Weather Blog: 20 to 30 inches or more of snow possible

afp on Fri, 5th Feb 2010 11:26 am 



RPV releases new web ad, “12 inches of Global Warming”

The Republican Party of Virginia released a new web ad yesterday, “12 inches of Global Warming.”

“Virginians all over the Commonwealth are bracing for yet another blast of winter weather, which will no doubt keep roads hazardous and schools closed for days. Forecasters from Bristol to Winchester are calling for more than a foot of snow,” said RPV Chairman Pat Mullins.

“With so many people stuck indoors around the heater, lots of folks will have the opportunity to watch the news. We thought that it might be a good time to remind them that Democrats Rick Boucher and Tom Perriello not only voted to make their heating bills far more expensive, but also to kill thousands of more jobs around the Commonwealth,” Mullins said.

Both Perriello and Boucher voted in favor of Nancy Pelosi’s “Cap and Trade” bill, which President Obama himself said would “skyrocket” the cost of electricity, natural gas and other heating fuels. It would also kill jobs from the coalfields all the way to Northern Virginia.

“It’s going to be a cold weekend, but when folks in the 5th and 9th Congressional Districts are reminded of what their Representatives did to fight global warming, I’m pretty sure they’ll warm right back up,” Mullins said.

Link: http://bit.ly/c5zrrz

afp on Fri, 5th Feb 2010 11:39 am 



AccuWeather.com reports a fast-moving snowstorm is overtaking the interstates 80, 81 and 95 corridors from Illinois to the Virginias and Maryland at midday today and will affect tens of millions of people into the weekend.

Initially, roads will be wet to slushy as the storm begins in some areas from Washington, D.C. to Philadelphia and New York City, but that will change.

Despite near- or above-freezing temperatures, the heavy rate of snowfall quickly covered roads in western North Carolina, western and southern Virginia, and in the West Virginia mountains in the morning.

Snowfall rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour in the southern mid-Atlantic will be a major problem with this storm and will overwhelm travelers and road crews alike. Roads may become clogged with stranded vehicles, further hindering cleanup operations.

Some airlines have begun to cancel flights in advance of the storm from Washington, D.C., to Philadelphia.

The brunt of the snow will be delivered tonight into Saturday across northern and western Virginia, northern West Virginia, south-central Ohio, Maryland, Delaware, southern New Jersey and southern Pennsylvania.

The hardest-hit areas will receive from 1 to 2 feet of snow from the storm. However, even on the northern fringe, enough snow will fall to slow travel and make for hazardous conditions.

As winds increase, whiteout conditions will develop, and temperatures will plummet, transforming the storm from heavy, wet snow to a blizzard near the coast.

In some areas, the weight of the snow and even some ice will down trees, power lines and weak-roofed structures.

Farther north, the snow will just graze southern New England with a bit snow, but winds will kick up, making for rough surf.

The New York City Metropolitan area will be on the fringe between little or no snow to the north and a very heavy snowfall to the south.

Areas from upstate New York to Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine and much of Massachusetts, will be missed entirely by the snow as it heads out to sea.

Rain or a wintry mix falling in the Ohio Valley states now will change to snow as colder air invades the storm.

Story by AccuWeather.com Senior Expert Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski

Raymond Firehock on Fri, 5th Feb 2010 12:27 pm 



It warms the cockles of my heart to see the Republican Party of Virginia taking time to turn snow into a partisan issue.

Are they hopelessly partisan or can’t they distinguish between weather (which is happening right now) and climate, which is long term trends?

Long term trends that, left unaddressed, will make this weekend’s weather something we look back to with longing.

There is some good news. NWS is calling for some 20 to 30 inches; earlier it was 24 to 38.

But that a lot no matter how you slice it. Birds are still appearing at my feeders, which I will keep stocked this weekend.

Mike on Fri, 5th Feb 2010 2:26 pm 



People see weather. When they saw hotter summers several years ago, it helps make a case for global warming. When they see the most snow in Charlottesville in over 125 years, saying global warming doesn’t fit into what we experience.
And we’re still cooler than the year 1000.

Brian Rostron on Fri, 5th Feb 2010 2:50 pm 



And we’re still cooler than the year 1000.
****
Umm, no. From Wikipedia about the Medieval Warm Period:

A study by Michael Mann et al. finds that the MWP shows “warmth that matches or exceeds that of the past decade in some regions, but which falls well below recent levels globally”.[8]

Mike on Fri, 5th Feb 2010 4:31 pm 



Michael Mann et al. start their graph in 1400. Everything looks warmer when your baseline is the Little Ice Age.
I figure it must have been warmer in the year 1000. Why else would the Vikings call Greenland that if it was icy like today?

Raymond Firehock on Fri, 5th Feb 2010 6:10 pm 



Should have never mentioned climate change. But as long as I did, the past decade was the warmest in modern times (since reliable records were kept) on a global basis. And all the good evidence points to increasing warmth driven by human activities. I probably won’t live to see the end, and for that I am glad.

That said, the birds did a good job on the feeders. When I went out to top them off, I noticed that unlike the last two big snows I am not sinking all the way down through powder snow. I am not exactly walking on top of the snow (too much of me for that), but am only sinking in a bit. This is heavier, wetter stuff which does not bode well for power lines, snow removal, and getting my car out.

afp on Fri, 5th Feb 2010 6:25 pm 



Unofficial snow total from Waynesboro: As of 6 p.m., 10 inches. Four inches in the past hour.

Brian Rostron on Fri, 5th Feb 2010 8:01 pm 



Michael Mann et al. start their graph in 1400. Everything looks warmer when your baseline is the Little Ice Age.
***

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/shared/articles/MannetalScience09.pdf

Brian Rostron on Fri, 5th Feb 2010 8:07 pm 



I figure it must have been warmer in the year 1000. Why else would the Vikings call Greenland that if it was icy like today?

***
Again, from Wikipedia:

A study by Michael Mann et al. finds that the MWP shows “warmth that matches or exceeds that of the past decade in some regions, but which falls well below recent levels globally”.[8] Their reconstruction of MWP pattern is characterised by warmth over large part of North Atlantic, Southern Greenland, the Eurasian Arctic, and parts of North America which appears to substantially exceed that of modern late 20th century (1961–1990) baseline and is comparable or exceeds that of the past one-to-two decades in some regions. Certain regions such as central Eurasia, northwestern North America, and (with less confidence) parts of South Atlantic, exhibit anomalous coolness.

afp on Sat, 6th Feb 2010 10:58 am 



10:02 a.m. Saturday update from the National Weather Service: Augusta County, Staunton and Waynesboro remain under a Winter Storm Warning through 10 p.m. Saturday.
Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches are possible today. Total accumulations in the area of 12 to 18 inches are possible with this storm.
Temperatures are expected to stay in the upper 20s to lower 30s through the evening hours.
Sustained 10 mph winds are forecast for the remainder of the winter-storm event, with gusts up to 20 mph this morning.

Farmer Frank on Sat, 6th Feb 2010 11:19 am 



First time in many years that my cows did not leave the barn while it is snowing. During the mid December snow they didn’t mind going out and came back with their backs covered with snow. Must be difference between the “dry” snow and “wet”snow. This one has a ratio of just a little over 4:1.
Had to shore up one hay shed this AM.

afp on Sat, 6th Feb 2010 5:46 pm 



4:50 p.m. Saturday update from the National Weather Service: The Winter Storm Warning has been canceled. The Valley snowstorm is coming to an end.

Raymond Firehock on Sat, 6th Feb 2010 10:06 pm 



The National Academy of Sciences (and others) looked at Mann’s data and conclusions both from 1400 AD and his data covering the earlier period. The conclusions?

“The basic conclusion of MBH99 [Mann's later paper] was that the late 20th century warmth in the Northern Hemisphere was unprecedented during at least the last 1,000 years. This conclusion has subsequently been supported by an array of evidence that includes both additional large-scale surface temperature reconstructions and pronounced changes in a variety of local proxy indicators, such as melting on icecaps and the retreat of glaciers around the world, which in many cases appear to be unprecedented during at least the last 2,000 years. Not all individual proxy records indicate that the recent warmth is unprecedented, although a larger fraction of geographically diverse sites experienced exceptional warmth during the late 20th century than during any other extended period from A.D. 900 onward.”

Carrying the correction back to the full millennium reveals that the largest effects remain in the early 15th century, and both earlier and later periods were less affected. Therefore, there is very little difference between the corrected MBH98 and MBH99 reconstructions and the originals, and the original observation that the late 20th century is uniquely warm in the context of the past 1,000 years is not affected.

Crystal Graham on Sat, 6th Feb 2010 11:27 pm 



A backhoe clearing snow has apparently crashed into the back of the Augusta Cleaners building on Federal Street in downtown Waynesboro. More details soon.

Raymond Firehock on Sun, 7th Feb 2010 7:53 am 



The second para of my previous comment should be attributed to: ” House Committee on Energy and Commerce Testimony July 27, 2006: TESTIMONY:
JAY GULLEDGE, Ph.D., SENIOR FELLOW, PEW CENTER ON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE, July 27, 2006″

The NAS quote appears in that testimony, also.

http://www.pewclimate.org/what_s_being_done/in_the_congress/7_27_06.cfm

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