The final polls, my prediction, more
Two new polls out Monday have Bath County State Sen. Creigh Deeds building a commanding lead in the Democratic Party gubernatorial primary heading into the Tuesday state primary.
The final pre-election Public Policy Polling poll has Deeds at 40 percent, with former nomination frontrunner Terry McAuliffe at 26 percent and former Northern Virginia lawmaker Brian Moran at 24 percent. The final pre-election Survey USA poll has Deeds at 42 percent to 30 percent for McAuliffe and 21 percent for Moran.
The two keys for Deeds – support in Northern Virginia and a massive break in McAuliffe critics in his direction. Deeds had been a distant third in NoVa as recently as mid-May, but now leads the three-way race among Northern Virginia voters in both of the new polls, getting 38 percent of the NoVa vote according to PPP and 40 percent according to SurveyUSA.
The PPP has an interesting breakdown looking at the preferences of voters who disapprove of McAuliffe, which comprise 40 percent of the electorate according to that poll. Deeds has a 58-35 lead among the anti-McAuliffes.
A third break speaks to the unique primary system in Virginia. PPP is projecting that 26 percent of the turnout in the Tuesday primary will come from independents and Republicans, and among those voters Deeds has a 48-22 lead over McAuliffe with 19 percent saying they will vote for Moran.
PPP has Deeds leading among self-identified Democrats by a 37-27 margin over McAuliffe with 25 percent for Moran. SurveyUSA has the race among Democratic voters much tighter, at 37 percent for Deeds to 35 percent for McAuliffe, and 20 percent or Moran, suggesting that even with the double-digit margins in Deeds’ favor right now the winner could still come down to whoever has the best get-out-the-vote operations on Election Day.
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Projections of voter turnout have been varying wildly, from an estimated 3 percent of the state’s 5.2 million registered voters, or about 160,000 voters, up to estimates from McAuliffe campaign insiders that have the total closer to 350,000. That higher figure was an indication from the McAuliffe camp that the feeling there was that it would need more nontraditional primary voters to turn out to pull the lever for McAuliffe, but the late trends in the race would seem to suggest that a higher turnout would actually benefit Deeds at McAuliffe’s expense.
I say that recognizing that a couple of weeks ago it was the Deeds camp that was saying that a low-turnout race would play out to its benefit in the primary because it had seemed that a lot of the McAuliffe support was coming from 18- to 34-year-old voters and independent voters, who now according to the subgroup data have gone from backing McAuliffe by 15 to 20 points are now with Deeds by similar margins.
I’d caution anybody following this race that the subgroup numbers that we’ve all been eating up the past few weeks represent small numbers of voters with much higher margins of error as a result of their small size.
I’d also caution that projections putting 26 percent of the primary electorate as independent and Republican voters could be wishful thinking on the part of the PPP and Survey USA pollsters, who it should be pointed out don’t have human interactions with their polling subjects, since they use automated survey technology to conduct their polls.
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That said, this race is now clearly Deeds’ to lose.
I’m going to join the chorus of those calling for low, low, low turnout, in the 3 percent area. I’m also going to break with the pollsters who are suggesting a relatively high turnout of independent and Republican voters; I think ultimately the nomination is going to be decided by Democrats
And I’m calling it for Creigh Deeds. I just don’t see any way for Terry McAuliffe and Brian Moran to Brian Moran to make up ground on Deeds at this late stage in the game. I don’t see it being the blowout that the polls are calling for, but I foresee a solid Deeds victory just the same.
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Which brings me to a final, personal observation. As a local Democratic Party committee chair, I’m going to need to be convinced that it’s going to be worth the time and trouble to do the heavy lifting that will need to be done to elect a social-conservative Democrat running against a social-conservative Republican when I’m not sure that Virginia is going to move in the right direction either way.
Projecting my energy level at this early stage, I’m having trouble conjuring up the idea that it’ll be there, but maybe I’m like the vast majority of Democrats who are still in post-’08 election fatigue and will skip the Tuesday primary because of having a million other better things to do.
- Column by Chris Graham
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- McAuliffe still leads, Deeds gaining slightly Terry McAuliffe continues to hold a double-digit lead in the race for the Democratic Party gubernatorial nomination, but Creigh Deeds has made up some ground...
- Moran, Wagner take leads in pre-primary polls Brian Moran has moved into the lead in the governor’s race, and Jody Wagner seems to be running away in the battle for the Democratic...
- McAuliffe, Moran neck and neck in new poll Terry McAuliffe has a slight lead in a new poll measuring support in the race for the 2009 Democratic Party gubernatorial nomination, but Brian Moran...
- McAuliffe, Moran neck and neck, Deeds trailing in poll More than half of the voters likely to participate in the June Democratic Party primary for governor are undecided, and those who are are split...
- McAuliffe still leads in Survey USA Another day, another poll, and another direction in the 2009 Democratic Party gubernatorial race. This one comes from Survey USA, which has Terry McAuliffe in...
If Deeds pulls this off, I can’t wait to read the post-game thoughts about how McAuliffe lost. And the thoughts of those who planned to support Moran before McAuliffe charged into the race.
I’d put this one in the category of Creigh winning it more than McAuliffe losing it. Deeds was Calvin Borel on Mine That Bird in the Kentucky Derby. He let the lead horses set the pace, then made his break at the right time, in Deeds’ case when the WaPo endorsed him.
I’ve not been one to put much stock in endorsements in the past, but it’s clear that the Post is playing a huge role in this race. Deeds was at 10-12 percent in NoVa before the Post endorsement, and now he leads up there. This jump has come in a span of three weeks.
But it wasn’t the endorsement alone. The Deeds folks played it well. Give them credit. They were able to solidify the anti-McAuliffe vote and make it theirs and theirs alone, by and large.
The only question from me is – did Deeds peak too early, like Mine That Bird in the Belmont? McAuliffe’s resources give him the ability to pull off a GOTV effort that Deeds could never match. Deeds, like Moran, had to make a call on either GOTV or TV spots. Deeds went TV spots; Moran went GOTV. McAuliffe can do both, and still might – slim chance, but still a chance – be able to pull off a shocker even in spite of the polls due to resources.
One furlong to go, and I’m already doing the postmortem. As if I don’t have enough on my plate already, right?
I think you hit the nail on the head. If Deeds wins, he has a real problem generating enthusiasm among progressives about supporting someone with such a socially conservative voting record . Deeds is going to have to reach out to progressives. He’s apparently clueless that there aren’t that many rural white conservative Democratic voters left. He did poorly in rural areas 4 years ago.
Chris, I will be very disappointed if you don’t go vote. I can’t think of anything more important for a committee chair to do.
Please reconsider. My abilities are limited, but there must be at least one thing you have to do today that I am capable of besides doing your voting for you, so let me know what it is and I’ll do it so you can vote.
Most Sincere Frank
2940310
I didn’t mean to suggest, Frank, that I’m not going to go vote today. What I meant to suggest was that like those who aren’t going to vote today, my energy for politics is sapped right now, and is going to need to be revived by our nominees.
Chris says:
I’m going to need to be convinced that it’s going to be worth the time and trouble to do the heavy lifting that will need to be done to elect a social-conservative Democrat running against a social-conservative Republican when I’m not sure that Virginia is going to move in the right direction either way.
Shorter Chris:
I’m going to cut off my nose to spite my face.
Don’t forget the national psychology of what losing the governorship to the Republicans would mean.
After the stunning gains made by Democrats in Virginia in the last two elections, losing in November would allow the Republicans to crow that their fortunes are reversing.
ANOTHER reason I worked tirelessly to insure the defeat of Terry McAuliffe in this primary: he would be one hundred percent incapable of defeating Bob McDonnell in November.
Breaking news – what Eddie is saying here, folks, is that on the off chance that McAuliffe wins today, he’s going to roll up his sleeves and work hard to get him elected. Because he wouldn’t cut his nose off to spite his face. And because losing in November would allow the Republicans to crow.
A key difference between Eddie and me – I didn’t work tirelessly to get another Democrat defeated. My motivation was to get somebody nominated. Which is to say that it will probably be easier for me to transition if my guy loses. Especially if the guy that he worked tirelessly to defeat is the winner.
That said, I’ll be waiting to be convinced, and I can be convinced. It’s not easy, but it happens every so often.
Man, all of my anti-McAuliffe ideas are going to go to waste.
I don’t know, Mike. Check out the Primary Day Live Blog. The McAuliffe folks are saying it’s a dead heat. (Which of course means they know they’re going to get their clocks cleaned by Deeds.)
Whoever put a picture of President Obama on McAuliffe’s mirror can take it down now. He may see Obama when he looks in a mirror, but no one else does.
McDonnell sees Reagan. The rest of us see Mark Earley.
Chris, I am sorry I misinterpeted your remarks. I guess I can only blame my speed reading. Creigh proved the nay sayers wrong and I am glad. Do you think these other people think Warner and especially Kaine were not “social conservatives’? And who determined BM is a s-c? He is a Robertson/Falwell extremeist just like Mark Early and Creigh can beat him this time if we work hard enough
New Hope Pig Farmer
I’d rather my Democratic candidates be conservative on fiscal issues, not social issues, that’s all. I’m afraid that when people hear Creigh talk about investments in transportation and education they’re going to interpret that as tax increases to pay for investments in transportation and education. Maybe they won’t hear that.
I don’t know, either, that we need to play close-to-the-vest conservative on social issues here. I think if Democrats in Virginia don’t stand up on behalf of civil rights for gays and lesbians and a woman’s right to choose, then we’re doing our belief system a disservice.
That said, I understand the politics. Creigh’s victory was convincing, and I think it was convincing enough to give us the momentum heading into the general that we need to not only win the governor’s race but also be in a position to take back the House. And that’s all we can ask for as far as our interests in moving Virginia forward.