Second, as I offer my thoughts in this comment I want to in no way diminish Sam’s political skills. I saw up close how talented he is, and he definitely has a bright future.

But many talented people lose elections for one reason or another. I’d like to offer 4 reasons why Sam was unsuccessful and Tom Perriello will be a Congressman in January.

1) The incumbent. Bob Goodlatte is not a caricature in the same way Virgil Goode has become. While Rep. Goodlatte has made impolitic remarks and cast (in my opinion) horrible votes, he has not garnered the national, negative, long-lasting attention bestowed on Goode. Goode’s history made it easier for a challenger to raise money outside the district because he was better known (and loathed).

2) Message. Perriello’s message was largely constructed by Common Good Strategies (www.cg-strategies.com), a firm with a history of helping Democrats reach out to Catholics and evangelicals. This resonated in the formerly conservative 5th.

Sam’s message, while consistent and timely, never took hold among evangelical moderates and conservatives. The 6th District has such a large number of evangelicals that any successful candidate will have to figure out how to make inroads in all religious communities.

3) Staff. Tom Perriello had a high-quality, experienced staff that stayed with him. Sam had an energetic army of volunteers who reached an incredible number of voters, but he was never lucky enough to find an experienced staffer who could take the campaign to the next level. A talented fundraiser, for example, would have done a lot to even the money between Rasoul and Goodlatte.

4) The party. Tom Perriello would not have won if the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee had not pushed hundreds of thousands of dollars into his race at the end. By refusing to accept any party funds, Sam handicapped himself. Coordination with the other campaigns was also difficult due to Sam’s stance on receiving help from the Democratic Party.

Running in the 6th is hard enough without creating additional hardships. Party money could have boosted Sam’s campaign and evened the gap with Goodlatte.

Unfortunately, the Democratic wave year of 2008 will not be easily replicated. 2010 will be a lot like 1998, when Goodlatte was the only federal candidate on the ballot. Bowers had a tough time getting traction as Lewinsky dominated headlines. Any candidate who runs in 2010 has to hope the Obama administration has fixed the economy by Election Day.

Otherwise, 30% is going to look like an awfully high number.