Poll: Kaine early choice of Dems in 2012 Senate race

Tim Kaine has the solid support of Democratic primary voters in the early, early runup to the 2012 U.S. Senate race.

The former governor and current chairman of the Democratic National Committee was the choice of 53 percent of those polled by Public Policy Polling late last month. Congressman Bobby Scott and former congressmen Tom Perriello and Rick Boucher were in a tie for second in the polling at 9 percent each.

“Tim Kaine is the heavy-hitter who would be the strongest candidate against George Allen or any of the other Republicans,” said Dean Debnam, president of Public Policy Polling. “We’re showing Kaine and Allen neck-and-neck, but right now, Allen has healthy leads over the other two little-known Democrats, Boucher and Perriello.”

Kaine’s support is broad-based – 56 percent of moderate voters, 56 percent of “somewhat liberal” voters and 50 percent each of “very liberal” and “somewhat conservative” voters sided with Kaine in the poll.

Kaine has not announced his intentions for the Democratic Party nomination. Incumbent Sen. Jim Webb, a Democrat, said last month that he will not seek a second term in next year’s elections.

Story by Chris Graham. Chris can be reached at freepress2@ntelos.net.

The AFP on WREL: Nov. 5, 2010

AFP editor Chris Graham joins WREL’s “Online with Jim Bresnahan” for their weekly wrap on Virginia news.

The focus this week is on the midterm elections. The segment kicks off with a breakdown of the upset in the Fifth District, where Republican Robert Hurt knocked off Democratic incumbent Tom Perriello. Chris also analyzes the upset in the Ninth District, where long-time Democratic incumbent Rick Boucher was defeated by Republican Morgan Griffith.

A look ahead to Virginia politics in 2011 and 2012 wraps us up.

Down in defeat: Virginia Dems licking wounds after Election Day bloodletting

Tom Perriello was the underdog yet again, and yet again got caught up in a political wave. The only difference – this one forced him to swim against the current.

“I think what really torpedoed his chances here was the D next to his name,” said Isaac Wood, the House race editor at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, breaking down the Election Day loss of Perriello in the Fifth District.

The Fifth is a conservative district, “and 2010 has been a conservative year. It was pretty unlikely for a freshman Democrat to be able to overcome all of that, and across the country we really didn’t see hardly any examples of that occurring,” said Wood, who had along with other analysts foretold the Republican wave that led to the GOP takeover of the House of Representatives in the 2010 midterms.

Perriello had been on the other side of the wave phenomenon just two years ago in the course of posting his upset win over long-time Republican incumbent Virgil Goode. The Democrat rode strong majorities in Charlottesville-Albemarle and a better-than-expected showing in Southside to victory in ’08.

Perriello got his big majorities in Charlottesville-Albemarle again in 2010, racking up a 12,500-vote margin in the localities, but Republican Robert Hurt rolled up a 20,000-plus-vote margin outside of the Charlottesville region and won districtwide with just shy of 51 percent of the vote.

The Perriello loss wasn’t that much of a surprise. What was a huge surprise was what happened down in Southwest Virginia, where 28-year Democratic incumbent Rick Boucher went down to defeat to Republican Morgan Griffith. Boucher had led Griffith by a double-digit margin in polls as recently as early October before the race tightened in the final couple of weeks.

“Rick Boucher survived 1994 and that Republican wave. But this Republican wave was even higher than that of 1994, and it washed away Rick Boucher,” said Wood, pointing to Boucher’s vote in favor of controversial cap-and-trade legislation that many in Southwest Virginia felt was dangerous to the local largely coal-based economy.

A third Virginia Democratic incumbent, 11th District Congressman Gerry Connolly, has a narrow 900-vote lead in his race against Republican Keith Fimian in a race that will surely go to a recount before a winner will be formally declared.

Assuming Connolly’s lead holds up and he is declared the winner, Virginia’s Democratic delegation in the House will be halved in January from six to three with the defeats of Perriello, Boucher and Second District Democrat Glenn Nye.

As bleak as things look right now, though, don’t count Democrats out looking ahead to November 2012.

“If you look at the swing between 2008 and 2010, it should prove to be a cautionary tale about extrapolating too much looking ahead to 2012. If Republicans were able to come back to the large degree that they were able to in just two years, perhaps Democrats can do the same thing,” Wood said.

“Remember 1994, which was the previous high bar for Republican gains in the House. Bill Clinton’s first midterm was an ugly one, but he was re-elected in 1996. Perhaps the same thing will happen to Barack Obama, or perhaps he will turn out to be like Jimmy Carter,” Wood said.

Story by Chris Graham. Chris can be reached at freepress2@ntelos.net.

The AFP on WREL: Oct. 22, 2010

AFP editor Chris Graham joins WREL’s “Online with Jim Bresnahan” to talk Virginia news and politics.

The segment begins with Chris providing an update on the latest news in congressional races in the Fifth, Sixth and Ninth. Republicans appear poised to hold onto the Sixth District seat and take back the seat in the Fifth from Democrat Tom Perriello. The Ninth District race is interesting with Democratic incumbent Rick Boucher and Republican challenger Morgan Griffith dueling to the wire.

The segment wraps with a discussion of the new 70-mph speed limits on many Virginia interstate highways announced this week by Gov. Bob McDonnell.
 
 

Boucher holds steady lead over Griffith in Ninth

Democratic incumbent Rick Boucher has a double-digit lead over Republican Morgan Griffith in their race for the Ninth District seat, according to two recent polls.

A SurveyUSA poll released on Friday has Boucher with a 50 percent-40 percent lead over Griffith, the majority leader in the Virginia House of Delegates.

internal polling conducted for Boucher by Benenson Strategy Group has Boucher ahead of Griffith by a more substantial 55 percent-32 percent margin.

Link to news brief on WhenVirginiaWasBlue.com.

WhenVirginiaWasBlue.com: Virginia Dems mum on NYC mosque

Democrats are falling over themselves to comment on the proposed Muslim community center in New York City two blocks from the former World Trade Center. Just not, to their credit, Virginia Democrats.

Chris Graham reports on the WhenVirginiaWasBlue.com blog.

What Virginia’s delegation had to say on health-care vote

The House of Representatives voted 220-215 late Saturday night to approve legislation that includes mandates to insurance providers and consumers and creates a public option for the provision of insurance coverage.

One Republican, Joseph Cao of Louisiana, joined 219 Democrats in voting for the bill; 176 Republicans and 39 Democrats voted against the legislation, which next goes to the Senate. It can be expected that whatever health-care bill makes it to the Senate floor will have some differences in language with the House version, so if and when the Senate were to pass similar legislation, it would be up to a House-Senate conference committee to work out differences and present a compromise bill for additional consideration by the two legislative chambers.

Which is to say, it’s not over yet, not by a long shot.

But the Saturday vote was historic nonetheless, and no matter as to what side of the political or ideological aisle you happen to be on.

We collected on-the-record comments from Virginia’s congressional delegation on the legislation from yesterday and late last night. Here’s what your congressional delegation had to say. Continue reading “What Virginia’s delegation had to say on health-care vote” »

Rita Sutherland | Putting local radio back on the congressional radar

Nine years ago, when my family lost our radio business, our community lost the voice it had known for 46 years.

On May 15, 2000, WABN’s broadcast was silenced. When Congress and the Federal Communications Commission deregulated ownership of stations nationally and locally, Bristol Broadcasting Inc., a group that already owned 15 radio stations across Virginia, West Virginia, and Kentucky, stepped in and acquired WABN at less than half its appraised value. Continue reading “Rita Sutherland | Putting local radio back on the congressional radar” »

A clear direction on energy

We may not yet have a firm grasp on exactly what we need to do to merge the words clean and energy in perfect harmony, even with the 219-212 vote of the House of Representatives on cap-and-trade legislation last week. But we do at least have direction, and considering how much muck was thrown into the works in the environmental arena in the Bush years, movement in the direction of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions has to be considered progress. Continue reading “A clear direction on energy” »

Bowerbank gets more nods

Ninth District Congressman Rick Boucher and a group of local Democratic committee chairs have jumped on board the Jon Bowerbank for lieutenant governor bandwagon.
“Jon Bowerbank is a long-time friend of mine, and I am pleased to endorse his candidacy for lieutenant governor of Virginia,” said Boucher, a Democrat. “As an entrepreneur in Russell County, Jon has demonstrated his ability to create high paying jobs. He has two decades of experience meeting the challenges of the energy sector. Jon’s commitment to economic development, finding energy solutions, and investing in our infrastructure will be an asset to Virginia when he is elected Lieutenant Governor,” Boucher said. Continue reading “Bowerbank gets more nods” »

White House ’08: Obama makes case in Roanoke

The Top Story by Chris Graham
freepress2@ntelos.net

Barack Obama had two words Friday for supporters who want to think that he has the ’08 presidential election sewn up. “New Hampshire.”

“We were up 10 in the polls the day before the election, and we ended up losing. We were up in Texas and Ohio, we ended up losing. So you can’t pay attention to the polls,” Obama told a raucous crowd of 10,000 Virginia Democrats at the Roanoke Civic Center whose hard work has made it possible for the Democratic Party presidential nominee to be a cautious frontrunner heading into the final two weeks of the campaign season.

“With your hard work, with your passion, with your determination, with your commitment, two weeks from Tuesday, something is going to happen in Virginia that has not happened since 1964,” Ninth District Democratic Congressman Rick Boucher had said earlier, referencing how long it has been since Virginia last cast its Electoral College lot with a Democratic presidential candidate, for Lyndon Johnson in landslide win in ’64 over Republican Barry Goldwater. Recent polling has Obama ahead of GOP nominee John McCain by as much as 12 points in the Old Dominion, and doing surprisingly well in Western Virginia. A Survey USA poll released last week had Obama and McCain in a virtual dead heat in Western Virginia a month after McCain had enjoyed a healthy 24-point lead in the mountains. If that trend continues, Virginia Tech political-science professor Bob Denton feels that the talk that Virginia will go blue on Election Day will be right on.

“The Obama campaign is targeting 45 percent here in Southside and Southwest Virginia. They feel that if they can get 45 percent of the vote here, and then get 60 percent of the vote in Northern Virginia and 55 percent in the Hampton Roads, that’s their key to victory. That was the victory for Kaine, that was the victory for Webb. And they’re trying to use that as their same target,” said Denton, who also pointed to projections of increased voter turnout among African-Americans in Virginia as another positive sign for Obama and Democrats heading into the campaign’s final days.

And that’s why Obama was back in Virginia on Friday trying to solidify his standing in a state whose shift in political allegiances could spell doom for Republicans on Nov. 4. “Without question, Barack Obama can lose Virginia and still become president. It’s hard to see how McCain, if he loses Virginia, it’s almost done for him,” Denton said.

Obama addressed the Civic Center rally for 40 minutes on issues ranging from health care to Iraq to the economic foundation of American society. “For households across the country, it’s getting harder to get loans for that new car or that startup business or that college education that you need. Wages are lower than they’ve been in a decade. You’re paying more for everything from gas to groceries while your paychecks have flatlined. So, Roanoke, I know these are difficult times. I know folks are worried. But I am convinced that we can steer ourselves out of this crisis,” said Obama, drawing a sharp contrast between his bottom-up approach and the top-down approach advocated by McCain, who is pushing for the extension of tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations that were championed by President Bush early in his first term in office.

“At the debate this week, Sen. McCain felt the need to inform me that he’s not President Bush. Now, in fairness, Sen. McCain doesn’t look like President Bush. He doesn’t have a Texas accent like President Bush. And I don’t blame Sen. McCain for all of President Bush’s mistakes. After all, he’s only voted with George Bush 90 percent of the time,” Obama said. “It is fair to say that over the course of three debates and 20 months and over the last eight years, Sen. McCain still has not offered a single thing that he would do differently from George W. Bush when it comes to the most important economic issues that we face today. Not one,” Obama said.

Obama talked up his proposed tax credits for new jobs created in the United States in the next two years and his idea for eliminating capital-gains taxes on investments in small businesses and startup companies that he said would push small-business development. “John McCain wants to keep the tax cuts for corporations that want to ship your jobs overseas, just like George Bush. I want to give tax breaks to companies that create jobs right here in America. John McCain wants to give tax cuts to Exxon-Mobil and other big corporations and their CEOs that we just can’t afford, just like George Bush. I want to give a break to 95 percent of middle-class America. I want to give tax breaks to small businesses that create more than two-thirds of our jobs. That’s how we’ll strengthen our economy. That’s how we’ll grow our economy again, from the bottom up,” Obama said.

“Bottom-up growth depends on a tax code that doesn’t just work for those folks at the top. You’ve heard a lot about taxes in this campaign, but here’s the truth. My opponent and I are both offering tax cuts. The difference is he wants to double down on the Bush tax policy by giving $200 billion in tax cuts to the biggest corporations in America, giving the average Fortune 500 CEO a $700,000 tax cut, but he gives nothing at all to over 100 million Americans. I’ve got a different set of priorities. I give middle-class Americans a tax cut – 95 percent of all workers. And if you make less than $250,000 a year – how many of you make less than $250,000 a year? If you make less than $250,000 a year, a quarter-million dollars a year, which includes 98 percent of small-business owners, you won’t see your taxes increase one single dime, not your payroll tax, not your income tax, not your gas tax, no tax. Because in an economy like this, the last thing we should do is raise taxes on the middle class,” Obama said.

U.S. Sen. Jim Webb, D-Va., served up the red meat for the partisan gathering, questioning whether McCain, a friend for 30 years, is “the right person to lead this country” based on his economic and foreign-policy positions and his selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin to serve as his running mate. “Do you really think that Sarah Palin is the most qualified person in the Republican Party? I don’t know how many people here like country music. I like country music. There was a song about two years ago, ‘I Know What I Was Feeling, But What Was I Thinking?’ Think John McCain is probably singing that song right now?” Webb said.

“I know what it’s like to be involved in a Karl Rove campaign, and it’s not fun, folks,” said Webb, referring to his own contentious run for the Senate in ’06 against conservative Republican George Allen. “The last several months, we have seen that same kind of campaign conducted against Barack Obama. What they do is they say, That person is not like you, that person doesn’t understand you, you can’t trust them,” said Webb, who told those in attendance that Obama “is like you. He knows what it’s like to struggle,” in a nod to Obama’s humble background, with a father from Kenya and a mother from Kansas who raised him as a single mother. And, Webb said, Obama knows Southwest Virginia well, too, having made his first appearance after securing the Democratic nomination in June in Western Virginia, with Friday’s visit marking his seventh to the region in the general-election campaign.

“And you can trust him,” said Webb, “and I’m a fairly skeptical person, and when I can say I trust somebody, I mean it, and I trust Barack Obama, and you should trust Barack Obama.”

And if you’re trusting Obama, you’re right there with him that it’s not over ’til it’s over, no matter what the polls say. “We’ve got to keep making our case for change. We’ve got to keep fighting for every vote. We’ve got to keep running to the finish. This election is too important. We can’t take anything for granted,” Obama said. History will judge how America responds to its current challenges, Obama said. “Will they say this is the time when America lost its nerve, lost its way, lost its purpose? Will we allow our own petty differences, our broken politics, to run this country into a deeper recession? Or will they that this was another one of those moments when America overcame, when we saw our common purpose, when we recognized the common stake that we have in each other? This is one of those moments,” Obama said.