Obama leads polls, early Electoral College rendering
Analysis by Chris Graham
freepress2@ntelos.net
Democrat Barack Obama continues to hold a four-point lead over Republican John McCain in the daily tracking polls of Gallup and Rasmussen Reports.
The lead in the Gallup poll has Obama up by a 47 percent-to-43 percent margin. Rasmussen has Obama up 44 percent-to-40 percent, with a 47 percent-to-45 percent lead with leaners included.
The Rasmussen people also have an updated tally on how the Electoral College race is looking. Obama has a solid lead in states that would give him 210 electoral votes, according to Rasmussen, while McCain has the lead in states with 168 votes. With leaners included, Obama has a 293-227 lead.
Virginia and Nevada are listed by Rasmussen as toss-up states even accounting for leaners.
A Zogby International poll released last week gave Obama a 44 percent-to-39 percent lead in Virginia.
The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do in the closely divided battleground states, but that we shouldn’t have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.
The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote — that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided “battleground” states. Two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.
Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.
The National Popular Vote bill has been approved by 20 legislative chambers (one house in Colorado, Arkansas, Maine, Massachusetts, North Carolina, and Washington, and two houses in Maryland, Illinois, Hawaii, California, New Jersey, Rhode Island, and Vermont). It has been enacted into law in Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These states have 50 (19%) of the 270 electoral votes needed to bring this legislation into effect.
See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com