosen its starting quarterback, and while Rosen, the number one QB recruit in the Class of 2015, is talented, he’s likely to go through some growing pains in his first live action, particularly against UVA defensive coordinator Jon Tenuta’s mix of coverages.

Ohio State, meanwhile, might be licking its chops a bit too much looking for revenge from its one loss in 2014, which came at the hands of Virginia Tech, by two touchdowns at home in the Horseshoe in September.

The Buckeyes are also playing without All-America defensive end Joey Bosa, who is among four members of the two-deep for Ohio State missing the opener for undisclosed violations of team rules.

That, plus an unsettled quarterback situation, plus the emotion of playing a team that put the only pockmark on your national-title season, all are significant factors heading into Labor Day Night.

Back to Virginia at UCLA: we’ve heard this story before, about a season opener between these two where the Bruins are prohibitive favorites. The 2014 opener was supposed to be a UCLA cakewalk, with the Bruins quarterback Brett Hundley coming in as a Heisman candidate, but Tenuta dialed up a game plan that limited UCLA to a single offensive touchdown, the difference in the game being a sloppy second quarter by the Virginia offense, which dished up two pick-sixes and a fumble return for a TD in what turned into a 28-20 loss.

The Virginia offense that will make its debut Saturday will look very different than the one that Jim Mora and his staff schemed against last year, with a deeper offensive line, the right quarterback, Matt Johns, taking the snaps, and a focus on running the ball downhill and setting up the pass off the run.

Just don’t turn the ball over, pack the box to force UCLA into third-and-longs, and UVA can shock the world.

Virginia Tech used a similar kind of game plan to defeat Ohio State last year, stacking the line of scrimmage to take away the run, harassing J.T. Barrett into an awful day (9-for-29, 219 yards, 1 TD/3 INTs), and getting enough out of its offense to, yes, shock the world.

Bottom line: both of the Commonwealth’s teams have the chance to pull the upset this weekend.

– Column by Chris Graham

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