Be a match-maker

Golf Things Considered column by John Rogers
JSpencerRogers@msn.com  

Good golf and good golf instruction are like all these new on-line dating services – they try to bring together things that are compatible. Golfers tend to think that there is a perfect swing, and they spend their days trying to dig it out of the dirt, as Ben Hogan put it. In my mind, a swing is good if most of its components fit together. A swing is less functional if one part is plaid and another part is polka dots. In other words (so I can use three different metaphors in one paragraph), there are a lot of ways to skin the cat when it comes to hitting a golf ball; the trick is to make sure you’re using only one way. Read more

Should Virginia try to land the Nats?

Story by Chris Graham

The uncertainty over the latest twist in the ongoing saga involving the Washington Nationals and their quest to land a new stadium in the District might result in bringing Virginia back into the Major League Baseball picture.

Published reports regarding the D.C. City Council’s move earlier this month to put a cap on the amount of money that it would commit to a new stadium for the Nationals had Gov. Tim Kaine’s office expressing interest in the team on behalf of the Commonwealth.

Kaine spokesman Kevin Hall appeared to reiterate that interest in response to a query from The Augusta Free Press on the subject.

“The governor welcomes the return of Major League Baseball to the Capital region, and we’re supportive of the District’s effort to maintain their franchise,” Hall said last week.

“If, for some reason, the D.C. deal falls through, and Major League Baseball wants to talk, they know where to find us,” Hall told the AFP.

Whether or not the Democratic governor would find support among Virginia political leaders for pitching a publicly-financed-stadium plan is another question.

“I’ve not been supportive of this effort – because I don’t think we ought to use taxpayer dollars to promote basically a private-sector business that makes lots of money to encourage them to come into the state,” said Steve Landes, a Weyers Cave Republican who is the chair of the Republican caucus in the Virginia House of Delegates.

“I don’t think we need to use public funds for these kinds of purposes,” Landes said. “Virginia citizens would be forced to pay twice for this stadium – once if we use these special funds or special authority, and then they’ll be paying again for years through ticket sales.

“I think it’s ridiculous that we’ve set up a separate authority and a stream of separate, dedicated funding and given them the bonding authority and these kinds of things – because basically the taxpayers shouldn’t be responsible for funding a private-sector entity like that, especially in professional sports, where they make tons of money,” Landes said.

“It seems to me that they ought to have enough money to build a new stadium and to locate or relocate wherever they want to,” Landes told the AFP.

Public financing for pro-sports stadiums is touted by supporters as being a win-win for taxpayers – who get sports franchises in their backyards and the economic growth that is said to come with the attention given the games that are played.

Whether or not the economic impact is sufficient to justify the expenditures is a question on the mind of Scott Wallsten, a resident scholar at the Washington-based American Enterprise Institute.

“There’s no real justification for public financing of stadiums,” Wallsten said. “They don’t generate economic benefits. They don’t help revitalize neighborhoods. The economic research on this is pretty solid. The only studies that show positive effects are the ones commissioned by baseball and people who want a stadium built.”

Washington city officials are projecting the addition of 3,500 jobs and $15 million in local tax revenues from the stadium. What is left unsaid there is that a shopping-mall development can generate a similar amount of economic activity at a much reduced taxpayer price tag.

Wallsten cited the development of a $150 million shopping complex in the District that is expected to add 1,000 jobs to the local economy and $12 million a year in tax revenues – with relatively limited public involvement in the project.

“Even if you assume that they were right about the revenues that baseball would be expected to generate, and I don’t think that they are, it’s pretty much exactly the same amount. And the developers of this project didn’t get any public funds. And that’s going to be a bigger benefit for the city,” Wallsten said.

“If someone would have suggested giving them $600 million to build a shopping complex in the city, you can imagine the outrage. And in fact, the economic benefit is bigger,” Wallsten told the AFP.

A key reason for that is that a retail development has impact on an economy 365 days a year, notes Dennis Coates, an economics professor at the University of Maryland-Baltimore County.

“Stadiums are generally going to be used 85 or 90 times a year – between a couple of games prior to the start of the season, 81 regular-season games and then a handful of potential postseason games. It’s hard to imagine that that kind of use of the facility could compare with the shopping center that’s used every day,” Coates told the AFP.

A drawback for each is that in the case of both new retail developments and sports-stadium developments, “the kind of spending that they can bring to an economy is probably not new spending,” Coates said.

“It’s spending that would have happened otherwise – just in a different location,” Coates said. “By and large, if you think about as people have a fixed budget, and they’re going to spend a certain proportion of that budget, generally speaking, on entertainment activities, and that could mean movies, dinner out, bowling, going camping, whatever, now you throw attending baseball games into the mix.

“OK, so what are they going to do? Save less? Borrow against their other assets so they can increase their spending on entertainment? Or are they going to reduce their spending on other things – generally entertainment kinds of things – to be able to finance attending baseball games?

“If you think they’re going to substitute between different kinds of spending, then there’s no new spending created – it’s just substitution. Different people are getting the benefits of the spending, but there isn’t any new kind of benefit generated,” Coates said.

That realization hasn’t stopped cities and states across the country from getting themselves involved in stadium-construction projects.

“A stupendous amount of money goes into public stadiums and arenas – probably somewhere upwards of $2 billion a year, when you count all the local, state and federal money that goes into it. And the public does not get back any sort of benefit close to what it’s putting into it,” said Neil deMause, the coauthor of Field of Schemes: How the Great Stadium Swindle Turns Public Money Into Private Profit.

“The bulk of the funds comes from taxpayer money – whether it’s direct subsidies, whether it’s property-tax breaks, whether it’s requiring the teams to only have to pay a dollar a year in rent – and the vast majority of the benefits goes to the teams. They’re the ones who get all the luxury-suite money, they’re the ones who get all the naming-rights money, they’re the ones who get all the money from the huge concessions concourses that are built,” deMause said.

“It’s an inequitable deal, but teams continue to use the leverage of, if you want a team, well, you’ve got to play by our rules to extract money from the public,” deMause told the AFP.

The question as to why elected leaders play along is “the $64,000 Question,” deMause said.

“Building stadiums is something that appeals to local politicians and mayors, especially, because it’s something that you can show off,” deMause said. “You can put a plaque on a stadium, but you can’t put a plaque on reduced first-grade class sizes. You can’t go sit in the front row on opening day at the new grade school and wave at the crowd, but you can at a baseball stadium.”

Wallsten said he would have no problem with the political efforts to this end if those presenting the case for public financing of sports stadiums were up front with the facts.

“If politicians went to the voters and said, look, this isn’t going to bring any economic development, but we’re going to spend this much money, and have a team here, is it worth that much to you, and then put it to a vote, and the citizens said yes, well, then I think everything would be just fine,” Wallsten said.

“The problem is that they sell it on a lie – which is economic development. And it doesn’t bring economic development,” Wallsten said.

“And so if instead you were to ask people – this started out as $500 million, and now it’s pushing toward $700 million – and say, this is going to run about $1,000 a person, are you willing to commit that to have baseball come here to Washington? They’re going to look at you and say, are you kidding me?” Wallsten said.

 

(Published 02-27-06)

First ladies: Women taking increasingly active role in politics

The Top Story by Chris Graham

 

Jean Donovan had to make sure that she had a babysitter lined up.

That’s what she remembers about her early years on Staunton City Council.

“I don’t think anybody else on council had to do that. That was partly a function of being a woman – and in particular a single woman,” said Donovan, who is finishing up her second term on the city council.

Having to line up a babysitter in advance of attending public meetings is just one of the challenges that women in politics face. But more and more women are facing up to the challenges – which include the overt sexism of peers and the more subtle decisions of voters who cast their lots against female candidates based on prejudice.

“There are some preconceived stereotypes that exist that can serve as an obstacle. But I think it’s getting better,” said Lorie Smith, the current chair of the Waynesboro School Board, who is readying for her first campaign for Waynesboro City Council this spring.

“We’ve seen a dramatic shift in the ’80s and ’90s and into this century with more political involvement by women, and I think that’s a good thing,” Smith told The Augusta Free Press.

Indeed, the talk about the role of women in contemporary politics is getting serious with the expectation that New York Sen. Hillary Clinton and Secretary of State Condolezza Rice will be among the top contenders for the White House in 2008.

“Having several women receiving serious attention as presidential contenders is going to have an impact on the number of women who want to get involved at every level,” said Marie Wilson, the founder of the New York-based White House Project and the author of Closing the Leadership Gap: Why Women Can and Must Help Run the World.

“That’s where things really have to start,” Wilson told the AFP. “It can be difficult for organizations to go out and recruit and train women for involvement in politics because many women who have the skill-set to be effective political leaders don’t see themselves that way. So the attention being placed on women like Hillary Clinton and Condolezza Rice can serve to help more women see themselves as being potential political leaders.”

“Every time a high-profile woman runs for office, it breaks down the barriers,” said Laura van Assendelft, a Mary Baldwin College political-science professor and author of Women, Politics and American Society, which examines issues related to the increasing presence of women in modern political life.

“Even if she is not successful, she paves the way for the next attempt, and the novelty of a woman running for elite office wears off,” van Assendelft told the AFP.

“Little girls see women run for the presidency, and they might dream of doing it, too. Women at the local level may become inspired by the high-profile women and the issues they draw attention to. It’s all good,” Assendelft said.

That women running for political office draw attention to issues that their male counterparts often overlook was evident in Virginia Democratic Party lieutenant-governor candidate Leslie Byrne’s 2005 campaign – which focused on matters related to family health care, primary and secondary education and jobs.

“What I like to pose to my students is, what if the delegates and senators representing this area in Richmond were young, black females? How would policy differ?” said Donovan, herself a political-science professor at Mary Baldwin College.

Donovan’s first campaign for public office eight years ago came after she spoke out about an issue near and dear to her heart – her children’s education – at a city-council budget hearing.

“I felt that my kids’ education should be more well funded in the city of Staunton than it was. For example, when I went into the classrooms, I was really shocked at how old the materials were, the books, the play materials, the toys, and I thought, my goodness, this is a surprise. And plus the physical facility not having air conditioning and being such a dingy old building,” Donovan told the AFP.

When the council voted against a proposal to increase funding for the school system, “I was angry,” Donovan said.

“And then I looked at who was on council, and I saw a very monolithic group – mostly older white men, none of whom had children in our school system. And I thought, this is not really an appropriate situation in a representative democracy. How can retired white men represent the interests of young families today?” Donovan said.

Still, Donovan recalls having to be talked into running for one of the open city-council seats in the next year’s election.

“Some people who were school advocates asked me to run. I thought about it for six or eight months. They volunteered to help, and I took them up on it and decided to run,” Donovan said.

Men “don’t have this problem” as far as needing encouragement to run for public office, Wilson said.

“Men who run for office don’t have a problem identifying themselves as leaders. But women tend to need a push from somebody who says, ‘The way you worked through that problem with the school was great. You should run for the school board,’ ” Wilson said.

The University of Virginia Center for Politics is working to bring attention to these issues involving women and politics. Its National Symposium on Women and Politics kicks off this week with an event focusing on the activity involving Clinton, Rice and others for the 2008 Democratic Party and Republican Party presidential nominations.

“We at the center want to get people from all walks of life to be more involved in politics. This series, in particular, we hope will generate more interest among young women in politics. We hope that young women will see that they can be more involved in politics themselves,” said Holly Hatcher, the assistant director of programs at the Charlottesville-based Center for Politics.

The effort will begin at home, so to speak.

“Virginia has an interesting history. We didn’t ratify the 19th Amendment giving women the right to vote until 1952 – well after the amendment was ratified at the federal level giving women the right to vote,” Hatcher told the AFP.

“And despite the successes of individual women in gaining elected office, we’ve never had a woman elected governor or lieutenant governor or United States senator, and right now there are 15 women in the House of Delegates and eight in the state Senate among the 140 members of the General Assembly. So while strides have been made, there is plenty of work still to be done in that respect,” Hatcher said.

Smith sees the light at the end of that tunnel – and it’s not far down the tunnel, either.

“I think there’s a little less sensitivity today to gender bias, and I think that has to do with the way that we’re raising our young children,” Smith said. “I think that parents are trying to raise children that are highly competent, that are self-confident, that are critical thinkers and are decision-makers. And I think in particular women are trying to ingrain these characteristics in their daughters.

“When women grow up surrounded by these values and surrounded by the thought that they can achieve, I think we will continue to be producing more and more female leaders in our country because of that,” Smith said.

 

(Published 02-20-06)

 

A cartoon controversy – or something like it

Story by Chris Graham

It has been described as a cartoon controversy. But the issue involving the drawings depicting the Prophet Muhammad published in a Danish newspaper last fall is a lot more than that.

“I liken this to a stovetop, and the pots are at a rolling boil right now in Afghanistan, Lebanon, Pakistan, Libya, Iran, Syria, the UK and in lots of other places. Well, those pots were already simmering on the stovetop long before the cartoons appeared, and so it is somewhat deceiving to depict the demonstrations and riots as purely responses to a cartoon,” said Timothy Gianotti, a professor of Islamic philosophy and theology at the University of Virginia.

The boiling reaction of Muslims to the publication of the cartoons – which have appeared in newspapers worldwide in recent weeks since their first appearance in September – has led to 19 deaths in the past month in demonstrations in Europe and the Middle East.

That the protests have taken on a more generally anti-Western and even specifically an anti-American tone is perhaps a sign of the times that we live in.

“This is not just about a cartoon. This is not just a cartoon controversy,” Gianotti told The Augusta Free Press. “This is part of a much larger historical evolution – at least to Muslims a continuation of the colonial period. This is not just about a cartoon. This is about the whole conglomeration of issues that are coming to a head with the publication of this cartoon and then the defiant republication of the cartoon in France and other places.”

The violence associated with demonstrations overseas has yet to appear in the United States – where Muslim leaders have been urging restraint on the part of the faithful.

“We do not condone the violence which has erupted in many Muslim countries,” said Ehsan Ahmed, the secretary general of the Harrisonburg-based Islamic Association of the Shenandoah Valley.

“We believe that Muslims around the world must follow the example of Prophet Muhammad, who was compassionate and man of mercy,” Ahmed said.

“During his lifetime, when he was insulted or encountered offensive behavior, he did not respond with rage or violence. Instead he taught his followers to respond with mercy and best behavior,” Ahmed told the AFP.

That isn’t to say that the American Islamic community hasn’t been impacted at all by the images that have stirred up passions across the globe.

“The global community should not allow people to humiliate the sacred and religious values and dignity of any people in the name of freedom of expression, and should assure respect for the beliefs and religions for all, even if they are of other religions or ideologies,” said Amer A. Al-Zubaidi, a minister at the Roanoke-based Kufa Center of Islamic Knowledge.

“There is no place in this world for racism and prejudice. Unity and avoidance of sectarian and ethnic differences should be strongest goal of Muslims, so that they might prevent people from indulging into extravagance and immoderation, and bring the human-self under the control of reason and the law,” Al-Zubaidi told the AFP.

The more peaceful reaction to the controversy in the States could be due in part at least to the decisions of editorial leaders at all but a few major American newspapers against republishing the cartoons.

That approach has not exactly been met with universal praise by media watchers – whose criticisms have ranged from concerns about the implications on press freedoms to others that question whether the news media has allowed itself to be backed into a corner out of fear.

“I think that they’re just scared. They’re intimidated,” said Cliff Kincaid, the editor of the conservative Accuracy in Media Report.

“They feel that if they publish these cartoons, they will offend Muslims, causing more demonstrations, perhaps even riots. And that some of their own journalists may be targeted. I think that is, frankly, what explains it,” Kincaid told the AFP.

Robert O’Neil, the director of the Charlottesville-based Thomas Jefferson Center for the Protection of Free Expression, focuses less on the fear factor and more on the relative wisdom of showing voluntary restraint.

“Some may have assumed that there could have been some potential liability. I think that is most unlikely. My assumption is that they were acting voluntarily and chose not to run them on two separate grounds – one, the fact that you have a free-speech or free-press right to say or to print something doesn’t mean that you need to exercise it, and two, that there is a sense that it may actually be undermined if you exercise it in a way that creates consequences and makes it harder to exercise it in the future,” O’Neil said.

“There may even be a kind of perverse argument that as a matter of policy your free-press interests are stronger if you don’t push it to the limit,” O’Neil said.

“There almost certainly would have been consequences if that had been the more common action on the part of editors. For that reason, I think the policy of not pushing it to the limit has some considerable value,” O’Neil told the AFP.

And that is true even outside the bounds of journalistic standards and practices.

“Although we as Muslims hold freedom of speech as one of the unalienable rights of human beings, we believe that press has the utmost responsibility to exercise restraint when it comes to the basic beliefs of human beings,” Ahmed said.

“We also believe that Muslims must use restraints in reacting to these cartoons and use educational methods to teach fellow human beings about Islam,” Ahmed said.

“We must lead by example of mercy and forgiveness, a trait every Muslim must have by very definition of being a follower of Islam,” Ahmed said.

 

(Published 02-20-06)

Fit to a tee

Golf Things Considered column by John Rogers
JSpencerRogers@msn.com  

It’s a slap in the face, the way CBS broadcasts these images into our homes.

Less than 24 hours after a foot of snow fell here in the East, we are taunted by the footage from the Monterey Peninsula where the Tour players and a bunch of lucky amateurs are playing at Pebble Beach.

Sunshine, sailboats, short-sleeve shirts, all kinds of exotic wildlife, that magnificent coastline where the Pacific pounds away – and here we are laid out in our egg chairs and lazy-boys after shoveling the driveway, two portable heaters breathing hot air towards a set of toes still unthawed. Read more

At what price security?

Story by Chris Graham

They ask you to open your coat, to let them look inside your bag, to examine your rolled-up stadium blanket, just to be safe.

It’s a nuisance, sure, but after 9/11, who’s going to complain, right?

“I think since 9/11 we’ve become more tolerant of intrusions on our property and person – that we recognize that times have changed, and that we have to give up some of our personal freedoms to ensure security,” said Michael McCann, a professor at the Mississippi College School of Law and a regular contributor to The Sports Law Blog.

That has generally been the case in sports venues across the country in the aftermath of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. But there has been something of a blowback that has gotten going in recent months – with suits filed against stadium authorities in Tampa Bay and San Francisco related to patdown searches of fans attending NFL games in those two cities.

“The immediate legal issue is our Fourth Amendment right to be free from unreasonable searches and seizures,” said Rebecca Steele, the director of the ACLU of Florida’s Tampa office, which is acting on behalf of a Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ season-ticket holder to challenge the patdown-search policy at Raymond James Stadium.

“The law is really pretty clear – that a suspicionless patdown search is presumed unconstitutional unless certain exceptions exist. What we said, and the court agreed, is that those exceptions just don’t exist here,” Steele told The Augusta Free Press.

A state judge issued a preliminary injunction prohibiting Raymond James Stadium officials from conducting the searches. The case is now being heard in federal court – opening up the question of the future of searches at stadiums and arenas nationwide, which have been ramped up with the threat from international terrorists in the forefront of facility managers’ minds.

“There is a fear of there being violence in any kind of a venue that has large numbers of people. And sports has always been one of the areas with the visibility and media attention that’s given that it’s always a logical and potential place for terrorist violence,” said Lynn Jamieson, the chair of the Department of Recreation and Park Administration at Indiana University.

Fans attending sporting events have gotten accustomed to being asked to open their coats and backpacks and purses and the rest – and don’t view the requests as being an inconvenience or of an intrusive nature, Jamieson said.

“I think about the Indianapolis 500 in this context. When you go to that event, people are bringing in cartloads of coolers and different kinds of things. And it does take a while,” Jamieson said. “They’re permitting it, but the surveillance is greater, and people have adjusted by coming earlier, and the facility has adjusted by increasing the number of people checking, and the checking has become more efficient.

“We’ve adapted to having this as a part of the way that we attend events. It hasn’t really deterred people from wanting to continue to attend events. It’s not something that people object to. They tolerate it because they prefer to be safe,” Jamieson told the AFP.

Facility managers, for their part, are constantly trying to tweak their approach to security to make sure that the twin objectives of a positive fan experience and a positive security experience are met, said Colby Jubenville, a sports-management professor at Middle Tennessee State University.

“It starts with looking at what ultimately is the objective from a fan experience, from a safety experience, from a security experience, of our risk-management plan, of our facility-security plan,” Jubenville said.

“We can throw our hands up in the air and say that this is just impossible, that if somebody really wanted to do this, they could park their car close to the stadium, they could smuggle a bomb into the stadium. All of those things are certainly possibilities. But all that being said, the role of management is to set up a system that looks at continuous improvement, that looks at what a quality experience is for the fan, and also looks at how they provide a safe and secure environment,” Jubenville told the AFP.

That said, Jubenville feels that the increased focus on security could still be nothing more than a “dog-and-pony show” in terms of its effectiveness.

“Essentially what the research that is being done right now on this is saying is that there is not a statistically significant difference in how facilities managers prepare in large markets and small markets for potential security issues. What that tells me is we’ve either got one of two problems – either everybody is doing a really bad job, or security is not being taken very seriously,” Jubenville said.

Agreeing with that assessment is security-technology expert Bruce Schneier.

“We all think of the movie scenarios – the kinds of things that we would expect to see in a movie plot. Terrorists sneaking a bomb into the Super Bowl, for example. The problem is, terrorists don’t care. They don’t care whether it’s a football game or an airport or a restaurant or a movie theater. It doesn’t matter to them,” said Schneier, the founder and chief technical officer of the Mountain View, Calif.,-based Counterpane Internet Security and the author of Beyond Fear, an analysis of security measures in the post-9/11 era.

“At best, you’re going to slow them down – if you’re lucky. Because what you see at stadiums is completely ineffective,” Schneier said.

“What they’re doing by stopping you for a couple of seconds and doing a cursory patdown of your upper body doesn’t make any sense as an actual, effective security measure. It’s a feel-good measure, basically. It’s what we call security theater. So what we’re dealing with here is we’re basing our security on movie scenarios and security theater,” Schneier told the AFP.

The danger there, as Steele pointed out, “is that this could potentially make people less safe.”

“If you have a group of people standing in line waiting to be patted down, for example, that creates a more target-rich environment,” Steele said.

“If you look at what happens in the Mideast, typically what they’re worried about is people with suicide bomb vests. And often they explode those in crowded marketplaces, bus-stop lines, places where people are crowded around and waiting on something. It seems like these measures could be counterproductive,” Steele said.

The bigger issue, from a civil-liberties perspective, “is whether or not we’re going to just blindly trade off our freedoms in the name of security on account of fear without any showing that it makes us any safer or that it’s necessary,” Steele said.

Jamieson approaches this issue from a different angle.

“The question that we have to ask is – are we safer?” Jamieson said. “We’re more alert and more aware. The safety mechanisms, I think, have probably reduced the potential of using venues for things other than playing. So I think yes, we are. But I don’t know if we’ve gotten the upper hand on terrorist activity that we can’t quite predict. The unpredictability is probably the whole issue.

“At least we know that these surveillance mechanisms are deterring the potential of it being more escalated than it was. We’re secure in that fact, I think,” Jamieson said.

McCann, for his part, agrees with Steele that “there’s a limit that we don’t want to cross where it gets too invasive.”

“But I think there’s a general consensus that times have changed, and we’ve been more fortunate than anything else that we’ve only had 9/11,” McCann told the AFP.

“Sporting events, perhaps more than any other venue, would appear to be a prime target for a terrorist strike. And one terrorist strike in a stadium could change everything – be it a bomb, be it any type of attack,” McCann said.
“The fact that we haven’t had that type of event is a tribute to the security,” McCann said.

 

(Published 02-20-06)

Fox station coming to Harrisonburg lineup

Story by Chris Graham

The Harrisonburg television market is starting to get crowded.

“This is a big step forward for us,” said Tracey Jones, the general manager of the Harrisonburg-based WHSV-TV3 and a regional vice president for the Atlanta-based Gray Television, which announced earlier this month that it is adding a Fox affiliate to the local station lineup.

The station will be broadcast digitally and will be available at the outset to Adelphia Cable customers who subscribe to the service provider’s digital tier, Jones said.

The affiliate is scheduled to be up and running by the first of September, Jones told The Augusta Free Press.

The addition of the local Fox channel will bring the total of commercial stations in the Harrisonburg market – ranked 181st among the 210 television markets tracked by Nielsen Media Research with 86,000 TV homes – to two.

The nearby Charlottesville market – ranked 186th by Nielsen with 70,000 TV homes – has been a relative hotbed of activity with the addition of three stations to mainstay WVIR-TV29 in the past 18 months.

“It would be surprising to see this growth in the Harrisonburg market if the population of the region was not growing like it is. Frankly, I’m a bit surprised that we hadn’t seen something like this happen sooner,” said Rustin Greene, a professor in School of Media Arts and Design at James Madison University.

“What this says is that they see the potential in the local market for revenues to grow – enough to justify the investment that they’re making in the technological upgrades needed to make this possible,” Greene told the AFP.

Gray is investing $2 million in upgrades to its Harrisonburg facility related to the addition of the Fox station, Jones said.

“Obviously, we would not try to do something like this if we didn’t feel that there wouldn’t be an advantage to having a locally branded, local-feel Fox station in this market,” Jones said.

“Fox programming reaches out to a different demographic. We’re going to be reaching out more and more to that demographic with companion programming and our local news product as well,” Jones said.

The station will initially use news programming originating on WHSV, Jones said. Down the road, Jones envisions the development of an independent news operation for the Fox channel.
“I can certainly see us taking advantage of the ability to offer a 10 o’clock prime-time newscast at some point in the future,” Jones said.

 

(Published 02-13-06)

Painful cuts could impact public broadcasting

Story by Chris Graham

Supporters of public broadcasting had thought that the war on PBS and NPR was over.

“Basically, what we’re seeing here is that the administration is laying the foundation for the elimination of all federal funding for public broadcasting indefinitely,” said Kristin Wilson, a spokesman for the Washington, D.C.,-based Association of Public Television Stations, reacting to the recommendation from the Bush administration from last week for deep cuts in federal funding for the Corporation for Public Broadcasting.

The administration included a total of $157 million in cuts for public broadcasting in its budget proposals for 2007 and 2008 – including $103 million that would go in the form of direct grants to public radio and TV stations across the country and millions more earmarked for a series of mandated technological upgrades.

The budget plan would eliminate all federal funding for the CPB in 2009.

The impact of the cuts would be felt from Washington to the front lines of public broadcasting. The Harrisonburg-based public-television station WVPT, for one, is facing the prospect of losing up to $150,000 in annual funding, said Bert Schmidt, the station’s president and general manager.

“The impact would certainly be felt on our end in local programming and children’s services. Those things would be the first to be cut. Losing $150,000 really hurts our ability to provide the local kinds of services that people really value about WVPT,” Schmidt told The Augusta Free Press.“Some people say, ‘Let’s wean PBS off the federal dole.’ But what you’re doing is you’re hurting the local small stations the most, stations like WVPT,” Schmidt said. “The things that we would have to cut are educational services, services to the kids, children’s programming. What we would have to do most likely is focus on more standard PBS fare and less on local programming because, frankly, local programming is the most expensive thing that we do here.

“We want to be different and have local programs,” Schmidt said. “But when you have cuts of $150,000, that can be really significant. It’s really, really early in the process, so I don’t want to get people too worried right now. This has been fairly standard in this administration that we have to deal with proposed budget cuts, but fortunately, we’ve seen the American public step up every year and say no, we don’t want you to cut public broadcasting.”

That was the message last year when Congress and the president publicly mulled over similar CPB budget cuts.

“This is something of a surprise just because the backlash was so strong last year to reinstate full funding,” said Craig Aaron, a spokesman for the Washington, D.C.,-based media-advocacy group Free Press.

“A million people signed a petition distributed by MoveOn saying basically to leave the money there, to put it back. We saw hundreds of thousands of letters and e-mails going to Congress over the summer – and big gatherings on the Hill of schoolchildren and members of Congress and people dressed up as cartoon characters. There was a very powerful pushback, and it’s been repeated every time dating back to when Newt Gingrich was in office and tried to take away this money, to defund public broadcasters,” Aaron told the AFP.

The defunding movement has its roots in the pushback from conservatives who feel that public broadcasting serves a partisan political agenda.

“We’ve always maintained that, and continue to maintain that. I think it’s fairly obvious,” said Tim Graham, the director of media analysis at the conservative Media Research Center.

“When you spend any amount of time monitoring the content of public broadcasting, it’s still a liberal playground. They won’t admit that, but it’s true,” Graham told the AFP.

“What’s interesting is that we had this big fight over Friday night the past couple of years. The liberals were upset over ‘Tucker Carlson: Unfiltered’ and ‘The Journal Editorial Report.’ This time last year, these were two of the things that they were fighting about. Neither one of them are there anymore,” Graham said.

“The joke at the time was, good for Ken Tomlinson, he succeeded in balancing Friday night, but how about Saturday through Thursday?” Graham said. “I always thought it was funny that they basically thought that you put on an hour of conservative-leaning programming on Friday night, and suddenly the whole network is Bush TV.

“I don’t quite see where liberals get upset about this being in danger. It obviously isn’t in danger. That said, this obviously continues to be on a routine basis a biased set of radio stations and TV stations,” Graham said.

Schmidt countered that the public broadcasting’s conservative critics “simply can’t be watching.”

“You have to watch to be able to make a judgment. We allow all voices. Sure, there are some liberal voices on. There are some conservative voices on. There’s a mix. That’s the beauty of public television – there’s a wide variety of voices, intelligent voices,” Schmidt said.

“When you have Jeff Ishee or Mark Viette or Richard Parker doing local shows, they’re not liberal or conservative. But what they do is important to the local community,” Schmidt said.

“We don’t do anything with the idea of advocacy toward any political point of view. It’s just a reputation that people who don’t even watch public programming have in their mind,” Schmidt said.

Schmidt is hopeful that Congress will see through the politics – as it did last year.

Wilson foresees a similar course of action taking place.

“The budget proposal goes against what the public wants and what Congress wants. Last year, folks on the Hill and the public were very supportive. We’re working toward getting the same outcome this year. That’s really our only option,” Wilson told the AFP.

Even Graham doesn’t expect anything in the way of serious cuts being approved by Congress this year – with midterm elections looming on the horizon.

“After what happened in this last round last spring, where they began by proposing the cut, and then ended up basically giving them more money after it went through the House and Senate, I don’t think that I’d be any more enthusiastic about this year. I suppose that all I could say is if we can keep CPB’s federal funding even, then maybe that’s a moral victory of some sort,” Graham said.

 

(Published 02-13-06)

A Riverfront runs through it: Development project could reverse fortunes in downtown Waynesboro

The Top Story by Chris Graham

 

One problem that Waynesboro has with regard to its plans for revitalizing its downtown-business district is “the fact that we don’t have buildings,” downtown businessman Len Poulin said.

“But as I like to say, the biggest advantage that we have in rebuilding downtown is that we don’t have buildings,” said Poulin, a driving force in Waynesboro Downtown Development Inc., which has been working behind the scenes for the past three years to build support for a nine-figure redevelopment project that is increasingly being talked about as the next big thing in the River City.

Dubbed Riverfront Commons, the plan calls for the development of more than 1 million square feet of residential and commercial properties on 50 acres situated between Broad Street and Race Avenue in the heart of downtown Waynesboro.

The idea came from a seemingly simple question that WDDI leaders posed to themselves in 2003 – “if you had a blank sheet of paper,” Poulin said, “what could you do in that space?”

“The vision is to get smart about the lay of the land, to try to understand the dynamics of the hydrology, deal with the stormwater issues, because a part of this problem is a stormwater-runoff problem, rebuild the common area smartly so that instead of it forcing water into private property, it becomes a detention area that relieves some of the pressure, and then redesign Arch Avenue into a promenade,” Poulin told The Augusta Free Press.

The trick, of course, comes in the financing – and specifically, finding investors willing to pitch in shares of the estimated $100 million-plus project costs.

“That’s a ton of money – which is probably why they haven’t been able to get anything going,” Waynesboro mayor Tom Reynolds told the AFP.

Don’t be surprised to see the city being asked to take part in some way at some point in the future – with issues involving floodplain management and stormwater management playing key roles in what can be done downtown.

“The city is going to be involved. There’s no way this kind of thing is going to come to pass without something in the way of tax breaks and infrastructure improvements. Developers just don’t do this without some incentives being on the table,” said Roberta Brandes Gratz, an urban critic and author of The Living City: Thinking Small in a Big Way, and Cities Back from the Edge: New Life for Downtown.

Gratz isn’t a big fan of expensive projects like Riverfront Commons.

“The kinds of projects that work better to regenerate and revive downtowns are things like the restoration of an old theater or the development of a farmer’s market. These bigger projects get a lot of attention, but ultimately, what they do is bring in chain stores that end up taking money out of your economy,” Gratz told the AFP.

“Unfortunately, the reality is that I’ve not met a mayor or city council or town council that looks at these kinds of projects with anything resembling a critical eye,” Gratz said. “If they did, they would see that this kind of thing is pretty standard. Everybody tries this, and the fact is, there are enough experiences of this kind of thing not working to know that this isn’t the slam-dunk that some try to make it out to be.

“All you have to do there is look to your west at what Staunton has done to get an idea of how to go about this the right way. Charlottesville is another example. Really, this is not rocket science,” Gratz said.

“Ask yourself – did they do one big project? No. Was what they did gradual, incremental, step by step? Yes. Did it take a long time? Yes. Once it got going, did the momentum stop? No. This isn’t hard. Just open your eyes, ask the questions. And be willing to work at it. Because there really isn’t a magic bullet,” Gratz said.

Poulin isn’t looking for a magic bullet.

“The window of opportunity for us is wide open,” Poulin said. “Albemarle County is seeing tremendous growth, and the board of supervisors over there is looking to control it, quiet it. Charlottesville is becoming cost-prohibitive to live. So if you’re one of these young professionals who’s going to work in one of the research companies over there, and want to live in a downtown environment, you’re not going to be able to afford a million-dollar condo. But you wouldn’t mind driving 30 miles and living in a more open type environment in Waynesboro.”

That aspect of the project caught the attention of William Lucy, a professor of urban and environmental planning at the University of Virginia.

“Projects of this size aren’t common in communities the size of Waynesboro. But the kind of project being talked about – a mixed-use residential and commercial development – is becoming increasingly common here in Virginia and nationally. And with Waynesboro’s proximity to the growing Charlottesville-Albemarle market, it makes sense to try to market to people who want to live in the Valley and commute to a job in Charlottesville,” Lucy told the AFP.

From a downtown-development perspective, Lucy said, “it helps to have a base of customers – and residential development can provide that base of customers for restaurants and shops and other retailers.”

“The new downtown is not a comparison-shopping downtown. It is specialty shops, it’s entertainment, it’s convenience,” Lucy said.

“In these kinds of mixed-use developments, typically what you see first is the residential development. That provides the base for the commercial development. You get young professionals who don’t mind commuting and baby boomers who are looking to put down roots somewhere before retiring. Developments that are attractive to these demographics have become increasingly popular in the past few years, particularly in the last year or two,” Lucy said.

Poulin foresees a growing synergy between Riverfront Commons and the historic Tree Streets neighborhoods located nearby.

“You’ve got historic homes in the Tree Streets, you’ve got modern apartments and condos downtown, you’ve got businesses, and all of the sudden, you get thousands of people here during the day, thousands of people in the evening, and what will happen after that is that restaurants will be fighting to come downtown. You’ll have theaters that will be fighting to open up downtown. There will be entrepreneurs springing up to find opportunities,” Poulin said.

“The market pressures are starting to come together. I think our time is near,” Poulin said.

And near might be nearer than you think.

“Keep your ears and eyes open. What WDDI has been doing is working behind the scenes marketing this project. There are people who have the means to do something and can see the vision of what we want to do here who are seriously considering at this,” Poulin said.

.

(Published 02-13-06)

 

O ‘Shenandoah,’ how long to hear you? Controversy over state-song pick rages on

The Top Story by Chris Graham

 

“Shenandoah” is a fine tune – on that point, few will disagree.

As fine a tune as it might be, though, is “Shenandoah” – which is, depending on who you believe, either about the Shenandoah Valley, a Native American tribal chief or life on the Western frontier – worthy of the designation Virginia’s state song?

” ‘Shenandoah’ is a beautiful song. I’ll admit that the lyrics are somewhat confusing. But we can work through that,” said Sen. Charles Colgan, D-Manassas, whose legislation naming “Shenandoah” the interim state song of Virginia passed the Senate last month.

The presence of a measure tapping “Shenandoah” as the state song – and the affirmative vote in the Senate – came as a bit of a surprise to those who have been monitoring the nearly decade-old drama involving the process for replacing “Carry Me Back to Old Virginia,” which was retired as the state song in 1997.

“It kind of caught everybody by surprise. There was nothing on this for the longest time, and then all of the sudden, the news was that ‘Shenandoah’ was going to be our state song,” said Bob Clouse, a Palmyra composer whose “Oh, Virginia” was selected as one of eight finalists in a state-song selection process set up by the bipartisan Virginia Advisory Commission on Intergovernmental Relations.

“They’re digging back way into the past to replace a song that was also from way back in the past. That says something to me about the process,” said Robbin Thompson, whose 1970s rock hit “Sweet Virginia Breeze” was also on that list of state-song finalists.

“The Senate seems to have moved fairly quickly on this. I’m just not sure that the public has been fully brought into the process,” said Weyers Cave Del. Steve Landes, the chair of the Republican caucus in the House of Delegates, which will weigh in on the state-song issue this month.

“Most of us think that it’s been a long time since we had a state song, and it would be nice to have one. But one question that I have is, if this an interim song, I have a question about what that really means. Does that mean until we decide to address the issue? Does it mean next year? The year after? I just don’t know.

“This issue does need to be dealt with. I’m just not sure if this is the right way to go about doing this,” Landes said.

Colgan said his motivation is to get a state song in place in time for the state’s commemoration of the 400th anniversary of the founding of Jamestown next year.

“The interim tag is a recognition of the fact that we might want to revisit this in the future,” Colgan told The Augusta Free Press. “It leaves the door open to look at this again down the road. I think it’s an important issue now because we’re getting ready to celebrate the 400th anniversary of the settlement of Jamestown. We need a state song now.”

Whether or not “Shenandoah” is the right choice for the interim or for a longer period is a matter of conjecture at this point – particularly given the controversy regarding the song’s geographical references.

“I’m not sure that ‘Shenandoah’ is the appropriate even interim song because my understanding is that the lyrics refer to places like Missouri, and I’m not sure that it’s even referring to our part of Virginia,” Landes told the AFP.

Landes is right on that point. Jeff Place, the head archivist for the Smithsonian’s folk-life collection, said “Shenandoah” is an Atlantic Ocean sea chanty from the 19th century – and was used a lot on inland rivers like the Mississippi and Missouri as a boat chanty in the Midwest.

“That’s why you hear the line in the song about crossing the wide Missouri. It’s actually a song that people were singing on the Missouri River. It has nothing whatsoever to do with the Shenandoah River or the Shenandoah Valley,” Place said.

Place, a native of Virginia, admits that he was surprised to learn that the song that he remembered singing as a child on family trips to the Blue Ridge wasn’t actually about the valley or river that he was going to visit.

“Some people have asked me, ‘Well, at this point, everybody thinks it’s about Virginia, so what does it matter?’ The answer to that question, in my mind, is, if you ask somebody in Missouri what it’s about, would they say Virginia, I seriously doubt it,” Place told the AFP.

So, then, why “Shenandoah”? Country-music legend Jimmy Dean – whose “Virginia” made the cut and was among the finalists to replace “Carry Me BacK” – sees politics at hand.

“They picked a song, and it’s a beautiful song. ‘Shenandoah’ is a gorgeous song, but it has nothing to do with Virginia,” Dean said.

“Our song was written about a place where we live and love, and we tried to capture a little bit of the beauty and the strength of the Commonwealth,” Dean said.

“I think politics became involved. There’s not much that I can do about it. I think it’s wrong, because I think we have a good song,” Dean told the AFP.

“I think the reason they’re going with ‘Shenandoah’ is because it’s safe,” said Dean’s wife, Donna, who cowrote “Virginia” with her husband.

“It won’t get anybody in trouble with their constituents. And nobody can get mad. Nobody’s getting mad about it. It’s a beautiful song,” Donna Dean told the AFP.

Thompson as well sees “Shenandoah” – which as it turns out did not make the list of songs that was designated as finalists in the state-song competition – as being considered a safe choice politically.

“For one thing, it’s an old, old song – so there aren’t any issues with ownership,” said Thompson, who balked at the advisory commission’s request that he sign over the rights to his song in the event that it were chosen as the state song.

“I think ‘Shenandoah’ is a great song. Whether it should be the state song or not, I don’t know. The thing that bothers me is that the legislators are basically deciding amongst themselves,” Thompson told the AFP.

Katy Benko, a Northern Virginia-based country-music recording artist who has recorded a version of Clouse’s “Oh, Virginia,” thinks the attention paid to the political considerations has subverted the selection process.

“Initially, it was fair. They set up a committee, and they had people from all across the state submit songs and picked eight finalists. I figured that that was pretty fair, but they said that we had these eight finalists, and we were going to get feedback from the people of the state of Virginia, and we’re going to pick a new state song. I’m the kind of person that when you say something, you stick to it,” Benko said.

“I just can’t believe that they dragged their feet for so long. I honestly think that there’s some sort of reason that they don’t want to make a decision, and that’s really disappointing, because I thought from the beginning that they should turn this over to the people of Virginia and let the people vote, let the people pick their state song,” Benko said.

“Especially with the Jamestown anniversary coming up next year, you want a state song that really speaks about the history of the state, and how it has been such a fundamental force for the shaping of this country. To pick a song that just has nothing to do with Virginia, it just seems kind of silly,” Benko told the AFP.

What to do about the state song has been a divisive issue dating back to the 1980s, said Bob Roberts, a political-science professor at James Madison University.

“It started with ‘Carry Me Back’ when some experts recommended that you could change a few words and bring it back, but African-American leaders didn’t like that, because they said it was symbolic of a whole era,” Roberts told the AFP.

And now, ironically, another controversy has erupted over a state-song possibility because of issues with the song’s lyrics.

“I think it should have been addressed when we originally dealt with it. Unfortunately, the committee just couldn’t come to a consensus and agreement. It’s definitely something we need to deal with,” Landes said.

That is something that the politicians and the musicians can agree on.

“State songs become state songs because they’re popular amongst the people. And if the people of Virginia want ‘Shenandoah’ to be their state song, then by God, ‘Shenandoah’ ought to be the state song. But if a bunch of legislators decide that that’s what they like, it’s like everything else that comes down the pike. They’d better think about what their constituents are thinking. And they’d better ask them. Because in the end, it’s on them,” Thompson said.

“After all this time, all I want – and all everybody involved in this wants, I believe – is a yes or a no,” Clouse told the AFP.

“It’s like we’re in a close horse race that came down to a photo finish, and there are eight horses in the picture with their tongues hanging out trying to get to the finish tape, and they’ve been frozen in the frame for eight years. We just want to know what the answer is so we can move on,” Clouse said.

 

(Published 02-13-06)

 

Waynesboro elections ’06

The Top Story by Chris Graham

 

Economic-development issues promise to dominate the discussions among the candidates for the two open seats on Waynesboro City Council leading up to the May city elections.

That is, if incumbent Ward D councilman Reo Hatfield has his way.

“I have to believe that people can just look around and see that I’ve fulfilled my campaign promise on economic development. We’ve been blessed to have this economic development, and we’re not going to stop now,” said Hatfield, who has served two terms on city council, the first running from 1994 to 1998 and the second beginning in 2002.

Hatfield emphasized economic development in his 2002 campaign – and development issues have taken center stage since, with the Wal-Mart SuperCenter that was already in the works at the time of the May 2002 elections spurring rapid retail growth in the city’s West End.

“Our success has been obvious, at least from the word on the streets, and I feel like we have opportunities that are still arising,” Hatfield told The Augusta Free Press.

“It’s important to have business leadership in there right now to continue this progress,” said Hatfield, the president of the Waynesboro-based Reo Distribution logistics company.

The man that Hatfield unseated in the ’02 elections – DuBose Egleston – thinks that the self-styled business leadership currently in place on city council failed to foresee impacts on traffic and stormwater runoff from the West End development.

“We knew when Wal-Mart came to town that things were going to start happening,” Egleston told the AFP. “What I would have liked to have seen happen was when Wal-Mart came in, we should have done a comprehensive traffic study on Rosser Avenue and Lew Dewitt to develop a comprehensive plan for traffic. We should have done a comprehensive study on the impact on stormwater. We didn’t have to wait around for the businesses to come here. Do it before they come in. We knew the development was coming.

“We should have had the tenacity to do these things from the beginning. We should have had the foresight to do these things when we approved the Wal-Mart coming here. Hindsight is 20-20, but we have to learn from our mistakes and not let this kind of thing happen again. We can’t afford to,” Egleston said.

The second of Hatfield’s two opponents in the Ward D race – Waynesboro School Board chair Lorie Smith – as well wants to see city leaders looking more at the “big picture” than seems to be the case at the present time.

“We’re sitting in a locality where for many, many years we’ve been ignoring a number of issues that have been allowed to regress. I’m talking about issues from stormwater management to retention of our first responders to equipment that’s ancient. We’ve got a laundry list of things that we’ve allowed to regress, and to date a lot of those things are not getting proper attention,” Smith told the AFP.

“My concern is that we’re growing, and we’ve got to try to establish some vision for where we want the city to go with the growth – and we’ve also got to try to strengthen up the bases from which we’re beginning to grow,” Smith said. “We’ve got to get the infrastructure sound. We’ve got to go back and pick up some of these things where we’ve regressed so that we can provide a vision, and we can work from a solid place.”

Vice mayor Nancy Dowdy – whose Ward C seat is also up in the May elections – says the council should focus more of its time on infrastructure issues, one, and two on diversifying the development base to expand beyond retail.

“I don’t think we should hang our hat on retail at the exclusion of other areas of economic development,” said Dowdy, who does not yet have an announced challenger in Ward C.

“Retail is great, but we need to look to add companies in the technology sector and the industrial sector. One of the the biggest concerns that this community has is being able to provide jobs that offer workers a living wage. Industry jobs and technology jobs can do that,” Dowdy told the AFP.

Hatfield, who got the development discussion going last month with a full-page ad that he ran in a local newspaper touting the growth that has taken place in the city in his term on council, thinks politicians “ought to be judged on what they have done.”

“And look around. We’ve got a downtown that for the first time in the history of this city has property sales of over a million dollars. We’ve got new businesses downtown. We’re setting aside money for the sewage-treatment plant and stormwater management,” Hatfield said.

“Economic development is necessary to allow us to do these things – to allow us to maintain and reduce our tax rates so we can take this burden off our citizens,” Hatfield said.

 

(Published 02-06-06)

 

Will scandal impact ’06 elections in Virginia?

The Top Story by Chris Graham

 

Democrats are salivating at the prospect of being able to ride the wave of the political scandals involving Jack Abramoff and Duke Cunningham long enough that they can take back control of the United States Congress in the November midterm elections.

Don’t expect the wave to crash down on any Virginia Republicans running for re-election in the fall, however.

“It’s difficult for a member of Congress to face questions because of a scandal or because of word of the number of lobbyist-sponsored trips that he or she has taken if there isn’t somebody on the other side to drive that point home,” said Quentin Kidd, a political-science professor at Christopher Newport University.

And more often than not, there isn’t anybody on the other side to offer even token competition for congressional incumbents in Virginia. Kidd said there were just five races featuring a Democrat and a Republican running against each other for a congressional seat in the Old Dominion in the 2004 election cycle – among the 11 seats in Congress up for grabs in the state.

In 2002, the number was four, and in 2000, it was six.

This trend isn’t limited to Virginia, Kidd told The Augusta Free Press - one analysis of the 2004 election cycle showed that only 121 of the 435 seats in Congress featured serious two-party competition, “and if you were to ask the parties, my guess is that they would only consider maybe 30 of those truly competitive,” Kidd said.

This could leave salivating Dems drowning in their spittle, in a manner of speaking.

“The problem that Democrats face is the lack of competitive races nationwide,” said Ed Patru, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, which is heading up efforts to protect the standing GOP majority in the House of Representatives.

Patru pointed to a report by independent political analyst Charlie Cook that showed 28 actual competitive races in the 2004 election cycle. For Democrats to take control of the House, they would have to win 90 percent of those seats in competitive districts currently held by Republicans, according to the analysis.

None of those districts is in the Commonwealth – where the Abramoff and Cunningham scandals could have otherwise made vulnerable at least one prominent Virginia congressman, Virgil Goode in the Fifth District, whose involvement in a controversial Southside development deal involving a defense contractor was clouded by revelations that he had accepted nearly $90,000 in campaign contributions from the contractor’s PAC and its employees.

“Virgil Goode can be elected as a Democrat, a Republican, an independent, whatever he decides to call himself. He’s proven that. He has such a strong personal following in his district that I think it’s going to take something much bigger than this to make him electorally vulnerable,” said Mark Rozell, a political-science professor at George Mason University.

Goode will face a Democratic Party opponent in the fall – likely to be Al Weed, a Nelson County farmer who challenged Goode in the 2004 election cycle and received 36.3 percent of the vote.

Weed said he doesn’t plan to make scandal the centerpiece of his campaign. But that said, he has seen something of a change in the mindset of voters in the Fifth District in his early trips on the campaign trail.

“I don’t find in campaigning a willingness from people to say, ‘Virgil’s my man. I’m not interested in talking,’ ” Weed told the AFP.

“I don’t know how that will translate to votes. I mean, everybody knows all the MZM stuff. Everybody knows that the Republicans have fallen into this mess of corruption up there. Everybody knows that it comes from the arrogance of power. But it depends on where you come from politically. If you’re a diehard Republican, you can kind of excuse it by saying, ‘Well, it was our turn,’ ” Weed said.

“I think, though, on balance, that what it does, the whole issue of scandals, and not only where Virgil has been involved, is it takes away from the whole ‘he’s one of us, he’s a good old guy,’ and puts him in the same boat as all those politicians up in Washington,” Weed said. “And so then when you start asking people, ‘What has he accomplished?’ – that becomes a more meaningful question. Because before, he was one of us, he’s friendly, he goes to everybody’s funeral, he’s our guy, but now they’re not so willing to make that connection.”

Another race in which scandals are sure to take center stage is the U.S. Senate contest expected to pit incumbent Republican Sen. George Allen and Democrat Harris Miller. Allen was in the headlines last month for initially refusing to return contributions from Abramoff and Abramoff clients, then reversing course and donating the monies that he received from the lobbyist to charity.

“We’ll be highlighting the corruption issue as part of a larger pattern of issues related to how Washington is broken,” Miller campaign spokesman Brian Cook told the AFP.

Even with the attention coming from the Miller side, though, the scandal would be expected to make only a minor impact on Allen’s campaign, Rozell told the AFP.

“Even if he had a really strong challenger, his support in the elections would be affected marginally, at best, by this issue,” Rozell said. “For the most part, it might put him on the defensive against a challenger, and take him a little bit off message. But I don’t think that there are a lot of voters who are looking at this as the primary criteria for deciding whether to re-elect George Allen.”

Whether or not voters nationwide will look at the Abramoff and Cunningham scandals when considering their voting choices is anybody’s guess right now.

“The numbers are very bad for the Republicans nationally – by a margin of three to two, voters say that they want Democrats running Congress, not Republicans. And those numbers are the kind of numbers that Democrats had in 1994 when Republicans picked up 50 seats,” University of Mary Washington political-science professor Stephen Farnsworth said.

“So there may be some effect nationally. This scandal actually has the potential to be a very big deal. You have every 20 years or 30 years or so a wave of corruption prosecutions. This could be as big as Abscam. But it’s hard to tell how big this is until things play out a little bit more,” Farnsworth told the AFP.

“Scandals can take on a life of their own, and it can be hard to predict where the momentum might go,” Kidd said. “For example, if Democrats are successful in nationalizing the 2006 midterm elections, as they are clearly going to try to do, and if they are successful in their attempts to tie the Abramoff and Cunningham scandals to issues with mismanagement with regard to Katrina and the war in Iraq, there could be some Republicans who could be dragged down enough to lose their seats.”

“I think it will at least hurt the Republicans’ margins in the elections this year,” Rozell said. “Maybe they’re a little bit protected by the reality that the elections are not for another 10 months or so, and therefore they have a chance to shift the discussion to other issues between now and then. But there is a lot of talk about whether there will be a party-leadership change in November.

“I think if all the talk is about scandal and influence peddling by lobbyists, and the economy takes a downturn between now and Election Day, then we could be talking about really serious losses for the GOP this year,” Rozell said.

 

(Published 02-06-06)