Chris Saxman: Road to 270 Edition

Last week Cold Fusion headquarters was relocated to an undisclosed location in order to accelerate its plot to save the world from cultural annihilation brought to you by the people who just don’t have enough yet.

Part of that journey included, thankfully, the tried and true competency of Southwest Airlines. Under promise, over deliver and let the customers help – works. For some reason, when we “get” to check in online 24 hours early in order to be thrilled to stand only 37th in line to board and “get” two minuscule bags of peanuts we tend to forget about much of everything else about Southwest. They take care of that part – taking off and landing on time. They are also much nicer than the other airlines.

Reminder – Continental is still on the Cold Fusion No Fly List.

One of the stories that I like to tell about Southwest was a boarding experience in which, now this predates us getting all lined up in an orderly fashion, everyone crowded the gate trying to get the really cool seats. On a 737.

Recognizing that the cattle call had congested the entire plane, the stewardess grabs the microphone and says “Stop! You’re doing it wrong! You’re not picking out furniture. This is an 90 minute flight. Shut up and sit down!” Everyone laughed and did exactly as ordered.

With 73 Republicans actively or unconsciously running for POTUS, I would like to offer some reflections from the 2008 campaign that have been unearthed while reading a great book “Game Change” by John Heilemann and Mark Halperin. This book was recommended by our family’s resident political scholar, my mom, who recently graduated Magna Cum Laude in Political Science from Mary Baldwin College.

**Thanks for asking – YES! Mom and our oldest daughter did return from Paris and Florence safely. Highlight for mom – watching her granddaughter soak in the art, shopping and culture of the aforementioned. Highlight for Mary Kathryn – shopping.

First, and I mean this with no malice, the following is a list of people who will not be elected POTUS in 2012 and probably any other subsequent election. Not because he or she is a bad person or cannot win the nomination, they just won’t beat President Obama in 2012. Just won’t. Envision hitting a 95mph two seam fastball. You think you can, but you won’t. Ever.

Here we go.

Gary Johnson. Michele Bachmann. Rick Santorum. Newt Gingrich. Ron Paul. Sarah Palin. Tim Pawlenty. You will never be president.

They should all call their consultants in and put them on a lie detector test and ask one question “Will I ever be elected President?” If the buzzer sounds that a lie has taken place, they should thank them for their loyalty and plan an exit strategy that will financially benefit both. If the buzzer does not sound, the person is a psychopath and needs serious help.

That leaves us with – in no particular order – Gov. Rick Perry of Texas, Gov/Ambassador for Obama Jon Huntsman of Utah and China, Gov. Mitt Romney of Utah/Michigan and Massachusetts and Herman Cain of Coca Cola/Burger King/Godfather’s Pizza and the Kansas City Federal Reserve.

Now, since Mr. Cain is enjoying the previously predicted (yes, I called it) bounce and since he was educated in computer science and mathematics, let’s start with basic math.

In order for the GOP to win in 2012, they have to win Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Indiana and Colorado. That gets them over the 270 electoral vote total. Mind you only three incumbents have failed to get re-elected in the last 80 years – Carter, Bush I and Hoover. All three had declared opposition from within their own ranks. Every other incumbent who chose to run, won. LBJ chose not to run in 1968.

Okay. So, it’s VERY uphill to start and once the field of internal opposition is waited out by Obama – thinking Labor Day – he can start to move to the middle and start cutting deals with the GOP a la Clinton in 1996 on welfare.

Still here? This is not rocket science. Political science is math – which would explain my grade my freshman year in poli sci. Beer won in a landslide. Pizza a close second.

The GOP narrative of picking the middle aged, but competent, white guy is over. Can’t get to 270 from there. There is not likely to be a fervent policy discussion in the GOP primaries that doesn’t focus on Romney’s previous positions. They will.

The fact of the matter is that the black and hispanic turnout is HUGE in Florida (16% African American and 18% Hispanic), North Carolina (22% AA), Virginia (19.5% AA and 7% Hispanic), Ohio (12% AA), Colorado (18% Hispanic) not to mention New Mexico which is 46% Hispanic. The fact of this fact that matters is that people vote for people with whom they easily relate. Arizona and Georgia could also be expensive battlegrounds.

So, with the remaining four GOP candidates – win all of those states against Barack Obama and his allies in the press. Say what you will about his abysmal performance as President, the guy is ridiculously likable and if you haven’t heard by now can give a pretty good speech. Even if the economy is sputtering along in 2012, he will be hard to dethrone.

**For the record, after he won in 2008 I publicly wished for and privately prayed that he would succeed as POTUS. I never want a US president to do anything but succeed. For our country’s sake, I hope he will cut his base loose sooner rather than later.

That all being said here’s what Game Change has reminded me and I offer it to the remaining candidates for President – including President Obama since he seemed to have left back in the future.

Empathy – you need to know instinctively what Americans FEEL.

This was the real genius of Reagan and Clinton.

Experience – yes, it does matter. As Joe Biden warned (yes, still VPOTUS), the Oval Office is no place to learn on the job.

Deliver – it’s best to under promise but that’s not easy to when you are running to the be leader of the Free World.

Educate – yourself on how great Americans are. Oh and the issues. Nothing is more unnerving than when a candidate for the presidency thinks the country has 57 states or that Lexington and Concord was in New Hampshire. Or when you rely on a teleprompter all the time.

Listen. Please do us all a favor and resist the urge to tell us what you think. We need to get it done. So unless you are describing how you plan on cutting the deal in the end, we pretty much know what you think about the issues. Shut your pie hole and listen. You might just learn something about us.

Present a detailed list of things that the federal government can turnover to the states. They are better at governing than DC and that is because they have to balance their budgets. DC can’t even pass a budget! Think outside the box here.

Figure out a real plan that can pass to reform ALL of the following – Medicaid. Medicare. Social Security. Education. Wall Street. The NFL Lock Out. American Idol Text Voting and Continental Airlines.

Prepare for the Long Hot Summer of 2011 – Hurricanes, Tornadoes, and the Muslim Brotherhood winning over the Egyptian Parliament. OOPS.

Sell t-shirts and bumperstickers with your name and likeness. If they don’t sell, you won’t win.

Prepare for the onslaught of media attention, a schedule that is going to crush you physically, emotionally and mentally, and most of all the chance to lead us out of the mess that is largely impacts those who had no say in the matter. US.

And lastly. Make one pledge. Pledge to make it a federal felony to screw up the economy. Lower regulations where necessary but increase the penalties. Blow up the markets? You don’t pay a fine – you go to jail and not the nice places.

And make that pledge at the next fundraiser on Wall Street.

We’re not picking out furniture and this is no 90 minute airline flight on a Shamu painted 737. Buckle up. The afternoon thermals are approaching – it’s going to be bumpy.

Column by Chris Saxman