The Pulse | One reason Deeds lost
November 9, 2009 by afp
Filed under *VirginiaPoliticsToday.com
And it’s a small thing, because Waynesboro isn’t going to turn an election one way or the other all by itself.
But my experience as the Democratic Party chair in Waynesboro the past couple of election seasons can be instructive nonetheless.
It strikes me that I hadn’t even bothered to look at how Creigh Deeds did in Waynesboro in last week’s state elections until this morning. That’s probably a sign of, one, how bad the beatdown was overall, and two, how little I felt I had invested in the effort at the local level.
We had built up quite the effective operation in ‘08 to aid Barack Obama, Mark Warner and Sam Rasoul, to the point where all outperformed internal expectations and well-outpaced previous-year Democratic-candidate numbers. Obama, for instance, received 44 percent of the vote in Waynesboro in ‘08, 14 percent higher than the 30 percent that John Kerry got in his race against George W. Bush in ‘04 - and about a 1,200-raw-vote difference in an election when turnout for the Republican candidate in ‘08, John McCain, was near the same level as it had been for Bush in ‘04.
Warner also did much better. Two days before the election, he asked me, quite seriously, if I thought Waynesboro was going to be in his favor. I told him I thought it would, but my thought was that he’d get a bare majority, given that he’d lost in Waynesboro in his gubernatorial run in ‘01, and he was about to lose in neighboring Augusta County in ‘08.
Warner ended up getting 58 percent of the vote in Waynesboro in ‘08, and I’m sure it’s not a secret why he and Obama - and even Rasoul, who ran five points better in Waynesboro than he did across the Sixth District - were able to do so.
Because they worked it, baby - canvassing and phone-banking from the early summer, leaving no stone unturned, literally, in their pursuit of every single vote that could come their way.
‘09 was a different story, at least in Waynesboro - and I’m putting that caveat out there, that I’m only speaking with specific knowledge of the ground game, or lack thereof, here in my backyard, because this is what I know.
But yeah, the Deeds camp did almost nothing here, outside of a midday, weekday visit in late August that I thought went over well, but looking back I remember was a bear for me to get people to come out to. I tried to write it off at the time to the timing of the event, which was arranged on short notice, and again was held in the middle of the day on a weekday and was thus not necessarily conducive to a big turnout.
I had hoped the Deeds visit would spur activity out of the local volunteer base, but as the weeks went on toward Election Day I realized that there was just nothing there. The lack of support or even basic interest from the Deeds campaign didn’t help there.
After last year, when we knocked on doors and made phone calls until we didn’t even need the scripts anymore because we had them committed to memory, we didn’t knock on a single door or make even a lone phone call for Deeds.
There was no official word from on high, but the sense that we got was that the focus was being placed elsewhere, ostensibly Northern Virginia, Richmond and Hampton Roads.
Which is all well and good, but the Obama campaign didn’t treat us as a backwater out in the middle of nowhere last year, and I would have thought that the campaign of a guy who bristled at having been called a “nobody from nowhere” in a newspaper column four years ago would have taken a similar approach.
In the meantime, Republicans worked their heinies off, both locally and statewide. They saw what Democrats did last year, and give them credit, they rolled up their sleeves.
I mentioned earlier that I looked up the Deeds numbers here in Waynesboro for the ‘09 election this morning.
Thirty-one percent. Basically back to where things were in ‘04 with Kerry. Ten points off, even, from when Warner lost here in ‘01.
Lesson learned: If you want it bad enough, you’ll work for it.
- Column by Chris Graham













Mike on Mon, 9th Nov 2009 2:37 pm
What’s interesting to me in the post-mortems is the complaints Deeds didn’t focus enough on Northern Virginia and the urban crescent. And you’re saying they didn’t focus on Waynesboro either.
Perhaps if he’d been named Barack Obama Deeds instead of R. Creigh.
Andrew Clem on Mon, 9th Nov 2009 4:22 pm
How does this tie into the perennial question of whether to target the party’s base or the independent voters? Your story suggests Deeds failed to do the former, at least in Waynesboro, but he didn’t seem to put much effort into courting non-Democrats either, leaving that field wide open for McDonnell. Was Deeds simply unable to make up his mind on basic strategic questions?
chrisgraham on Mon, 9th Nov 2009 5:41 pm
Organization and focus, lack thereof, that is, was the problem. GOTV efforts (canvassing, phone-banking) generally start with the base, but later expand to the middle and people who lean the other way, but aren’t necessarily solid in their leanings.
(Cat out of bag? Nah.)
But if you don’t even touch the base, there’s no way you can reach out to the middle and the leanings on the other side.
Paul Hampton on Mon, 9th Nov 2009 7:56 pm
First reason, election wise, is that the R’s and certain independents were fired up to vote for many months. Combine that with the fact that Deeds ran away from Obama on many issues and even declined to call himself an Obama Democrat - I wasn’t surprised that Obama voters weren’t motivated to come out and vote. Seems Deeds tried a futile effort to reach out to voters already sworn to oppose him. Second, or maybe an extension of the first, Deeds ran a campaign to extend Mark Warner’s legacy and offered diffuse deference to the economy and jobs issue. His literature had the word jobs in it but in small print in the body - not blazing across the headline. Third, or maybe an extension of the second and first reason, there were few young and minority voters compared to last year. Obama handily won the higher Democratic performing wards last year while this year with far fewer voters, Deeds lost handily.
We invested in a headquarters with phones and got a Deeds organizer for the it. We tried everything to get voters out. We had lists of voters who were considered 90% likely to have voted for Obama. We talked to thousands who were friendly and supportive in their manner. We left thousands of phone messages and pieces of lit for other voters. They just weren’t motivated to show up.
chrisgraham on Mon, 9th Nov 2009 7:59 pm
Great insights here. Thanks, Paul. A lot matches up to our experience. We also invested in an HQ with phones. We even paid for the phones. Only we didn’t get the paid organizer. I don’t think it would have mattered much.