The Biden trump
August 23, 2008 by afp
Filed under *VirginiaPoliticsToday.com
Special Commentary by Chris Graham
freepress2@ntelos.net
Joe Biden isn’t the breakaway dunk that Hillary Clinton or Mark Warner would have been for Barack Obama, but to continue with the basketball analogy, he’s the back-to-the-basket post player who can rebound and play defense that every team needs to be able to win a championship, or in this case an election.
Which is to say, given a couple of days to think it through, since it became clear to me on Thursday that Biden was the pick, I’m seeing the wisdom of Obama-Biden that I didn’t see initially.
Clinton would have closed the most obvious gap in Obama’s resume by giving the Illinois senator unfettered access to her primary and caucus supporters, nearly half of whom haven’t committed themselves to the Obama candidacy according to recent polls. But could that have been a smokescreen on the part of the Hillaryites out there to try to convince Obama through the pollsters that he needed to put their woman on the ticket with him? I’m cognizant of the fact that there are people who think themselves lifelong Democrats and who supported Hillary Clinton in the nomination season who will not vote for Obama in November. I talked with a local Dem here in Augusta County at length at the county fair a couple of weeks back who expressed to me that she was hoping that “something would come out” about Obama akin to the news that former presidential-nomination contender John Edwards had had an affair, “and then Hillary gets the nomination.” That woman, and people like her, are not going to vote for Obama, and whether they vote for McCain or not on Nov. 4, those are votes lost to Obama. But I wonder if those voters would have cast their lots for Obama even with Hillary on the ticket. And I’m wondering if the more thoughtful among that voter subgroup won’t eventually come around now that it’s Biden, another experienced Senate Democrat.
As far as Virginia is concerned, I am beginning to see where Biden will be a big help to the Obama effort, and maybe more so than anyone not named Mark Warner could have been on the national ticket. (And of course we effectively have Warner on our national ticket, since he’s running for Senate and is expected to have upward coattails for Obama.) Biden’s tenure as chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and long track record of experience in international matters will be a tremendous boost to the ticket in Hampton Roads, which my friend Quentin Kidd at Christopher Newport University tells me is open for the taking by Democrats based on recent election trends. Obama will already do very well in Northern Virginia and the Richmond area, where he oupolled Clinton and Republican John McCain by wide margins in the Feb. 12 presidential primary in Virginia. And I think he has a fighting chance in the Valley, Southwest and Southside due to the presence of Biden and Warner on the ballot, and even if he doesn’t win majorities out this way, I think he can mirror the efforts of Warner in 2001, Tim Kaine in 2005 and Jim Webb in 2006 and do well enough out there to build a winning effort in the Old Dominion come November.
Now to the impact on McCain, who it seems has been waiting to come up with his own VP selection based on the news from the Obama camp that has now finally after a long wait come in. The talk in recent days has been that McCain seems to be settling on former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney or independent (and former Democratic) Connecticut senator Joe Lieberman. I would mention Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty in this grouping, since he has been getting some pub, though fading, in recent days, but I think the Biden pick on the Dem side pushes the inexperienced Pawlenty to the wayside, as it does Florida Gov. Charlie Crist. The Electoral College strategy just won’t work for McCain now that Obama has decided to play the experience card. That said, McCain stands to risk losing ground with either Romney or Lieberman depending on the demographic group that you consider that each appeals to and detracts from. Romney, no question, energizes the hard-core conservatives in the GOP, though the hardest of the hard core might still worry about his tendency to flip-flop from the Romney who was the moderate Massachusetts governor and the Romney who was the committed conservative on the presidential trail depending on the audience. And Lieberman, no questin, again, gives McCain a legitimate shot at bringing to the GOP ticket the votes of those disaffected Hillary supporters who don’t want to pull the lever for Obama and are offended that he didn’t pick Clinton as his VP.
But a Lieberman selection quiets the conservative base in an instant and pushes the McCain candidacy into the dust bin of history with George McGovern and Walter Mondale. And a Romney selection, while not having that dramatic an impact, still puts McCain behind the 8 ball, because while it energizes to a degree the conservative base that he will need to have behind him to win on Nov. 4, it gives those disaffected Hillary voters something to think about when it comes to having to hold their nose and vote for Obama, whose ideals, at least, match their own, or having to hold their nose and vote for McCain, a onetime moderate whose administration would clearly turn the world in a decidedly different direction than they would ever want to see it go, personal feelings aside.
John McCain has a lot of soul-searching to do in the next several days, and personally, I don’t see any way he can come out of the Veepstakes with a valid declaration of victory at this point. And remember, the guy saying this was saying just a couple of days ago that the signs were pointing elsewhere.
That’s called the value of a full night’s sleep, which I was finally able to get last night for the first time in a couple of weeks after this wild Veepstakes at long last came to a close.
Brian Rostron on Sat, 23rd Aug 2008 7:28 pm
Biden’s an ok pick, but I think that Clinton or Richardson would have had more upside. I think that McCain would be wise to pick Romney, who would across as more telegenic and charismatic than Biden. Picking Lieberman would seem odd, given his history of party affiliation. It reminds me of when I asked someone whose family is Jewish what they thought of Lieberman’s selection in 2000 as the first Jewish vice-presidential nominee and he said, “Well, they would be more excited if he weren’t a Republican running as a Democrat.”
Bill Dolack on Sat, 23rd Aug 2008 8:18 pm
“Romney, no question, energizes the hard-core conservatives in the GOP, though the hardest of the hard core might still worry about his tendency to flip-flop from the Romney who was the moderate Massachusetts governor and the Romney who was the committed conservative on the presidential trail depending on the audience.”
Wow. What can I say?
If you listen to Hannity, et al, you’d certainly come away believeing that the “hard core” conservatives will be energized by Romney as VP. But there are lots of hard core conservatives who either will not vote for McCain under any circumstances, or won’t vote for him if he picks Romney.
And these are some big names like Stephen Strang, Ted Baehr, Janet Folger, and Bill Dolack.
Okay, I slipped my name in there but it’s still true. Vote for a ticket with Romney on it? No way. The man is NOT a commited conservative… he’s what he needs to be to get elected, although enough people saw through his phoniness to doom his presidential bid.
If McCain picks Romney, there will be a huge defection from the Republican Party… and that could easily tip the election to Obama.
Brian Rostron on Sat, 23rd Aug 2008 9:14 pm
Here’s one good thing about Biden - he’s a big supporter of Amtrak, using it to commute to work each day among other things.
And who do conservatives want for VP? Huckabee? He seems like a nice guy, but I think he’d be quite over his head at that level.
Bill Dolack on Sat, 23rd Aug 2008 9:35 pm
I think Huckabee would be a great choice (that’s why I still have Huckabee bumper stickers on my car). He’s got proven executive experience… something McCain and the Obama/Biden ticket all lack.
Brian Rostron on Sat, 23rd Aug 2008 10:28 pm
Wouldn’t it be a bit embarrassing to have a creationist as vice-president in this century? It’s bad enough that Romney has held a high position in an organization that has never repudiated its ideology of white supremacy, but one can perhaps hope that he doesn’t actually that to some extent indigenous peoples of the Americas were descended from ancient Lamanites who were punished with dark skin because of disobedience.
What happened to the good old days when Republicans tended to be patrician New Englander types with a certain sense of noblesse oblige or idiosyncratic Westerners with an individualistic streak?
Bill Dolack on Sun, 24th Aug 2008 3:36 pm
While I am not enamored by the Republican Party as a whole, I can turn your comment around and ask what happened to the good old days were the Democrats tended to be men like Scoop Jackson?
And, Brian, perhaps a large part of the problem in our country today is precisely because of the attitude of those who would be “embarrassed” by a VP who believes in creationism. I think it’s far more embarrassing to have a VP who falls for the totally unproven theory of evolution.
Ted on Sun, 24th Aug 2008 11:15 pm
Despite the Dems and the allied main stream media’s desperation to see Romney as McCain’s Veep, Mitt is clearly out, with (1) Obama doubling down on the class warfare theme (McCain’s 7 houses) and (2) McCain doubling down with ads showing the hypocrisy of Biden attacking Obama in the primaries — Romney did way more than that contra McCain.
This leaves only Govs Sarah Palin and Tim Pawlenty. Pro-abortion Ridge and Dem-Lieberman were never real considerations, despite relentless media goading. Pawlenty’s lackluster TV performances, coupled with Palin pizzazz, the primacy of oil drilling and the ticked off women/Hillary voters, does now portend a McCain/Palin checkmate on the Dems. This is so albeit the Dems and liberal media dare not mention Palin’s name, that is, everyone but…..
And if there’s any question as to Palin being uniquely positioned and able to more than nullify Biden in debate, see the excellent discussion at palinforvp.blogspot.com
Team McCain, well done!!!
Joe Knows Politics : Star City Harbinger on Mon, 25th Aug 2008 11:32 am
[...] Augusta Free Press had a veteran newspaper reporter’s view of the impact of the Biden selection. Lead N. Va. blog, Raising Kaine had first impressions on media responses here. [...]
Bruce on Mon, 25th Aug 2008 2:32 pm
Brian Rostron writes…
“Wouldn’t it be a bit embarrassing to have a creationist as vice-president in this century?”
A great example of today’s “open minded” intolerant liberal thought process to condemn everyone who doesn’t tote the party line and think like they do.
What happened to all the talk about tolerance?? Or do you just have tolerance for people who agree and think like you do Your parties must be a blast.
Conservatives are honest enough with themselves to admit what they believe in and that they by choice hold to a certain values system…but the process has turned the “open-minded” into a hierocratic far more restrictive than the judgments they hurl against ”conservatives” who believe in a loving Creator Father.
Evolution has such a major problem that what thinking person could ever admit to buying into this thought process. Where do I come from???
From apes?? No you have to go further
From Reptiles?? No go further
From Fish?? No go way back
OK I got it “from that primordial stew.” No, go further back
I am not willing to believe that we came from water (where did that come from) washing over rocks. We did not come from rocks!
So Brian, please do some more thinking before you pound on your drum.
chrisgraham on Mon, 25th Aug 2008 2:36 pm
A classic conservative rejoinder. Hitting someone on perceived liberal intolerance, opening the door wide enough to drive a truck through to make a point, then closing it again having made the point, ironically in favor of one of the more closed-minded social issues out there.
Tripp on Tue, 26th Aug 2008 12:13 am
Common Chris. Biden, like Hilliary, has repeatedly stated that BHO is not ready to be commander-in-chief. That’s a problem. Also, he is a Washington insider, hurting his message of youth and change.
Obama should have selected the Senator from Indiana or Chuck Hagel.
Also, Day 1 of the Convention was a big bust.
chrisgraham on Tue, 26th Aug 2008 8:48 am
Biden’s past statements on Obama would only be a problem as long as McCain doesn’t select Romney or Huckabee to be his VP. Both Romney and Huckabee were critical of McCain on the trail. I’d like to give Republicans credit for having the sense to make sure that their message on Obama-Biden was consistent with their own VP selection, but they have tended to attack first and take stock later in recent years.
I wouldn’t call Day 1 of the convention a big bust. It was underwhelming from my perspective, so maybe I’m splitting hairs with the words “big bust.” I look ahead to Day 1 of the GOP convention and note that Dick Cheney is on the schedule of speakers. That will be something of a thud itself.
Aaron on Tue, 26th Aug 2008 12:37 pm
Chris please elaborate more on what you mean by this statement, especially the last part….
A classic conservative rejoinder. Hitting someone on perceived liberal intolerance, opening the door wide enough to drive a truck through to make a point, then closing it again having made the point, ironically in favor of one of the more closed-minded social issues out there.
chrisgraham on Tue, 26th Aug 2008 12:56 pm
Good question, Aaron. I hear often enough from conservatives that they perceive people that they label as liberals as being intolerant of positions outside their own on social issues when making arguments that run counter to what the perceived liberals themselves believe. But in the course of making this point, they set themselves up for criticism if they follow making this particular point with an argumentative point on the merits of their position on the social issue.
To wit, if I argue that you’re not being open-minded in considering my point on abortion that all abortion is wrong and evil and harmful to the natural order, I am also by definition not being open-minded to whatever you might say on the issue in opposition to my point.
Which is to say, we can’t have it both ways. Either we’re open-minded to points, or we’re not. I’ve heard from enough conservative commentators about others not being open-minded to think that this is a debating-point phenomenon among conservative commentators, thus my observation that the line of argument demonstrated above is “a classic conservative rejoinder.”
No offense meant to conservatives who use this line of argument. Maybe they don’t realize that they are setting a double standard of sorts. I think it’s only fair to ask rhetorically that all of us - liberals, moderates, conservatives, agnostics, etc. - debate on fair and equal terms.
Aaron on Tue, 26th Aug 2008 5:12 pm
When reading your last post, this phrase came to mind, “one man’s convictions is another man’s narrow-mindedness”.
In that I mean that there are things that “conservatives” (as I’m sure that “liberals” as well) have issues that are not up for discussion. We hold these things as our core values and are unable to separate them from our world view.
My question to Brian would be why would it be embarrassing to have a VP that believed in creationism and why the phrase “in this century”? Are we supposed to be more enlightened in this century than our forefathers were?
chrisgraham on Tue, 26th Aug 2008 9:43 pm
I’m not for or against conservatives. Myself , I’m a political centrist, fiscally commonsensical (you could say conservative, but whatever), and I feel socially conservative, but it’s conservative in the sense that I don’t think government or anybody else should go around telling people how to live their lives (which by today’s definition, somehow, some way, makes me a liberal).
I was pointing out what I view as a double-sided debating tactic. Pointing out that somehow is closed-minded and then presenting a closed-minded set point of view is intellectually unfair. If I’m judging this debate, I have to call it a draw.