Quinnipiac: Clinton leads Trump in Virginia by six

A new Quinnipiac University poll has Democrat Hillary Clinton up six points on Republican Donald Trump in Virginia.

The poll numbers come Thursday as part of Quinnipiac’s Swing State Poll. Clinton is also up on Trump in Colorado, 44 percent to 42 percent, with Trump leading in Georgia, 47 percent to 40 percent, and in Iowa, 44 percent to 37 percent.

“Iowa, Virginia and Colorado are a metaphor for what is happening in the presidential race,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

Libertarian Gary Johnson is polling 8 percent in Virginia, 9 percent in Georgia and 10 percent in Iowa and Colorado.

The numbers in the three true swing states – Georgia isn’t and never will be a swing state; not sure why that one was even polled in conjunction with this, to be honest – do reflect movement toward Trump.

Clinton was up eight points in the Augusta Quinnipiac polling, and up two in Iowa. The Democrat led in Virginia by 11 in August.

So you’re seeing movement toward Trump anywhere from five to nine points.

“When Quinnipiac University polled last in those states on August 17, Secretary Hillary Clinton was riding the post-convention wave that gave her double-digit leads in many polls,” Brown said. “Now, the race has tightened considerably nationally and that new reality is reflected by these numbers that show the two candidates much closer.

“Leads for Donald Trump in Georgia and Iowa and a virtual tie in Colorado plus a 6-point lead for Clinton in Virginia represent a major improvement overall for him in these states.”

Back to Virginia, women and non-white likely voters are the backbone of the Clinton lead. Clinton is ahead of Trump 50 percent to 36 percent among women, with men backing Trump 43 percent to 39 percent. Non-white voters prefer Clinton 70 percent to 15 percent, with white voters going to Trump 51 percent to 32 percent.

Clinton also benefits in Virginia from her more solid party base support. Democrats are for Clinton 90 percent to 2 percent for Trump, while Republicans are still just at 78 percent for Trump and 7 percent for Clinton.

Trump is doing much better among Republicans in the other states polled – at 84 percent in Colorado, 86 percent in Iowa and 90 percent in Georgia.

“Another key to how the race has changed is the measure of each candidates’ ability to keep their respective bases in line.  Throughout the campaign, Clinton has been able to get more Democrat support than Trump’s Republican support. That has now changed a bit and in Georgia and Iowa, Trump does better on that score.  Worth noting is that Trump has an edge among independent voters, often the key swing constituency, in all four of these states,” Brown said.

Definitely worth noting, that one: Trump has a 44 percent to 34 percent lead among independents in Virginia. Johnson gets 12 percent of the independent vote in Virginia.

More online: www.qu.edu/polling or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll.