On point one, I remember my boy T-Mac being at 40 percent in the polls in the spring, but then the same poll that had him there also suggesting that as much as 60 percent of the primary electorate could still change their minds before the primary.

Seems that most of those who said they could change their minds ended up doing so. T-Mac in particular lost 40 percent of his base from his best showing in the polls, while Deeds doubled where he was at that same time.

On point two, the numbers in this new poll are actually not much different than what we’ve seen from recent polls when you look at what they found to be the preferences among all registered voters surveyed. There is a 2- to 3-point swing in Deeds’ favor, but not the apparent 10-point swing that you’d assume to be the case given that McDonnell appeared to have a 15-point lead in one poll a couple of weeks ago.

Designating “likely voters” several months out is an art, not a science, and as such polling organizations really should stay away from employing the arts in what they’re passing off otherwise as hard data.

The apparent volatility in polls isn’t so much actual volatility as it is problems with methodology.

Fairly or unfairly, Kaine’s administration probably won’t be remembered fondly. Governors or presidents who have to preside over lean economic times and thus have to cut budgets and cut jobs and services to the core never end up being remembered that well.