I’ve been asked, since serving as moderator for a Sixth District Democratic Party primary debate in Staunton over the weekend, which way I’m leaning among the four candidates, if I’m leaning in any direction at all.
I can say that I’ve narrowed my personal choice from among the candidates – Sergio Coppolla, Jennifer Lewis, Charlotte Moore and Peter Volosin – to two.
I’m down to Lewis and Volosin, and here’s where I’m struggling.
Both are solid on the issues, say all the right things about healthcare, education, the environment, racial justice, women’s and LGBTQ equality, the economy.
Both have solid backgrounds, great track records.
As I shared in one email exchange with a friend who asked my thoughts on the race, what I need to see is evidence that a candidate can put together a campaign that can win in November.
Now, that is a tall order. There’s maybe a 0.1 percent chance that Republicans cough this one up enough to give a Democrat a chance to win in the Sixth, which is among the most GOP-safe congressional districts in the country.
It’s not a sin to run a losing Democratic race in the Sixth. You may have an easier time running a Freedom Caucus-loving neo-Nazi in San Francisco.
That said, what if Ben Cline has a macaca moment? Remember back in 2006, when George Allen was sailing toward a re-election to his Senate seat, had TV news crews following him around assuming he was going to be running for president in 2008, was riding a horse down the middle of the street in the Buena Vista Labor Day parade?
Then he flung a racial pejorative at a Democratic campaign operative filming an otherwise insignificant Allen event in some random corner of the state, and Jim Webb, who had been getting exactly no help from national Democrats, started on his way to an improbable win.
Two years later, across the Blue Ridge in the Fifth District, Tom Perriello trailed Virgil Goode by 29 points on Labor Day, and never led a single poll the entire cycle, except for the only one that mattered, on Election Night.
I want to back a candidate and a campaign that can win, basically, that can take advantage of a misstep, that can run the race all the way to the final minute of the final day, that is on a mission from God, to borrow from the Blues Brothers.
I wrote last week about how Bob Goodlatte, the last three times he faced a Democratic Party opponent, was able to raise just short of $2 million for his campaigns, as his opponents were able to bring in an average of $235,000 per cycle.
Cline, a Goodlatte protégé, has raised $269,000 so far this cycle, but I have no reason to believe that he won’t be able to get to $2 million easy by the fall.
Whoever emerges on the Democratic side can’t be expected to eclipse what we’ve seen recent D nominees have been able to do, but the nominee is going to need to at least approach those numbers.
Which is why I’m worried right now. Volosin has raised $61,449.46 for his campaign, according to the most recent report on file with the Federal Election Commission. Lewis has raised $30,574.86 so far.
It costs money to run a campaign. You need paid staff, and eventually you need ads – on TV, on the radio, on social media.
That’s another area of concern for me. Lewis has 1,349 followers on Facebook and 699 on Twitter; Volosin has 2,706 followers on Facebook and 691 on Twitter.
We’re going to need to see the social-media metrics jump up dramatically between now and Election Day. Yes, you can buy ads on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, but the more the campaign can generate in terms of organic reach, the better.
You’re not going to outspend a Republican in a Republican district, basically. This is a guerilla war, honestly, where you need to throw the rules of conventional politics out the door and try to reframe the fight on your terms.
Social media can level the playing field. Volunteers knocking on doors and working the phones can level the playing field. Media strategy, getting attention for free from local print, TV, radio, can level the playing field.
Who do I support going into the primary, was the question that prompted me to write this column. I need to figure out who can put together the kind of campaign that can give the Democratic side at least a puncher’s chance to win on Nov. 7.
I’m struggling to decide who that is, and waiting to be sold.
Column by Chris Graham
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