Chris Saxman: Cold Fusion-Super Bowl Ads Edition
I had only three reasons to watch the Super Bowl this year.
1. It was the last football game until college spring games in April
2. Whether or not the score was going to be close to my prediction of 20-17 and well under the Over/Under Las Vegas put on the game of 54.5 points. I had NO idea or concern as to whether or not the Giants beat the Patriots or vice versa. In another battle of New York versus Boston, I choose C) None of the above.
3. The ads
Offering a Cold Fusion look at the ads, I will attempt to convey how I look at Super Bowl ads and frankly, advertising in general. Continue reading “Chris Saxman: Cold Fusion-Super Bowl Ads Edition” »
Chris Saxman: Cold Fusion-Dude? Was That You? Edition
On a crowded elevator turn to the friend next to you and say “Dude! Really? On an elevator? Ladies and gentlemen, I would like to apologize for my friend. I want to assure you that I will be having a man to man conversation about his behavior. Oh man, this is just awful! It’s not funny!”
Now, naturally at this point one’s friend is totally frozen and shocked at the false outrage OR he is convulsively laughing which doubles down on the situational humor. Continue reading “Chris Saxman: Cold Fusion-Dude? Was That You? Edition” »
Chris Saxman: Cold Fusion-State of the Union Edition
Wednesday afternoon I sat down in the recently renovated and undecorated customer lounge at Charlie Obaugh’s Buick/GMC dealership to read President Obama’s State of The Union address. This was necessitated by the fact that the twelve year blocked my attempt to do so on the way home from a basketball game the night previous.
Rather than punctuate a channel change maneuver with a Like I’m Not Even Kidding, she jumped right to the Triple Dog Dare and simply turned off the radio with a very stern “NO. I am NOT listening to this”. I was unwilling to draw back a bloody stump of an arm by turning MY radio back on, so I instead opted to delve into Dervish Whirling’s head on just what she didn’t like about our president of these very United States. Continue reading “Chris Saxman: Cold Fusion-State of the Union Edition” »
Chris Saxman: Cold Fusion-Saint the Cowboy Edition
Dateline – All Saints Day 2000 Anno Domini.
A 5-year-old Catholic schoolboy walked on stage, like the rest of the entire school had to do, to announce which saint he had dressed up to be that day. See, this school reversed the Halloween thing and tried to celebrate saints instead of mass murderers, prostitutes, and other things that scare the used food out of kids.
Dressed in his cousin’s cowboys boots (that would not have fit him until middle school), red handkerchief, jeans and a cowboy hat, he was asked by the microphone wielding school head “Well, William…which saint are you today?”
William sheepishly, but audibly to the entire school auditorium, announced that he was…
“Saint the Cowboy.” Continue reading “Chris Saxman: Cold Fusion-Saint the Cowboy Edition” »
Chris Saxman: Cold Fusion-Like I’m Not Even Kidding Edition
Picking up one’s twelve-year-old daughter from school is like a box of chocolates – you never know what you’re going to get. h/t Forrest Gump.
And then she opens the door thus beginning the conversation -
“My coach hates me…”
“What’s for dinner?”
“I need some deodorant, I totally reek…”
Hi Sweetie. How was your day? Continue reading “Chris Saxman: Cold Fusion-Like I’m Not Even Kidding Edition” »
Chris Saxman: Cold Fusion – Jazz Edition
Heading down a quiet yet active street that passes aging, solidly built middle class homes, the youngest member of the clan, dressed in his football practice uniform, asked, “Dad, what’s jazz?”
He had seen the display on the XM Radio of a channel that had the word JAZZ on it and asked a simple question – “What’s that?”
Wishing I could hit the Google/Wikipedia button, I muttered something incoherent about musicians just playing together and creating music without a lot of structure. They just play their instruments. The kid’s nine, but I whiffed that answer big time.
I was relieved to see on the Wikipedia definition for Jazz that “Jazz can be difficult to define…” Sweet. Upon review, I got the first down – two weeks after the fact, but these days, I’ll take it. Big Time.
We have all been treated to a policy upchuck by the various candidates for president of these here United States on how to fix our economy. There is a lot of well thought out positions by just about all of the wannabes and even Obama. Since there is an equal amount of bovine based fertilizer as well, one cannot help but conclude that everyone is rowing, just not together or in the same direction. We are spinning in circles.
Improvisational jazz comes together when the musicians get each other in the music. It just happens or it doesn’t. The music works and is beautiful or they quickly move on to another shot at a polyrhythmic, syncopated journey into the soul.
What the candidates and Obama are missing is the beautiful narrative of America. America has long transcended all other nations due to its creation from nothing but a dream of freedom and opportunity.
Recall the greatest accomplishments of our nation and you can distill them all down to one or two simple words. The one that will always be used by even the most objective observer is freedom. From the landings at Cape Henry and Plymouth, to our Revolution/Articles of Confederation/Constitution to the Louisiana Purchase to the War of Union Aggression (a.k.a the Most Recent Unpleasantness a.k.a the Civil War) to the World Wars of the 20th Century to Women’s Suffrage to the Civil Rights Era and the Cold War, America is about one thing and one thing alone – freedom.
Or as Austin Powers would say “Freedom baby, yeah!”
And not just in the areas of political and military moments in history but also jazz and baseball and American football and Hollywood. The massive migrations of our people and boom rushes centered on jobs and economic prosperity and all were driven by an internal undefinable (maybe) human desire to lead lives according to our own dreams of a life to be lived well.
One would have thought that former history professor and former Speaker of the House, Newt Gingrich would have defaulted to this reality. For now, he seems content on rallying the troops and using the media as Quixotic windmill. He will not be the next president, but he above the others can focus Americans on America.
The candidates will offer positions and platitudinal speeches until financial attrition gives us the Republican version of the Final Four and we will be, finally, left with a choice of Obama or Not Obama.
Having recently dropped off our oldest for her freshman year at college a long 18 days ago, we understand full well the emotional and psychological angst of letting her go and watching her do it mostly on her own. How liberating and equally petrifying the last three weeks have been. The sniffles have long since dried up and the reports home are very encouraging.
Our American political class is like a helicoptering parent that simply cannot let go of the Americans they represent. Both parties honestly believe that their ideas, solutions and slogans are the correct path forward, but they continue to row without rhythm and syncopation. The resulting dead spin is a recession,not just in our economy, but deep within our soul. The Soul of America, freedom, is lost at sea.
Any search and rescue effort will take a very long time but it must begin with both parties unburdening the American people. They have to let go. We’ll be just fine and our economy will recover due to the collective desire of Americans seeking freedom, not the desire of the political class to control the outcome.
Like jazz, America and Americans are best when left alone to explore, create and produce according to our will. That cannot ever be managed or calculated or even given, it simply is.
Our governments, bless their hearts, did not create jazz or baseball or football or the movies or Google or Apple or the automobile or the airplane. We did.
When candidates speak they should do so with inspiration, aspiration and perspiration. Passion for freedom should replace extensive policy pronouncements. Speak to our soul. Loose it on the world again.
Create an agenda based solely on the freedom that burns deep within the human soul that was set free by our founders. Founders who rightly controlled the one impediment to our freedom – themselves.
Limited, separated and divided government works because it allows freedom, and by extension our economy, to expand. Not the other way around.
Like jazz.
A lot like jazz.
Column by Chris Saxman
Chris Saxman: Cold Fusion-London Calling Edition Aug. 18
Caller on line two. Go ahead John from Churchville.
John : Where are you on the issues?
Well, John. We all have them. So, ask away but be please be specific. That goes for anyone else out there in Cold Fusion Country. Ask away…
Now back to our program.
1979 saw the release of London Calling by The Clash, one of the most important albums in the rock era. Rock and roll…ah, those were the days. Lyrics, music, angst, love, poetry and the occasional bad, but encoded word.
This was not the Dawning of the Age of Aquarius. No, this was the beginning of the cultural reaction to it. History notes that 1968 was the Summer of Love and Woodstock and that fun little party the Democrats (Democratics) had in Chicago. Cold Fusion HQ was then a play pen – irony noted.
During the 1960s, the Beatles ruled the cultural transformation in popular music with great album after great album. Rolling Stone lists Sgt Peppers Lonely Hearts Club Band as the most important ever. My uncle gave me the White Album instead, in a not so concealed effort to radicalize me. Blessedly he failed to accessorize that Christmas gift with herbal supplements. I’m almost positive that Christmas fell in 1978.
The plot thickens.
As the generation that watched on black and white televisions the landing on the moon, Vietnam, Watergate, Three Mile Island and the Woodstock Decade Long Weekend, we hit a wall with the rest of the nation with the Iran hostages, an economy on the brink and general Chaos.
Sitting in our basements we listened to the Stones, the Who, Lynyrd Skynyrd and occasionally, at school dances, disco. Let it go.
Then in the backdrop of the Pirates come from behind World Series win and accompanying “We Are Family” diddy by Sister Sledge, we witnessed the Miracle on Ice – tape delayed – and then the run up to the historic election of 1980 ending the Carter Malaise. Eventually.
It was a cultural change in America but most of us couldn’t vote. We watched and listened coming of age during a time of American renewal. Some friends went Left and some went Right but remained friends against, but with the times. The times were improving and they were “a changin”.
With the The Clash methodically pounding in our heads
London calling to the faraway towns
Now that war is declared and battle come down
London calling to the underworld
Come out of the cupboard, all you boys and girls
London calling, now don’t look at us
All that phoney Beatlemania has bitten the dust
London calling, see we ain’t got no swing
‘Cept for the ring of that truncheon thing
The Clash. London Calling. Written during a time of great world confusion called out the previous, in their case own, generation.
Fast forward to 2011 with the increasing comparisons to the Carter Administration. With truncheon flying in London, Athenian and Arabian streets, history seems to be repeating itself. Or in Yogi Berraese “It’s deja vu all over again.”
The world is at a critical tipping point. Will it reverse course and begin to undo the entitlement mentality that has a near death grip lock on the youth of the Developed Countries or will it embrace what actually worked to pull us out of the Malaise – namely freedom and liberty? Will the governing class, representative of the idealist generation that grew out of world war and a century of incalculable dehumanization, double down and stay the course or will it realize the truths of simple mathematics and economics?
The most educated and yet most politically and culturally halved generation in American history is at the decision point.
While hope springs eternal, reality is a B*tch.
America’s greatest triumphs have been a direct result of clarity of purpose with eyes set on her horizon. Unleash the American greatness and you unleash the best of humanity. Get out of the way. We can fix what we know to be broken.
We can once again propel a long dormant pioneering and frontier spirit that is at the core of our national DNA. We must delineate between Power and Strength. Power comes from within and within our great Nation lies a power that was given to us by our Creator, not from our neighbor, boss or elected representative.
The strength of the force against is no match for the Power of Our Within.
That appears to be the clash that is calling, but as we schedule to gather this Thanksgiving, may this Nation, table by table, return to its DNA and loudly sing “We Are Family”. Right, Left, Green, Turquoise, Plaid – whatever your stripe – we are all in this together. We all got in it together and we will prevail together.
Maybe.
Come out of the cupboards all you boys and girls. All that phoney Beatlemania has bitten the dust.
John Lennon said he would have voted for Ronald Reagan and started down the path of evangelical Christianity only to be gunned down by Mark David Chapman. The year? 1980.
Maybe Lennon discovered the clash before The Clash did.
Imagine.
Chris Saxman: Cold Fusion-Eminem Edition
So the big debtbacle is finally over.
You wish. This is just the start. This is the new normal. Everything from here on out will be negotiated until the final hours. That is until we set the debt and fiscal trajectory on a better path and for a period of time up to the final passage of the Balanced Budget Amendment. Then the negotiations will spill over the deadlines and the new outrage will not be whether or not there is a surplus but how large is it.
A generation from now.
It will take a generation of time to change to new normal. This is not quite the “fundamental transformation” the president had predicted. But it is coming.
Greater restraint on government power is coming. It’s long overdue and it will take time so that the societal transition is not nearly as disruptive as it could be. A dramatic transition out of massive entitlements will not happen. Think of a long glide path – like a plane landing after flying at 38,000 feet. It. Takes. Time.
But…but….
Look. There is no more money. The bill is due. The party is over and the hangover is upon us. From here on out the path to recovery and renewal is reform.
If you think for a second that the next generation of political leaders is not willing to make the hard and sometime dangerous decisions that were nearly made this week, then I dare say you should look to retire to Costa Rica.
Washington DC has been changed, but not by the president who ran a brilliant and inspiring campaign in 2008. No, it was changed by the winners of the election 2010.
The health care legislative battle was won by Obama in Old Washington, the debt ceiling battle was won by those who had nothing to lose – in New Washington. Out manned in a political structure 2 to 1, the minority won. Big. Big Big.
The narrative will try to be turned on them as to how irresponsible they were and how they should not play chicken with the economy, the full faith and credit of the United States and their political careers. Maybe it will stick…probably not.
They got sick and tired of being sick and tired and said “not to my kids and grandkids you don’t.”
The songs of the 60s and 70s were reflective of the realities of the youths who wrote them.
Fast forward to today’s music. Much of it is useless noise but some artists capture the times. Few do it as well as Eminem.
Eminem (a.k.a Marshall Mathers) asks during the introduction of his hit “Lose Yourself”
Look, if you had one shot, or one opportunity
To Seize Everything you ever wanted, in one moment
Would you capture it, or just let it slip
Raw and powerful lyrics from a new generation. Not the stuff of 1968 to be sure.
The uninformed will say “Yeah, but Eminem is just a kid from Detroit.”
That kid turns 40 in October. Like too much of his generation, Mathers learned life the hard way with a father gone before he was two and his beloved uncle committing suicide via a shotgun to the head before Eminem was 20.
The children of Vietnam and Watergate are going to have their turn at the plate and they don’t plan on drawing a walk or bunting to get on base, they are going to swing for the fences or die trying.
Yeah, but home runs are so hard to hit….yes, a 95 mph four seam rising fastball is impossible to hit 400 feet.
Taking a political piece of maple to the federal budget for the sake of their children’s future is like hitting watermelon off of a tee.
Those recently awakened to the cold reality of the kids who grew up watching Dirty Harry say “Go Ahead, Make My Day”, are going to be astonished at the clarity and purpose of the next generation.
They really don’t care – about themselves. They care deeply about their kids and they are going to make damn sure that they have a future in this world. Just watch when the issue of K-12 education spending comes up. If it comes down to the Pentagon or K-12 funding, bet on the schools – every time.
Very few rappers write lyrics worth a plug nickel. Eminem, however, does with stunning clarity and jarring anger. The now born again Christian is “down with the Bible” and writing songs with Old Testament verses. That would be the “eye for an eye” portion of the most popular book in human history.
The new normal is under way. Everything is on the table.
Reform of our governing policies will be the new grail. Every politician worth their salt will be looking at new and improved ways of delivering essential government services to those who truly need help.
This is not easy sledding by any stretch of the imagination but thankfully the states have been leading in this effort for decades. They’ve had to because they have had deadlines for balanced budgets. They have no escape hatches. They have to deal with the cold, hard reality of the battle between revenues and costs.
The next generation knows all too well cold and hard realities. Making those decisions will not take very long for them. It won’t require polling or focus groups.
They are fine with the idea to “Lose Yourself.”
How serious were the winners of the Great Compromise of the Summer 2011?
Many of them didn’t even vote for it!
The next battle is over the federal budget that is due to be passed by the beginning of the fiscal year – October 1st. Buckle up and start the office pools again.
Did I mention that Eminem is a Born Again Christian?
“For The Times They Are A Changin….”
Irony noted.
Column by Chris Saxman
Chris Saxman: The Holy Grail/Gang of Six Edition
The oldest child is set to leave for college in 32 days – *sniff*
My academic recollection from the freshman fall of 1983 is the Monty Python classic movie “The Holy Grail”. Ah, memories. *sniff* One does not develop a working knowledge of such a piece of cinematic brilliance by watching it in a single sitting. Two dozen viewings should not be considered a waste of time as that film skewers most governing political systems and the dialogue must, must mind you, be submitted to memory.
If you have never seen “The Holy Grail”, go now. If you have, please enter the hard drive portion of your brain and ask yourself – just what is the Holy Grail of the United States federal government?
If you answered – money – you are warm. If you answered – spending money – you are getting warmer. If you answered – spending Other People’s Money – you hit that out of the ballpark!
OPM. Other People’s Money.
John’s going to Las Vegas. Before he leaves for the airport, John’s next door neighbor says “Man, I wish I was going to Vegas! You lucky duck! Here’s $250, please play roulette and put it all on red for me. Okay? John takes the money and says “Not a problem – good luck!” John arrives home and his neighbor runs out and asks, “Hey, did I win?” John says “Sorry buddy, you lost. But you had a great steak dinner!”
Oh the view one has of money that one has not earned.
Enter the Gang of Six – Senators Warner (Va), Durbin, Crapo, Chambliss, Coburn and the one I can never remember….Fonzarelli, I think. Anyway, these senators saw the train wreck coming and ordered in some pizza and beer and went to work.
Today the Grand Poobah of the Loyal Order of O.P.M, Barack Obama, blinked and said he supported the Gang of Six plan. This is not a cave, this is a blink. There’s a difference. Blinking means admitting that he had nothing to offer himself so he might as well start with this thing. Not bad since we are at 14 days and counting. Strong. Leader.
I read the executive summary of the GOS plan and I have to admit that I have about 23% understanding of it. It is a substantive policy submission; however, most of it is comprehensible by DC policy wonks and ONLY DC policy wonks.
But it’s a start. The negotiations have begun. The Senate must first actually write up a bill, have it scored by CBO, pass it and send it over to the House for probable, hopefully, amending. Then it goes back to the Senate for acceptance or rejection of the House amendments. A likely committee of conference is appointed and final negotiations occur.
In the mean time, the fundraising industry of DC will be in hyper drive. Every piece of the bill will be used by the affected entities to apocalyptically pronounce the end of the Earth’s rotation which will only be alleviated by a $50 donation which will also get you their latest policy report.
By August 2nd, several things will have occurred. The debt limit will be increased. Some taxes will be raised and some will be lowered. Crisis will be averted. Calmer heads will prevail.
But still.
This should never have gotten to the point at which we are actually thinking that the full faith and credit of America is suspect to the whims of the political machinations of those who seek to govern with the singular philosophy of “See, I Told You So.”
Many hysterical op-ed writers will get the vapors over how X or Y principle has been unalterably compromised. Nothing will be compromised away.
It will be negotiated.
Think about it. How many times to you go to buy something thinking “I am going to compromise to get what I want.”? You don’t. You think, rightfully, that you want to win the negotiations.
Winning, duh.
Who is going to win this show down? The side that first declares victory.
Republicans are still in the minority in DC. They are outnumbered 2 to 1 – President and Senate to House. Political Science is math. They have the advantage.
The GOP have taken this as far as they can. They should amend the bill or start their own that BEGINS the multi year path to balancing a budget that has not been passed in 812 days. If you really think the Democrats are going to cave but so much, you are smoking crack. They have the numbers.
Take what can. Declare victory. We have a lot of work to do in the future. Go Home. Win the Senate and the Presidency. If they want to play chicken with an economy that is creeping back into recession by even thinking about playing roulette with the full faith and credit of the United States, then they will forfeit any chance of future successes.
We didn’t get into this mess overnight and it won’t be solved in the next fortnight.
Let’s keep the momentum toward fiscal sanity going. Declare victory. Show the American people you can make progress. Repeat.
Right now, as in the Holy Grail, Camelot is a silly place.
It’s only a model.
Cold Fusion Holy Grail prediction – for the same reason that the NFL season will start soon – there is too much money and power for a deal NOT to be done. The difference with the NFL and DC? In the NFL, it’s either the owners or the players money. In DC? It’s OPM – so this thing will go down to the wire.
Set your office pools for a July 31st or August 1st for a budget deal to get done. NFL practices will have started several days before.
Other People’s Money.
Column by Chris Saxman
Chris Saxman: Cold Fusion-Bull Durham Edition
After sitting in the stands for a doubleheader between the Pirates and the Nationals, one becomes keenly aware that the only thing that works in DC is professional baseball.
Everything pretty much to the west of the functionally unimpressive Nationals stadium can be summed up by the scene in Bull Durham where veteran minor leaguer Crash Davis coaches his coach to scare the underperforming Durham Bulls.
The coach takes an arm full of bats and throws them into the shower/locker room and reels off this little gem to the scared young ballplayers.
“You guys. You lollygag the ball around the infield. You lollygag your way down to first. You lollygag in and out of the dugout. You know what that makes you? (quick snap turn to assistant coach Larry) Larry!”
Larry “Lollgaggers”
Coach (disgustedly) “Lollygaggers”
Baseball is a game in which the rules and the field are close to perfection. During a doubleheader, one is treated to many routine ground balls, fly outs and close to 600 pitches. After awhile one comes to the inescapable conclusion that the people who laid out the field, made up the rules, the equipment and the stadiums did so with the game in mind. The product. Over the decades and generations, fads and trends come and go but the game lives on because it is bigger than the players, owners or, yes, even the fans.
Granted someone has to play and watch the game and it has become a very large business, but baseball simply works. Just watch how close so many routine infield ground outs are. How close strikes and balls really are. How much a fastball moves.
So when steroids or a designated hitter or aluminum bats are inserted into the game, the game changes. Dramatically. Headquarters thinks that the designated hitter rule’s only true value to the game is its demonstration of its devaluing of the game. Translated – it shows that it is unnecessary and actually weakens the game. Think Roger Clemens and Nolan Ryan would throw that hard on the inside part of the plate if they had to stand in the batter’s box in the next inning? Ryan probably would – he was just that mean.
Your reality changes when you have to stand in the box and be two feet from where a 95 mph fastball is about to be thrown with tremendous precision.
So when a team plays with the “joy and verve” (Annie Savoy quote about the Durham Bulls) that the Pittsburgh Pirates have, the world is better. The Pirates have not had a winning season in 18 years. Yes, in a row. For me, that’s B.C. Before Children.
Now, everyone – and I mean EVERYONE – in baseball knows that in order to WIN in baseball you need two things. Just two. Say it with me….pitching and….right, defense.
Every playoff season, the television and radio audience is treated to the former players who call the games and say “you know, it’s going to come down to pitching and defense.” For some reason it’s never “defense and pitching”, they always say the word pitching first and then say defense. Pitching and defense. Pitching and defense. Peanut butter and jelly. Bacon and eggs. Speeding and ticket. Drunk and stupid. No secrets here.
Government and….3…2….1…..spending.
In August, the federal government will have $300 billion in bills it has said it would pay. The problem is revenue is only expected to be about $170 billion. Ooops.
Now, the people who spend their days actually trying to get elected to solve the nation’s problems and/or prevent them in the first place have not balanced a budget but 12 times since 1940. No one player or team is at fault here – which is the genius of that game.
The Senate has not passed a budget in over 800 days but apparently the guy who chairs the committee whose sole job is to pass a budget for the federal government to operate thinks, okay…okay, believes that the people in America who actually pay federal income taxes need to pay $2,000,000,000,000.00 more. Annually. We need to pay more every year according to the people who are afraid to pass a budget for the last two years.
Lollygaggers.
Let’s see, we are short $130,000,000,000.00 next month, right? Okay. So it’s decision time. The President said to those of us who already eat our peas that we need to “eat your peas.” We eat right, exercise, pay our taxes, employ people, drive not more than 10 miles over the posted limit and get tipsy when the Pirates, Steelers or Penguins win but in the comfort of our homes in which we are paying our mortgage.
Yes, we eat our peas. The problem for the Lollygaggers is that come August they have to decide between paying the mortgage and making the people who voted for them eat peas. Had we not gone so disastrously into debt to pay for government operations, we would not have to decide between paying the bank and funding basic operations.
A balanced budget requirement would solve this problem. Like pitching and defense in baseball, taking in more than you spend in government works.
But like Nuke Laloosh, the gifted rookie pitcher Crash Davis is training for the Show, the lollygaggers like striking out their opponents. Older, wiser Crash teaches him to pitch ground balls. Why? Strikeouts are fascist and ground outs? They’re more democratic.
The Pirates ERA has dropped considerably because their pitching coach is having them pitch to contact which creates more ground balls and fly outs. Now, they are winning.
Democracy, like baseball, is a beautiful organism when the basic rules are applied.
The problem in DC is that the basic rules are ignored, thrown out or amended into a state of complexity that demands stasis for mere survival. In baseball, it’s called lollygagging.
It’s time to get back to basics. Pitching and Defense. Spend less. Pay off debt. Diet and exercise. No more continuing resolutions. Pass a budget. Stop policing every corner of the world. Incentivize manufacturing. Wealth creation is good. Greed is bad. Greek yogurt good. Greek fiscal model bad.
He chose universal health care in a massive recession. They said “wrong choice”
They said “listen” and he said, “yeah, to me….eat your peas.”
And they said “Next”.
Larry?
Lollygagger.
Column by Chris Saxman
Chris Saxman: Bachmann Overdrive Edition
The political world has turned its attention to Congresswoman Michele Bachmann after her impressive Nashua debate performance and her announcement to run for President of the United States.
Cold Fusion HQ has gone on the record in stating that she will not win the presidency as it thinks it is just not going to happen. Disclosure – HQ has not endorsed or given money to any campaign.
Can she win the GOP nomination? Yes. She can.
Can she win the general election? Yes. She can.
Headquarters just simply thinks neither will happen.
Before Bachmann supporters get all jazzed up about HQ’s view on her candidacy, let’s try to look at this objectively.
Positives – Michele Bachmann is very intelligent as witnessed with her degree from William and Mary Law School. She is a prolific fundraiser, is a fighter and is solidly conservative. She is very telegenic and is getting much better in her media appearances. She brings a breath of fresh air energy that is in significant demand in the GOP nomination fight. Bachmann has also been elected three times to the US House after serving in the Minnesota Senate. While relatively inexperienced at the federal level, she has 70% name ID in Iowa at this point. Plus, her story of being a small business person and foster mother can build a compelling narrative.
Negatives – Congresswoman Bachmann finished 9 points behind GOP nominee John McCain in 2008 in her own district. In 2010, the Great Wave of the GOP, she barely cracked 50% in winning her re-election. This was the first time in her three runs for Congress in which she broke 50%. Those numbers are a problem and are important as the GOP considers who can win in 2012. She has a number of statements that will be difficult to explain away with multiple opponents and the press pointing them out on a regular and tiring basis. More than one source has told HQ about VERY high staff turnover in the DC office.
History – Incumbent presidents have only lost three times in the last 80 years. All three of them had primary challenges from within their own party. The GOP has a track record of selecting the candidate who finished second last time. It’s a subconscious conservative, traditional behavior. There were three legitimate claims on #2 in 2008 – Romney, Huckabee and Palin. Romney literally finished second but Huckabee kept running after Romney dropped out even though the race was settled. It’s an uphill climb for anyone who did not finish second.
Reagan and Thatcher comparisons.
Republicans are constantly looking for another Reagan or Thatcher, right?
Let’s go there.
Ronald Reagan was a successful two term governor of California and ran for the presidency three times. In 1976, he was the anti-establishment candidate who almost beat incumbent President Gerald Ford at the GOP convention. He then became nominee in 1980 and won the presidency. He built a national coalition that literally redrew the electoral map in the United States. It took time for that to happen.
Margaret Thatcher, interestingly like Bachmann, was/is a tax attorney. Thatcher was first elected to Parliament in 1959. She built her credentials among her peers in the Conservative Party becoming its elected leader in 1975. Four years later she was elected Prime Minister. It took time for that to happen.
Fast Forward to Iowa.
Bachmann will do very well in Iowa unless Texas Governor Rick Perry and former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin get in the race. If either or both get in, they will take social conservative votes away from Bachmann. You must finish in the top three in Iowa to have any momentum going into New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada and Florida. You need to have the money and substantive ground game in all of those states to have a chance of winning the nomination. That’s why the silver medalist does get the gold the next time around. It takes time for all of that to happen.
HOWEVER – Like the Bachman Turner Overdrive songs of the 1970s – “You Aint See Nothing Yet” and “Taking Care of Business” – Congresswoman Bachmann could do like Minneapolis based Mary Tyler Moore did and “Turn the World on With Her Smile”.
It’s just not likely to happen.
The narrative that will be needed to keep the media tuned in driving favorable free and earned media necessary to counter the pro-Obama media will require, as the book title “Game Change” suggests, something of a game change.
The GOP needs a game changing move and so will Obama. But the GOP is conservative by nature and will look for that in the VPOTUS selection. The game change the GOP has for now is that of the top three candidates in the Des Moines Register poll from last week one was female and one was minority.
That’s enough for the subconscious of most primary GOP voters for now. As other polls have suggested, the GOP voter is first and foremost looking for a winner. Finishing nine points behind McCain in your own district is not a good narrative maker in the primaries.
Bachmann’s best path to the presidency is a silver medal in 2012 primary states and then become the heir apparent in 2016. Worked for Reagan. And McCain. And Dole. And Bush I. And Nixon. And probably Romney.
Column by Chris Saxman
Chris Saxman: Cold Fusion-Super Bowl Controversies Edition
Posted by afp on February 11, 2012 · Leave a Comment
While 111.3 million people watched the actual game, 3 million more watched Madonna’s halftime show for a grand total of 114 plus or minus million people all tuned into the tube on Sunday night. Continue reading “Chris Saxman: Cold Fusion-Super Bowl Controversies Edition” »
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