Comments on: Developers move forward with Gypsy Hill Place

By: Chris Graham

Chris Graham — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 14:12:18 +0000

“Albemarle won’t let them.” Nice idea. Political winds change.

By: Mike

Mike — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 10:51:52 +0000

As much as Wal-Mart and Lowe’s might like to build in Crozet, Albemarle won’t let them. So Waynesboro is safe until we get flying cars. Then who knows where stores will go.

By: chrisgraham

chrisgraham — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 02:53:06 +0000

Wonderful. And we can assume that they will do this forever and ever amen. Because the Wal-Marts and Lowe’s of the world never abandon big-box store locations for new ones. Never happened once in human history. Particularly in, say, Staunton, where both moved two miles closer to the interstate to be able to better attract shoppers in Waynesboro and Crozet. Then willingly halved sales at those new stores to open new locations in Waynesboro to be closer to those Waynesboro and Crozet shoppers.

Nope, these Waynesboro stores aren’t threatened at all. Not for another couple of years, anyway.

You ought to resettle in Waynesboro and run for City Council here. You’ve got your finger on the pulse of this community, faint as it is (and fainter as it’s getting by the minute).

By: Mike

Mike — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 02:46:32 +0000

In Albemarle, you’re either from there and happy with current land use or passing through. They don’t mind if you go over the mountain to live and shop.
Lowe’s and Wal-Mart have staked out spots on the east and west sides of Albemarle (exit 94 in Waynesboro and exit 136 in Zions Crossroads.) They can get the Albemarle shoppers without the grief of being in Albemarle.

By: chrisgraham

chrisgraham — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 02:01:50 +0000

You seriously underestimate the ability of retailers/developers to satisfy demand, and the changing nature of political winds. Crozet/Albemarle is growing, retailers/developers will find a way to accommodate that growth, and voters/taxpayers in Crozet/Albemarle will realize (if they don’t realize it already) that spending sales-tax (read: “public school”) dollars in Waynesboro doesn’t help improve their lives when they get back home for the night.

By: Mike

Mike — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 01:06:35 +0000

OK, we won’t be a big box ghost town as long as the interstate is there.
After living and working in Charlottesville for nine years, I really doubt Albemarle will allow growth to really satisfy Crozet. Wasn’t it like pulling teeth to get a Harris Teeter out there?
Albemarle lives in fear of becoming northern Virginia. 29 North is already close to it, and they want to avoid Crozet being cluttered at all costs. It would take a serious economic downturn to change that way of thinking.
If the economy improves, there will still be a great need for Waynesboro stores. If the economy stays stagnant, stores won’t build in Crozet and the Albemarle won’t be able to offer tax breaks to entice them in.
Remember, Fishersville is growing because of my blog. The combined Waynesboro/Fishersville market will be at least remain stable.

By: chrisgraham

chrisgraham — Mon, 03 Aug 2009 22:07:13 +0000

Actually, Mike, the decisions have not been made, set, etc. Crozet is in the midst of a 20-year growth pattern that has Albemarle County planners estimating that it will be in the vicinity of 25,000 residents by 2025. It will have basically doubled in size since the West End of Waynesboro began to experience the current buildout.

The Wal-Marts and Lowe’s and Home Depots and Targets will have long since gotten their money’s worth out of their Waynesboro locations by that time. And Albemarle County voters are going to say at some point soon (if they haven’t already) that they want to be able to take care of their day-to-day needs at home as opposed to having to drive over a foggy mountain to do so.

To add a bit of a reality check to this, those big box retailers aren’t here because they love Waynesboro and think our view of the mountains is just too much to pass up. They’re here because they can reach the Waynesboro market (24,000 residents) and Crozet (currently 15,000 or so residents, depending on how you draw the lines). If Crozet grows significantly and Waynesboro retracts, as I suspect could be the case in the next 10 years, given the lack of sustainable-wage jobs in the local economy to keep young families here, and the aging of what you could call the indigenous population, what else is going to keep those retailers here? The money would be on the other side of the mountain; why make your customers drive 12 miles in fog when you can have them drive a mile or two?

And for that matter, Waynesboro is already well on its way to being a big box ghost town. The old Kmart (across from the “new” one, which opened in 1997) has been vacant for 12 years now. There’s an old Food Lion up the street that is going to be empty for quite a while. Leggett’s downtown – empty. Grand Home Furnishings downtown – empty.

Mike is mirroring the current thinking in Waynesboro among city leaders. I think that thinking is akin to playing a game of chicken with our future. Waynesboro isn’t just a big box ghost town when we lose.

By: Mike

Mike — Mon, 03 Aug 2009 21:35:47 +0000

Crozet’s always going to be there, and so will the shoppers. Albemarle County will not allow the variety and quality of stores we now have on the West End to land anywhere near Crozet. If they would, those stores would not be here. The decisions have already been made, the course has been set.
As long as UVa is there, people are coming to Charlottesville. Albemarle doesn’t want to handle them all. Greene, Madison, Fluvanna, Louisa, Nelson and Augusta will get the overflow.
You will be an old man driving on the 29 Western bypass before Waynesboro is a big box ghost town.

By: chrisgraham

chrisgraham — Mon, 03 Aug 2009 16:59:09 +0000

Those easy-flowing tax dollars are a short-term panacea and Waynesboro’s long-term doom. At some point in the near future, the big boxes that are now setting up shop to reach customers in Waynesboro and Crozet are going to redraw their lines at the realization that it’s Crozet driving things in Waynesboro.

If we go our present course, Waynesboro becomes a ghost town full of empty big boxes in 10 years.

We have a big advantage over Staunton in that respect. Staunton had to fix the plane mid-air. We have a few years head start to get things figured out. We can’t afford to piss this opportunity away.

By: Mike

Mike — Sat, 01 Aug 2009 17:18:14 +0000

The difference in miles is also the difference in proximity to Crozet. Waynesboro’s West End is becoming the shopping mecca of Western Albemarle. When tax dollars are flowing in easily, you don’t have to focus as strongly on the areas Staunton is focusing on.