The Pulse | Politics beyond health care
Column by Chris Graham
freepress2@ntelos.net
It can be easy to get myopic in our Who won today? scoreboard-focused political world, and in so doing assume that what’s majorly important today, like the months-old health-care debate, will be important tomorrow, next month and forever.
Even recent history suggests to us that politics is as much about the Janet Jackson 1980s song “What Have You Done For Me Lately?” as what happened even a couple of weeks ago.
It’s in that context that I bring up how I was talking recently with my friend Quentin Kidd, a political scientist at Christopher Newport University, about the political ramifications of the health-care debate on upcoming congressional elections in 2010.
Kidd’s first observation: “Once a bill passes, I think Republican opposition, which has been centered around fighting a bill from being passed, is going to dissipate.”
The reasoning: “It’s hard to be organized around opposing something that is the law.”
Good observation, good reasoning. I hadn’t thought of it this way, but yes, it does seem that there will be a creep toward inertia as it becomes accepted that whatever reform is the law of the land.
Kidd’s reckoning is that with the passage of a reform bill “the president’s approval rating goes up six or eight points” immediately thereafter, and members of Congress will be able to pull away from the national-issues front to focus on micro-level issues in their districts.
“Right now, everybody is sort of being sucked into the health-care vortex, but once it becomes law, it’s sort of off the table, it’s a done deal, and everybody can focus on what’s important to their district and focus on issues that are important to them and their constituents,” Kidd said.
It won’t take long for health care to have disappeared from the rearview mirror. “We’re not going to be talking about health care in the middle of the summer in 2010 if Obama signs a health-care bill into law in January,” Kidd said.
What will we be talking about? Kidd has an interesting thought there.
“You know what I think we’re going to be talking about? Immigration. I think that’s a tactical move on the part of the administration. Once health care is passed, to shift to a topic that’s going to divide Republicans,” Kidd said.
Food for thought …
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If health care passes by just one or two votes, I think the fire’s still there. Oust a few Democrats in 2010 and you begin the road to repeal.
Plus, with taxes starting three years before the program takes effect, there’s plenty of time to keep anger building. People will see their pay reduced or jobs lost while the money heads to Washington.
Is the pivot foreseen by Quentin Kidd already beginning? This press release was in our in-box this morning:
Public Furor & Backlash Over New Illegal Immigration Amnesty Bill
A national immigration enforcement advocacy group is warning members of Congress that the public backlash against the Comprehensive Immigration
Reform Amnesty bill to be filed by Congressman Luis Gutierrez
today is going to ignite an unprecedented political fire storm which
will cost many members of Congress their jobs in 2010.
“People feel shocked and completely betrayed that any elected
official would propose legalizing illegal immigrants, stopping local
police from enforcing immigration law, and stopping increased
border security when we have over 15 million Americans out of
work,” said William Gheen of Americans for Legal Immigration PAC
(ALIPAC). “The backlash on this bill is going to dwarf the rancor and
contentiousness of the healthcare debate and for good reason. The
current push for Amnesty is a prime example of how disconnected
Washington has become from the views and opinions of average
Americans.
Congressman Luis Gutierrez (D-IL) and other Democratic members
of Congress are expected to file their new bill today. In a letter
circulated to lawmakers last week, the bill sponsors promised to
legalize the illegal aliens in America, stop the 287(g) program which
allows local police to enforce immigration laws, and stop any
expansions of border patrol forces or barriers on the border.
A large collection of certified scientific polls at ALIPAC.us illustrate
that public opposition to this new Amnesty bill will be in the 70-80%
range.
ALIPAC activists across the nation stand ready to light up the phone
lines in Washington with the following messages.
The Obama and Gutierrez supported Amnesty legislation will hurt
the over 15 million innocent Americans who are unemployed. It will
cost American taxpayers billions more in stolen tax resources. It will
lead to more illegal immigration. It is favored by powerful special
interest groups but opposed by a large majority of Americans. It will
destroy any political hopes for future border enforcement or
immigration enforcement.
“ALIPAC’s goal is to defeat this new amnesty legislation and to
channel public anger and energy into the 2010 elections, when we
hope to help throw more members of Congress out of office than
any prior election in the history of the United States,” said William
Gheen of ALIPAC. “This legislation will permanently destroy the
borders and the United States as we know it. Americans of all races,
political parties, and walks of life want immigration enforcement,
instead of AMNESTY.”
ALIPAC has over 30,000 national supporters and recently became
the most supported organization in the immigration debates within
the social media of Twitter, MySpace, and Facebook. Found on the
web at http://www.alipac.us, the organization is credited with having
played a key roll in defeating three prior amnesty legislation
attempts in 2006 and 2007. In the last two years, ALIPAC has
focused on state level legislation where the group has won over
90% of the legislative battles passing pro-enforcement legislation
and defeating pro-Amnesty legislation.