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Vegas NFL Season win total picks

nflBy T.O. Whenham of Doc’s Sports

The ridiculously overhyped circus that is the NFL Draft is in the rearview mirror. Free agency is mostly wrapped up. A lot of changes will still come, but teams look more like they will next season than they have at any point up until now. That means that this is a good time to look at NFL season win totals for some nice betting value. (All odds are from Bovada):

Arizona Cardinals (o/u 8.5): To go under here would mean that you think that last year was a fluke. I don’t. They haven’t exactly won the offseason, but the coaching is beyond excellent. Take the over.

Atlanta Falcons (o/u 8.5): It has been extremely easy to write this team off the last couple of years. Thankfully, though, they finally made a coaching change that was two years too late. I still don’t trust them mentally, but they are too good to be as bad as they have been. Take the over.

Baltimore Ravens (o/u 9): The leadership is good, and I’m a Joe Flacco guy. I keep waiting for them to go through a transition, though, and this sets up to be the year. Take the under.

Buffalo Bills (o/u 8.5): There is no shortage of talent on defense, and Rex Ryan has certainly brought the swagger to town. Last I checked you need a quarterback to play football, but that didn’t stop them last year, and the talent is better now. Take the over.

Carolina Panthers (o/u 8.5): I like Cam Newton, and I like that they didn’t make a coaching change. They still have some shortcomings, but most people are negative about the team based on the odds, so I’ll seek value and take the over.

Chicago Bears (o/u 7): The coaching change was needed, but in the short term it is not going to be enough. This team just has too much of a hole — mostly mental but partly Jay Cutler — to dig out of. Take the under.

Cincinnati Bengals (o/u 8.5): I have one unbreakable rule when it comes to the NFL — always doubt Marvin Lewis. He is the worst coach in football, and the rule doesn’t let me down over the long term. Take the under.

Cleveland Browns (o/u 6.5): Drama at quarterback. Lack of depth elsewhere. Everyone else is doubting this team. I might as well run with the crowd on this one. Take the under.

Dallas Cowboys (o/u 9.5): Jerry Jones has been easy to doubt over the years, but there is decent talent on both sides of the ball, and last year’s 12 wins were not an anomaly. The over is quite attractive here.

Denver Broncos (o/u 10): If another team had a quarterback who was old and fragile, and who looked as bad as Peyton Manning did late last year, there is no way the total would be here. I am all over the under here.

Detroit Lions (o/u 8): This marks the fourth year in a row that I have been bullish on this team. It hasn’t really worked out well for me. I’m not wavering. The quarterback is better than he has been, and the talent is solid. Take the over.

Green Bay Packers (o/u 11): Aaron Rodgers just won on “Celebrity Jeopardy”. What can’t he do? There isn’t a whole lot of room on the over, but I can’t justify taking the under. Take the over.

Houston Texans (o/u 8): I still wish Bill O’Brien wasn’t so stubbornly committed to playing without a QB. He is building the team he wants, though, and there is a lot to work with. Take the over.

Indianapolis Colts (o/u 11): This is the year that Andrew Luck takes his next big step forward. He has the tools, and he learned a lot from last season — especially from how it ended. Take the over.

Jacksonville Jaguars (o/u 5.5): It’s popular to doubt the ‘cursed’ Jags. Losing a top draft pick in his first hour on the field is rough, but I like a lot about this team, and they have room to move forward. There is value in the over.

Kansas City Chiefs (o/u 8.5): It’s hard to get too excited about this team. They seem like vanilla ice cream. If Denver takes a step back, though, Kansas City could benefit in the division. Take the over.

Miami Dolphins (o/u 8.5): Sometimes a number seems about right. This is one of those numbers. They won eight games last year. They are maybe better but maybe not. I’ll take the over, but it’s a coin flip.

Minnesota Vikings (o/u 7): I love the over here. Teddy Bridgewater was very good last year and should be even better with a year under his belt. The coaching is strong, and the talent is decent. The Adrian Peterson distraction will hopefully pass, and I’ll take the over enthusiastically.

New England Patriots (o/u 10): I’m not concerned about the Tom Brady suspension — mostly because I think there is no way at all it holds up under appeal. This team is obviously good, and it’s too driven to slide back after last year. Take the over.

New Orleans Saints (o/u 8.5): Popular wisdom was that last year’s disappointment was an anomaly. I’m not so sure. Things seemed stale in too many ways — offense, defense, leadership. That’s hard to shake off. Take the under.

New York Giants (o/u 8.5): Eli Manning was often a mess last year. I don’t think that that was a fluke. The talent isn’t good enough, the coaching desperately needed to change, and the division is tough. They could be better than last year, but not by tons. Take the under.

New York Jets (o/u 7.5): The coaching change was needed after the circus the team had become. It will take more than a year to solve some problems and get this team on track, though. Take the under.

Oakland Raiders (o/u 5.5): David Carr is a strong player, and the team is arguably moving in the right direction. It’s a very slow movement, though, and there is still a whole lot to overcome. Take the under.

Philadelphia Eagles (o/u 9): You have to give Chip Kelly credit for one thing — he is never boring. Will the complete overhaul work? Can Sam Bradford perform or even stay healthy? I have no horse in this race, and it’s more fun to cheer for him than against him. Take the over.

Pittsburgh Steelers (o/u 8.5): This team has been the model of professionalism for so long. They have lost leadership this year, though, and haven’t done enough to improve. Not even close. Take the under.

San Diego Chargers (o/u 8): I’m a bit concerned about the uncertainty around the team — Rivers’ status and where they will be playing next year. I like the coaching, though, and the talent is decent. Take the over.

San Francisco 49ers (o/u 7.5): I like literally nothing about the offseason the team had. Not a single thing. Take the under.

Seattle Seahawks (o/u 11): I am bearish on this team and expect some struggles. Of course, I said the same thing last year, so take this with a grain of salt. Take the under.

St. Louis Rams (o/u 8): There were some odd elements to the offseason, but it was generally positive. With an extra year for the coaching staff to implement their vision, I am somewhat positive. Take the over.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (o/u 6): I think Jameis Winston will be fine, but it will take a while for him to adjust. The team has too many issues to overcome in one year. This is another lost year for the team — though one with more optimism. Take the over.

Tennessee Titans (o/u 5.5): What I wrote for the Bucs could fit here, too. I like Mariota, and he’ll be fine with time. The team has too much to overcome in the short term, though. Take the under.

Washington Redskins (o/u 6.5): The day they decided to keep Jay Gruden at coach is the day I confirmed my decision not to have any faith in the organization. Take the under.

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