Poll: Virginians divided over State Senate split
A new Public Policy Polling survey reveals that Virginia voters think that Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling would be acting in accord with the state Constitution if he were to break a tie in favor of giving Republicans control olf the State Senate, but that at the same time the GOP should share power with Democrats in accord with the results of the November General Assembly elections.
Fifty-five percent of Virginia voters think there should be some sort of power-sharing arrangement, according to a PPP poll released Friday, while only 31 percent of voters think Republicans should have full control of the senior chamber. The key voting bloc there is independents, who side with Democrats in backing power-sharing by a 53 percent-to-28 percent margin.
The split in favor of Bolling’s power to vote to break ties is much closer – with 37 percent saying they feel he has the power to side with Republicans in the Senate organization and 34 percent saying they don’t think he has that power. Read more
Poll: Republicans have early lead over Dems in ’13 state races
Republicans Bill Bolling and Ken Cuccinelli both have early leads over potential Democratic gubernatorial challengers Terry McAuliffe and Tom Perriello.
Public Policy Polling has Bolling, the sitting lieutenant governor, leading McAuliffe by a 38 percent-to-33 percent margin and leading Perriello, the former Fifth District congressman, 39 percent to 32 percent. Cuccinelli, the sitting attorney general, leads McAuliffe 41 percent to 38 percent and Perriello 41 percent to 36 percent.
That the race on both sides is still very, very wide open is evident in the large numbers of voters who have no opinion one way or the other on any of the four. Sixty-six percent don’t know enough about Bolling, now in his second term as lieutenant governor, to have an opinion of him, while 64 percent have no opnion of Perriello, 59 percent say the same for McAuliffe and 35 percent say that for Cuccinelli.
Poll: Kaine early choice of Dems in 2012 Senate race
Tim Kaine has the solid support of Democratic primary voters in the early, early runup to the 2012 U.S. Senate race.
The former governor and current chairman of the Democratic National Committee was the choice of 53 percent of those polled by Public Policy Polling late last month. Congressman Bobby Scott and former congressmen Tom Perriello and Rick Boucher were in a tie for second in the polling at 9 percent each.
“Tim Kaine is the heavy-hitter who would be the strongest candidate against George Allen or any of the other Republicans,” said Dean Debnam, president of Public Policy Polling. “We’re showing Kaine and Allen neck-and-neck, but right now, Allen has healthy leads over the other two little-known Democrats, Boucher and Perriello.”
Kaine’s support is broad-based – 56 percent of moderate voters, 56 percent of “somewhat liberal” voters and 50 percent each of “very liberal” and “somewhat conservative” voters sided with Kaine in the poll.
Kaine has not announced his intentions for the Democratic Party nomination. Incumbent Sen. Jim Webb, a Democrat, said last month that he will not seek a second term in next year’s elections.
Story by Chris Graham. Chris can be reached at freepress2@ntelos.net.
Chris Graham: Draft Perriello?
It seems to me that Tim Kaine is the logical choice for Virginia Democrats looking for a Senate candidate in 2012 – and I wouldn’t call myself a political genius for thinking that way.
The conventional wisdom isn’t stopping a group of Virginia Dems who are pushing recently unseated former congressman Tom Perriello for the 2012 nomination.
“From job creation to health care to energy, Tom Perriello has worked for solutions to America’s biggest challenges,” said Aimee Fausser, a member of the Albemarle County Democratic Committee. “While we’ll support whoever wins the Democratic nomination, Tom has proven that he can both rally the progressive base and earn the support of independent voters.”
A Draft Perriello movement has indeed sprung up. A Facebook group for the movement has more than 800 members, and hundreds more have signed a petition at DraftPerriello.com.
“Tom Perriello arrived in Congress just as the GOP’s failed economic policies, championed by George W. Bush and George Allen, were stripping America’s economy of nearly a million jobs a month,” said Lowell Feld, editor of BlueVirginia.us and one of the founders of 2006′s Draft Webb movement. “But instead of shying away from the crisis, Tom took the challenge head-on. We need more leaders like Tom in the Senate.”
My take: Perriello would be a wonderful choice for Democrats if Kaine, a former governor and lieutenant governor, decides against running. (Which I don’t expect will be the case.) I can make the argument for a successful Perriello effort even in the wake of his loss in November to Republican Robert Hurt given his strong showings in 2008 and 2010 in the conservative Fifth District. The formula for successful Democratic campaigns in Virginia dating back to Mark Warner’s 2001 gubernatorial win is do well enough in Southside and Southwest and then clean up in Northern Virginia, Richmond and Hampton Roads. Perriello could run that kind of campaign.
The key distinction here is that while we can make the argument that Perriello can run that kind of campaign, Kaine has run that kind of campaign, twice, and been successful twice in statewide races.
To me, if Kaine runs, it would make the most sense for Democrats if the race for the Democratic nomination is a one-candidate race. Republicans will clearly be bitterly divided on their side of the ledger. I think Kaine wins straight up against George Allen (who I presume will emerge from the Republican dustup as the GOP nominee) by 5-7 points, and if somehow a second or third option emerges from the Republican side who is more to the liking of the Tea Party base, then we could be talking a Mark Warner-Jim Gilmore-level butt-whupping in the making.
A Perriello challenge to Kaine wounds both, but Kaine still emerges to run in November 2012, and maybe Perriello’s career ends up being set back a few years.
Bottom line: I don’t see it happening unless Kaine steps aside. At which point the Draft Perriello movement gets to be very, very interesting.
More columns from Chris at TheWorldAccordingToChrisGraham.com.
Tom Perriello: My final report to the people of the Fifth
Last week, I left the U.S. Congress after a final legislative act – unanimous passage of my bill to make sure that no American soldier is welcomed home from duty with a foreclosure notice. For the next two years, our heroes in uniform will be protected from foreclosure for at least 9 months after a tour of duty.
It has been an honor to serve the people of the fifth district in the 111th Congress. When you sent me to Washington, I promised to work as hard for you as you work for your own families. Last week, I released my second annual report summarizing the results we have delivered for the families and businesses of Central and Southside Virginia. When I took office, the economy was hemorrhaging 800,000 jobs every month, but I leave during the eleventh straight month of private sector job growth. After cutting taxes last year and last week, I leave office with Americans having their lowest tax levels in 60 years. We made reforms to keep Medicare funded for another generation, and had what the American Legion called “a banner year on veterans legislation.” And we put people to work helping nearly 2,000 district families reduce their electric bills through weatherization programs.
At the national level, my priority in Congress was to shift the economic conversation in Washington from protecting the most powerful to fighting for middle class Americans and Main Street businesses. I have always believed that we must get back to the basics of building, making, and growing things again in America in order to protect and rebuild our middle class. As I depart, I see signs that the elite economic consensus that has dominated Washington is starting to give way to common sense.
I repeatedly fought to close the misguided tax loopholes that reward companies who send Americans’ jobs overseas, and did not stop until that was signed into law. We cut 17 different taxes on small businesses and dramatically expanded support for small business loans. The House passed legislation to create the nation’s first manufacturing strategy, to reduce the utility bills of homeowners, and to go after China for manipulating its currency and illegally dumping its products. I fought for the Small Business Jobs Act to get credit flowing to small businesses and lower the tax burdens on expanding or creating a new business.
We have also invested in the foundation of a modern infrastructure that will help American companies outcompete China, India, and the world. We helped to win major investments in broadband access that will help local entrepreneurs start a business and let our children study from the world’s libraries. We made major investments in rail and roads, like the Robertson Bridge in Danville, and airports, like the runway extension in Charlottesville, and water treatment plants, like the new facility in Halifax, all of which are moving forward with important new investments.
I have helped to deliver $133.2 million of investment into our public schools, keeping teachers in the classroom and preventing massive hikes on property taxes. On education, in my first month in office, I co-authored a tuition tax credit to help families afford college, and in my last month in office, that tax credit was extended to continue helping hundreds of thousands of families realize the dream of a college degree for their child.
I am proud of my team that helped us respond to over 85,000 constituents and ensure that our seniors and veterans always had an ally within the government – helping to return over $3.5 million of earned benefits to local residents. We have worked hard to make it a little easier for all middle-class families to get by and to take steps back to a vibrant manufacturing and technology base. We have worked hard to flip the script about Southern Virginia from a story of pity to one of potential and make sure investors around the country see the great future ahead for our area as an east coast capital of the new energy economy. Because of the work we did together, I leave office knowing that the jobs of tomorrow are being created today from Danville to Charlottesville, and everywhere in between. We will not be defined just by where we have been, but also by where we are headed together to the next great chapter of our region’s history.
It has been a blessing to serve you and represent you in the 111th Congress.
Column by Tom Perriello
Tom Perriello: Permanent Medicare reimbursement fix
Last week, Congress took an important step to make sure that our senior citizens can continue to see their doctors for care by protecting the reimbursement rates for doctors who participate in the Medicare system. The House passed bipartisan legislation that blocks the 25 percent cut in Medicare payments to doctors that could have gone into effect on December 31, which will ensure seniors and military families will be able to continue to see their doctors. This legislation is fully paid for and now goes to the President for his signature.
While this legislation will ensure doctors and seniors have stability in the Medicare program for the next year, I believe we need a permanent fix to Medicare reimbursement rates instead of continually revisiting this question and introducing uncertainty for both doctors and seniors. Last year, I voted for legislation that established a permanent fix in the way Medicare pays physicians so that it will not be linked to the Sustainable Growth Rate. Permanent reform of physician payments in Medicare will help guarantee that Medicare beneficiaries continue to enjoy the excellent access to care that they do today.
This week, the House also voted to provide all seniors the equivalent of a cost-of-living adjustment for this year in response to the failure of the Social Security system to approve one. Passage required a two-thirds majority in this case, and unfortunately, congressional Republicans defeated the bill. I cosponsored and voted for this bill to provide one-time emergency payments of $250 to Social Security recipients, who will not receive a cost-of-living adjustment for the second year in a row. This payment would provide immediate support to seniors, veterans, railroad retirees and people with disabilities who receive Social Security to make ends meet during this tough time, and I’m disappointed that partisanship trumped protecting our seniors.
The Social Security cost-of-living formula is tied to the consumer price index, and due to the recession, inflation rates have remained low. However, real costs for seniors—like prescription drugs and utilities—have continued to rise dramatically, making the current formula unrealistic and ineffective. I have supported ways to change the COLA formulate to better reflect the reality of rising costs that seniors are facing.
Additionally last week, I voted against a continuing resolution to fund federal programs through the next year. I opposed the bill because I believe it was irresponsible of Congress not to pass a real budget this year, and the bill included new regulations on food that would be overly burdensome to our small famers. When family farms are struggling during these tough times, we do not need to be imposing new regulation on them.
Tom Perriello represents the Fifth District in the United States House of Representatives.
Tom Perriello: Middle-class tax cuts
Last week, Congress completed several pieces of overdue legislation to provide economic relief for the middle class and the unemployed, approve adequate reimbursements for doctors under Medicare, and to censure a senior legislator following an ethics investigation. In the weeks remaining in the 111th Congress, we have an opportunity and obligation to complete meaningful work on job creation and economic relief for working families, on a bipartisan basis wherever possible.
Our economy continues a slow but steady recovery, and we must not let anything happen to stifle the growth. When I took office, we were in the worst economy since the Great Depression. As this term nears its end, we have produced the eleventh consecutive month of private sector job growth. For months, I have said that it makes good economic sense to extend current tax cuts for those in the middle and working class that are scheduled to expire at the end of the year. Extending these tax cuts will help folks make ends meet and generate demand for goods and services. Failure to extend these cuts could hurt this fragile but real recovery.
Last week, the House voted to make permanent the current tax cuts for any individual who makes less than $200,000, or family who makes less than $250,000. This means that 98.5% of families and small business owners in the 5th District will continue to receive a tax cut on all their earnings. The top 1.5% of earners will still receive a tax cut on the first $200,000/$250,000 of income, but income over that will return to rates paid in the 1990s. This cut averages $1,000 for the typical middle class family.
There is near unanimous agreement on the wisdom of extending the current tax rates for families making less than $250,000, so Congress did the right thing in moving quickly to make these tax cuts permanent. However, there is considerable political and economic division over the wisdom of new tax cuts for top 1.5% that would add approximately $700 billion to the deficit. If the incoming Congress feels strongly about extending the tax cuts for the wealthy, they will have the opportunity to do so in January, but for now we should complete business on those elements on which most sides agree.
Until the job market rebounds, it is also appropriate to extend unemployment benefits to those who are looking for work but cannot find it. I voted again to fund our current unemployment programs, but that measure failed, and approximately 23,000 Virginians are in danger of losing this crucial lifeline over the holidays. The U.S. has never cut off unemployment benefits with joblessness rates this high, and I hope that Congress completes action before the end of the year to help 2 million Americans make it through a tough holiday season.
Our seniors gained an increased sense of security, as well, as Congress delayed for an additional month the scheduled 23% cut to doctors under Medicare. This looming cut has long been a problem and I hope that this additional month will give us the time to find a more permanent solution instead of continued delays. Doctors deserve fair reimbursement for caring for our seniors, and our seniors deserve to know that their doctor is going to participate in Medicare.
Finally, the House took the rare and serious step this week of censuring one of its members for ethical misconduct. During my term, I have consistently supported aggressive efforts to investigate and punish representatives who abuse their office, including some of the most powerful members of my own party. Any violation of the public trust cannot be tolerated. Congressman Charles Rangel of New York has served his country admirably for many years in the Army and in the Congress, but his actions showed a pattern of carelessness and dishonesty. I had previously supported efforts for him to be removed from his powerful position as Chairman of the Ways and Means Committee. This week, following a lengthy investigation by a bipartisan ethics panel, I voted for an official censure of Rep. Rangel. One of the most solemn duties of Congress is to defend the integrity of the body against transgressions by its members.
Tom Perriello represents the Fifth District in the United States House of Representatives.
Poll: Allen leads GOP Senate field, but trails Webb, Kaine in ’12 matchups
A new poll out today has former governor and U.S. senator George Allen well out in front of a potential 2012 Republican Senate nomination field, but also trailing in hypothetical matchups with Democratic Sen. Jim Webb and another former governor, Tim Kaine.
Allen, who lost the seat that is up for re-election in 2012 to Webb in the 2006 elections, is at 46 percent support among Republicans in the poll done by Public Policy Polling of Virginia Republicans. Congressman Eric Cantor is at 18 percent, with Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli at 16 percent.
“Virginia Republicans clearly want George Allen as their nominee. With these kinds of numbers, if he gets into the race, he’s probably a field clearer,” said Dean Debnam, president of Public Policy Polling.
Both Webb and Kaine, though, would lead Allen in hypothetical 2012 Senate matchups. Webb leads Allen 49 percent-45 percent in their head-to-head, and Kaine, the current chairman of the Democratic National Committee, leads Allen 50 percent-44 percent.
PPP also tested one-term Democratic congressman Tom Perriello in a head-to-head with Allen. Allen leads that matchup 47 percent-42 percent.
One other poll tidbit: PPP has President Barack Obama leading all of the top potential Republican presidential nominees in Virginia in 2012, with the closest races being with former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney (48 percent-443 percent) and former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee (49 percent-44 percent).
“With Barack Obama looking good to start out the 2012 cycle in Virginia, and now Jim Webb and Tim Kaine joining him, the Republican victories in 2009 and 2010 could be more a blip than 2006 and 2008 were for Democrats,” Debnam said.
Story by Chris Graham. Chris can be reached at freepress2@ntelos.net.
The AFP on WREL: Nov. 5, 2010
AFP editor Chris Graham joins WREL’s “Online with Jim Bresnahan” for their weekly wrap on Virginia news.
The focus this week is on the midterm elections. The segment kicks off with a breakdown of the upset in the Fifth District, where Republican Robert Hurt knocked off Democratic incumbent Tom Perriello. Chris also analyzes the upset in the Ninth District, where long-time Democratic incumbent Rick Boucher was defeated by Republican Morgan Griffith.
A look ahead to Virginia politics in 2011 and 2012 wraps us up.
Down in defeat: Virginia Dems licking wounds after Election Day bloodletting
Tom Perriello was the underdog yet again, and yet again got caught up in a political wave. The only difference – this one forced him to swim against the current.
“I think what really torpedoed his chances here was the D next to his name,” said Isaac Wood, the House race editor at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, breaking down the Election Day loss of Perriello in the Fifth District.
The Fifth is a conservative district, “and 2010 has been a conservative year. It was pretty unlikely for a freshman Democrat to be able to overcome all of that, and across the country we really didn’t see hardly any examples of that occurring,” said Wood, who had along with other analysts foretold the Republican wave that led to the GOP takeover of the House of Representatives in the 2010 midterms.
Perriello had been on the other side of the wave phenomenon just two years ago in the course of posting his upset win over long-time Republican incumbent Virgil Goode. The Democrat rode strong majorities in Charlottesville-Albemarle and a better-than-expected showing in Southside to victory in ’08.
Perriello got his big majorities in Charlottesville-Albemarle again in 2010, racking up a 12,500-vote margin in the localities, but Republican Robert Hurt rolled up a 20,000-plus-vote margin outside of the Charlottesville region and won districtwide with just shy of 51 percent of the vote.
The Perriello loss wasn’t that much of a surprise. What was a huge surprise was what happened down in Southwest Virginia, where 28-year Democratic incumbent Rick Boucher went down to defeat to Republican Morgan Griffith. Boucher had led Griffith by a double-digit margin in polls as recently as early October before the race tightened in the final couple of weeks.
“Rick Boucher survived 1994 and that Republican wave. But this Republican wave was even higher than that of 1994, and it washed away Rick Boucher,” said Wood, pointing to Boucher’s vote in favor of controversial cap-and-trade legislation that many in Southwest Virginia felt was dangerous to the local largely coal-based economy.
A third Virginia Democratic incumbent, 11th District Congressman Gerry Connolly, has a narrow 900-vote lead in his race against Republican Keith Fimian in a race that will surely go to a recount before a winner will be formally declared.
Assuming Connolly’s lead holds up and he is declared the winner, Virginia’s Democratic delegation in the House will be halved in January from six to three with the defeats of Perriello, Boucher and Second District Democrat Glenn Nye.
As bleak as things look right now, though, don’t count Democrats out looking ahead to November 2012.
“If you look at the swing between 2008 and 2010, it should prove to be a cautionary tale about extrapolating too much looking ahead to 2012. If Republicans were able to come back to the large degree that they were able to in just two years, perhaps Democrats can do the same thing,” Wood said.
“Remember 1994, which was the previous high bar for Republican gains in the House. Bill Clinton’s first midterm was an ugly one, but he was re-elected in 1996. Perhaps the same thing will happen to Barack Obama, or perhaps he will turn out to be like Jimmy Carter,” Wood said.
Story by Chris Graham. Chris can be reached at freepress2@ntelos.net.
Movement toward Perriello in the Fifth?
A new SurveyUSA poll has Republican Robert Hurt ahead of Democrat Tom Perriello in the Fifth, but by a much smaller margin than previous SurveyUSA polling.
The latest SurveyUSA poll has Hurt at 51 percent and Perriello at 43 percent. A September SurveyUSA poll had Hurt ahead by a 61 percent-35 percent margin.
All other polling done in the race has had the margin consistently at two to six points.
Chris Graham: Misread on 2012?
Posted by afp on February 21, 2011 · Leave a Comment
“If Kaine is the candidate, he better have some god damn good consultants and ads, because he won’t have volunteers knocking on doors for him!”
That has been the sentiment on the forum attached to my weekend column. For perspective, it’s a small sample, so I don’t want to overgeneralize to the point of saying, Yeah, that says it right there, the netroots have spoken, there’s the end of Tim Kaine.
But we’re pretty much doing the same thing in our early analyses of the Republican Senate race. George Allen is the presumptive frontrunner there, Tea Party leader Jamie Radtke has the support of some conservative bloggers, and all hell is breaking loose, or so we’re all trying to say.
Filed under Blogs · Tagged with draft perriello, george allen, george allen senate, jamie radtke, tim kaine, tim kaine senate, tom perriello, tom perriello senate, virginia senate