I can’t say that I’d recommend that any of them actually go forward with running on a repeal platform, but maybe they’ve backed themselves into that corner.

The problem from a policy perspective is that the earliest they could repeal anything would be 2013, assuming even then that Republicans have the votes to take majority control of both houses of Congress and then win back the White House.

And I’m not assuming that they win a majority in either house in 2010 or 2012. Or that Obama falls short in his re-election bid. I expect the congressional races to be tight this November, but the slimmer majority for Democrats in Congress will be more effective with the losses I expect to come that will eliminate most of the Blue Dogs from the party caucuses.

I then expect leaner but meaner Democratic majorities to be much more effective in 2011 and 2012, setting the stage for solid wins in November 2012 for Democrats.

Back to our hypothetical: By 2013, we’re three-plus years into the reform era. That seems too late to change course, at least to do so in any kind of responsible manner.

Running as health-care reform repealers is the easiest way for Republicans to figure out what happened way back when to the Whigs.

I posted the following on another local blog yesterday before the House votes. With it in mind, I wonder what your thoughts might generally be on any Republican efforts to run in 2010/2012 on an appeal-health-care platform and specifically whether our congressman would venture to do so.

“In our congressional district (VA 6) roughly 14.9 percent of the population under the age of 65 is uninsured. Which of you, standing up and using your real name, will tomorrow tell that portion of these 84,477 individuals (Source: American Community Survey 2008, US Bureau of the Census, September 2009) that receives health insurance as a result of this legislation that you want to take it away?

Do you think Congressman Goodlatte will be willing to do that?”

Notice how there was a big immigration rally in Washington this weekend?

Quentin knows what he’s talking about, one. As for the two, will it work – stay tuned. But I’d expect that we’d be on issue two or three or even four past health care by November.

I don’t have a crystal ball or claim to be any smarter at politics than the average bear, but I’ve always thought Democrats would have a better shot in November with health-care reform as an accomplishment rather than having a failed effort in their recent past a la 1994.

My best guess at this point is that Democrats lose 25-30 seats in the House and 5-7 seats in the Senate, maintaining slim majorities in both that are actually less ideologically diverse than the majorities in place right now, because the losses will kill off many of the Blue Dogs in both chambers.

If that scenario comes to pass, you may see Democrats have an easier go at getting legislation passed in 2011 and 2012 than they’ve had in 2009 and 2010.

Obviously Barack Obama comes out a winner. He has done something that Bill Clinton, Richard Nixon and two Roosevelts couldn’t do. That’s four pretty effective politicians there, and Obama outflanked them all at a time of heightened political parity, even for American politics.